The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The bull trend in equities continued to extend higher while climbing the wall of worry. While the bull trend remains intact, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are alert to a potential major top into year-end as we approach key turning points in rates and the US$. Bond markets remain range bound but would...

NB: Apologies, but there will be no MCP Market Update next week as we will be on vacation. Last week, the bull trend in equities extended immediately higher invalidating the near term top (as warned). While the bull trend continued to make higher highs and higher lows, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are...

Last week, equity markets rebounded more strongly than expected and the lack of downside follow through calls into question the intermediate term top. While the near term rally is overlapping and not clearly impulsive, the potential remains for both an immediate bullish extension higher (green case) or corrective retracement in wave (c) of 4 down (red case). Either way, the primary trend remains bullish for global equity markets leading into year end. The crypto markets continue to reinforce...

Last week, equity markets pushed to marginal new ATH's before reversing sharply lower as expected. The rally was extended and overdue for a corrective decline as warned last week. The impulsive nature of the decline warns that last week's reversal is likely only part of a larger wave 4 corrective retracement. Equity indices formed a daily and weekly bearish reversal candle. Bonds rallied strongly following the weaker NFP jobs report on Friday but remain range bound within a larger triangle...

Last week, the equity market bull trend continued higher for what we expect to be a wave (v) of 3 extension. While this latest rally is very extended, there is no evidence of a tradable top as the bull trend continues to subdivide higher. The big picture rally from the April lows remains incomplete and would still look best with a wave 4 correction towards 50 day sma trend support before a final wave 5 of (5) rally to new ATH's. The bond markets remain trapped within a sideways consolidation...

Last week, equities traded sideways in what appears to be a small degree 4th wave consolidation. The door remains open for a 5th wave extension higher as Bulls continue to climb a wall of worry with no confirmation of a tradable top. The bigger picture bull market remains intact and incomplete as we look for more subdivisions higher in wave 4 and 5 of (5) to new ATH's. Bond markets extended lower but the decline is only in 3 waves so far as it stair steps lower for a potential hard test of...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down with no clear evidence of a bearish reversal. The near term decline appears corrective which keeps the door open for a more immediately bullish 5th wave extension higher. However, there are enough waves in place to complete (v) of 3 and would look best with a larger degree wave 4 correction. The bigger picture equity market rally appears incomplete and would look best with a wave 5 of (5) rally to new ATH's. Rates are threatening to break...

Last week, equity markets continued to extend higher for what we expect to be a wave (v) of 3 rally with no confirmation of a tradable top. The bigger picture equity market rally appears incomplete and would look best with a wave 4 corrective decline before a final wave 5 of (5) rally. We are alert to a near term wave 4 corrective decline towards support at the 50 / 200 day sma. Bond markets turned lower but remain range bound from a big picture perspective. The DXY extended lower to tag...

Last week, equities extended immediately higher to new ATH's in what is likely a 5th wave extension of the wave 3 rally as highlighted last week. There is no evidence of a tradable top as both the SPX and Nasdaq indices rallied to new ATH's. While the minimum conditions have been met for our expected wave (5) rally (new ATH's), the structure of the rally remains incomplete as we look for a wave 4 and 5 subdivision higher to complete this rally. The Russell 2000 and DJIA continue to lag as we...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down in what appears to be a near term corrective decline within a larger degree wave 4 consolidation. The big picture rally appears incomplete as we look for a final wave 5 of (5) to new ATH's. While the rally could extend immediately higher, we'd like to see a deeper wave 4 corrective decline to help set up the next wave higher. Global asset markets remain resilient (or complacent?) given the rising geopolitical risks with no evidence yet of a...