The Mars Market Update — Live Research

With the French election now "mostly" out of the way we can refocus on the bigger picture market trends. Global equity markets remain within 4th wave corrections as they burn off overbought readings through time and not price. These corrections to date have been very shallow. The US$ is once again testing key support for our bull case while bonds appear to have topped near term. If we are truly back in risk-on mode, we should see equities and the USDJPY rally while bonds and PM's should be...

Headline risks abound: Donald Trump torched a couple of our near term counts last week in Bonds and PM's while he decided to launch tomahawks into Syria and tweet how the US$ was too strong. This will be an interesting presidency. This week will likely be driven by geopolitical events with the French election due at the end of the week and we will see if the North Korean situation stabilises. My base case is that a return to calm will likely see equities hold Monday's lows and rally in wave 5...

Important Notice: I will be travelling with the family over the Easter break starting Thursday and returning on Tuesday. I will remain contactable but my response time may be delayed. Global equity markets held our near term support last week while US$ strength continued unabated despite weak NFP numbers. Bonds rallied most of the week into our target sell zone only to reverse lower despite the weaker than expected jobs numbers and Trump's trigger happy tendencies. We also saw strong bearish...

What a difference a week makes. The investment community was universally bearish the US$ while we were looking for a bullish turn. The Euro proceeded to reverse 250pips lower after getting within 25pips of our sell zone. Unfortunately, sell orders weren't hit and the Euro's impulsive decline never gave us a chance to join the initial move. The other interesting aspect of last week's US$ strength was that it was not universal - it was mostly explained by European weakness. The Yen's relative...

So far so good. We got the wave (c) down in equities we were looking for as our themes of weak US$, strong bonds and strong PM's continued last week. We should expect these themes to continue early this week but we are approaching our near term targets so we need to pay attention to a potential end in these moves. We are not there yet. We are looking for potential major turns in the US$ and Bond markets this week... we will post updates on Twitter (@MCP_Premium) as near term opportunities...

Last week we highlighted the potential for further US$ weakness with the potential for a bullish reversal in bonds and PM's and topping equity markets. The GBPUSD in particular looked bullish and its reversal played out well. What we didn't see was a clear bearish reversal in global equities but the potential remains. So far so good. Given last week's strong and favourable moves across asset markets, we should expect to see some early back and filling this week (corrective retracements) before...

US equities appear to be completing wave 3 of (3) but there is only partial evidence that a tradable top is in place. The Euro decline ended up being a bear trap as I suspected and tweeted late last week. The US$ traded like buy the rumour and sell the fact on Yellen's speech. The major asset classes are trading with very little conviction so I am trading far more short term right now so as not to get whipsawed. It is difficult to find high conviction trade ideas right now. Key trade ideas I...

Global equity markets are beginning to fracture with European and Asian markets failing at marginal new highs while US markets remain strong. The US$ and bond markets remain range bound and have NOT shown their hand yet. PM's continue to benefit from the weaker usdjpy while CL continues to consolidate in its 4th wave. Last week I posted the s/t ES chart allowing for one more marginal new high for this rally. I have been very clear that we are in a bull market and while in the process of...

The US equity markets rallied hard last week in what we correctly identified as being wave (v) of 3 - complacency, sentiment and FOMO are severely extended as we approach our initial target objectives for this 3rd wave. I suspect we are in an area where we should start to see some increased volatility for equity markets. This is NOT the time to be adding to over-extended longs but rather a good area to take some profits as we are up over 300 ES points since correctly calling the Trump lows....