The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities traded sideways in what appears to be a small degree 4th wave consolidation. The door remains open for a 5th wave extension higher as Bulls continue to climb a wall of worry with no confirmation of a tradable top. The bigger picture bull market remains intact and incomplete as we look for more subdivisions higher in wave 4 and 5 of (5) to new ATH's. Bond markets extended lower but the decline is only in 3 waves so far as it stair steps lower for a potential hard test of...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down with no clear evidence of a bearish reversal. The near term decline appears corrective which keeps the door open for a more immediately bullish 5th wave extension higher. However, there are enough waves in place to complete (v) of 3 and would look best with a larger degree wave 4 correction. The bigger picture equity market rally appears incomplete and would look best with a wave 5 of (5) rally to new ATH's. Rates are threatening to break...

Last week, equity markets continued to extend higher for what we expect to be a wave (v) of 3 rally with no confirmation of a tradable top. The bigger picture equity market rally appears incomplete and would look best with a wave 4 corrective decline before a final wave 5 of (5) rally. We are alert to a near term wave 4 corrective decline towards support at the 50 / 200 day sma. Bond markets turned lower but remain range bound from a big picture perspective. The DXY extended lower to tag...

Last week, equities extended immediately higher to new ATH's in what is likely a 5th wave extension of the wave 3 rally as highlighted last week. There is no evidence of a tradable top as both the SPX and Nasdaq indices rallied to new ATH's. While the minimum conditions have been met for our expected wave (5) rally (new ATH's), the structure of the rally remains incomplete as we look for a wave 4 and 5 subdivision higher to complete this rally. The Russell 2000 and DJIA continue to lag as we...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down in what appears to be a near term corrective decline within a larger degree wave 4 consolidation. The big picture rally appears incomplete as we look for a final wave 5 of (5) to new ATH's. While the rally could extend immediately higher, we'd like to see a deeper wave 4 corrective decline to help set up the next wave higher. Global asset markets remain resilient (or complacent?) given the rising geopolitical risks with no evidence yet of a...

Last week, equities continued to wedge into the highs for what we expect to be an ending wave (v) of 3 or C rally into overhead ATH resistance. Despite war breaking out in the Middle East, risk assets remained resilient with no confirmation of a tradable top in equities. Ideally, we'd like to see downside follow through in equities this week for a wave 4 correction before a final push to new ATH's in wave 5 of (5). The small cap Russell 2000 tagged our upside targets before reversing sharply...

Last week, equities extended marginally higher and appear to be wedging into a test of ATH's. While there is no evidence of a tradable top, there is a risk of near term trend exhaustion as the rally potentially completes wave 3 of (5). Note the bearish momentum divergence as markets edge higher. While the rally could still fail and morph into a big picture wave (4) triangle (alternate case) the rally would still look best with a corrective wave 4 decline followed by an impulsive final wave 5...

Last week, equity market leaders (ES / NQ) pushed to marginal new highs unconfirmed by the broader indices (YM / RTY). While there are now enough waves in place to help complete wave (iii) or 3, the bull market rally would still look best with an extension higher towards ATH resistance while holding key overlap support. The bearish alternate is a decline back through overlap support, opening the door to a more complex wave (4) correction (potential triangle). The 3 wave corrective decline from...

Last week, global equities declined following yet another Trump Tariff barb (noise) but the big picture bullish outlook remains intact (signal). The question is whether the corrective decline for wave (4) is complete and the impulsive rally extends immediately higher for (5) up, or wave (4) develops into a more complex correction or triangle. Bulls need to hold key overlap lows and extend higher to help maintain a bullish bias or risk an extended decline back towards a range bound...

Last week, equities rallied strongly through layered resistance in a gap and go following Trump's Tariff capitulation with China. Risk markets celebrated Trump walking back the trade war narrative and kicking the can down the road. The latest rally opens the door to a hard test of ATH's and potential for an immediate wave (5) rally to new ATH's. The corrective decline we correctly identified earlier in the year opened the door to a complex wave (4) correction (triangle) or immediate push to...