The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Wishing everyone a merry Xmas and happy holidays over the next week. Given the holiday season, my next update will be just prior to the New Year where I will attempt to provide a big picture outlook for 2017. Our bullish equities, bullish US$, bearish PM's and bearish bond themes continued last week as expected. We are fast approaching an important juncture for the US$ here and direct implications for bonds and PM's. Our long term target for the US$ has been met but the structure is not yet...

Given recent feedback of folks missing trades, I have decided to start posting specific trade setups with entries, SL, Target prices, R/R I am not a day trader so these will be swing and longer term position trades Trading is probabilistic and subject to risk These will be trades I participate in as well - skin in the game The Market Update remains a roadmap but include more trade details This will be done initially on a trial basis depending on feedback from subscribers - we will adjust as...

"I think the ES chart more accurately represents the stage we are in the rally – Ending near term" mcp-market-update-november-28th-2016-gold-silver/ Last week we saw a general pullback in equities following the sharp post-Trump rally as expected. Most key asset moves post-Trump are extended so we should not be surprised with some back and filling in global equities / US$ / bonds. Markets move in waves and not straight lines while gains need to be digested. These trends are not over and my big...

Our primary trends of a strong US$, bullish equities and bearish bonds continued last week as we never got the near term pullback we needed to add to positions. Gold and Silver may provide the best near term long opportunities... Expect US$ to be topping while PM's are forming a potentially important low.  The US equity rally is extended. The positive santa rally seasonality provides an argument that these markets could just continue to extend unabated. I don't think this is an area to add to...

The strong trends identified last week of bullish equities, bullish US$, bearish bonds and bearish PM's continued all this week. These market moves have been unrelenting so I'm glad we called it early and have been on the right side of these markets. There is no change to this outlook into year-end. The nature of 3rd wave moves (what EW analysts refer to as "points of recognition") is that they make it hard to join the trend or GTFO if you're on the wrong side. That has especially been the...

Warning: This update is unreservedly bullish for global risk assets while last week's lows hold. I know I'm going out on a limb here but when the market speaks, it's best to listen. Last week was significant. El Presidente Trump now has a new reality TV show consistent with the broad populist social themes of the last 12 months. This new reality is born of the global inequality experienced worldwide since the GFC. Trump's economic policies of fiscal spending, tax cuts and US$ protectionism are...

This US election uncertainty is perpetuating a whipsawing market - uncertainty creates volatility and a very tricky market to navigate or trade with confidence - Event risk is Very High Last week was important. The SPX broke below our key invalidation level of 2110 and fell straight to the 200 day sma support at 2082 (tweeted last week). As mentioned previously, the 2110 level was critical for the bigger picture structure of the markets as any rally to new ATH's would no longer be a 5th and...

Patience. Not much has changed since the last update. As we approach the US election next week, I expect this range racing to continue. Therefore, I have focused on the bigger picture market structures ahead of this market moving event. While equity markets continue to be range bound in this low conviction area, both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 failed at important resistance levels and spx / djia reversed at the 50 day sma. Fortunately, we identified this triangle structure / correction early...

Global equity markets continue to consolidate within no man's land. While our bias remains bullish, we remain range bound above support and below resistance. As mentioned last week, this is a low conviction area as we wait for the market to show its hand. Last week's highlights were the reversals lower in AUDUSD, Crude Oil and Nat Gas from key defined resistance areas as the strong US$ theme continued. The US equity markets remain range bound as we stay focused on bigger picture spx support at...