The Mars Market Update — Live Research

What a difference a week makes. The investment community was universally bearish the US$ while we were looking for a bullish turn. The Euro proceeded to reverse 250pips lower after getting within 25pips of our sell zone. Unfortunately, sell orders weren't hit and the Euro's impulsive decline never gave us a chance to join the initial move. The other interesting aspect of last week's US$ strength was that it was not universal - it was mostly explained by European weakness. The Yen's relative...

So far so good. We got the wave (c) down in equities we were looking for as our themes of weak US$, strong bonds and strong PM's continued last week. We should expect these themes to continue early this week but we are approaching our near term targets so we need to pay attention to a potential end in these moves. We are not there yet. We are looking for potential major turns in the US$ and Bond markets this week... we will post updates on Twitter (@MCP_Premium) as near term opportunities...

Last week we highlighted the potential for further US$ weakness with the potential for a bullish reversal in bonds and PM's and topping equity markets. The GBPUSD in particular looked bullish and its reversal played out well. What we didn't see was a clear bearish reversal in global equities but the potential remains. So far so good. Given last week's strong and favourable moves across asset markets, we should expect to see some early back and filling this week (corrective retracements) before...

US equities appear to be completing wave 3 of (3) but there is only partial evidence that a tradable top is in place. The Euro decline ended up being a bear trap as I suspected and tweeted late last week. The US$ traded like buy the rumour and sell the fact on Yellen's speech. The major asset classes are trading with very little conviction so I am trading far more short term right now so as not to get whipsawed. It is difficult to find high conviction trade ideas right now. Key trade ideas I...

Global equity markets are beginning to fracture with European and Asian markets failing at marginal new highs while US markets remain strong. The US$ and bond markets remain range bound and have NOT shown their hand yet. PM's continue to benefit from the weaker usdjpy while CL continues to consolidate in its 4th wave. Last week I posted the s/t ES chart allowing for one more marginal new high for this rally. I have been very clear that we are in a bull market and while in the process of...

The US equity markets rallied hard last week in what we correctly identified as being wave (v) of 3 - complacency, sentiment and FOMO are severely extended as we approach our initial target objectives for this 3rd wave. I suspect we are in an area where we should start to see some increased volatility for equity markets. This is NOT the time to be adding to over-extended longs but rather a good area to take some profits as we are up over 300 ES points since correctly calling the Trump lows....

Our primary bullish equity positioning continues to be vindicated as wave 3 of (3) of 5 extends towards our upside targets. We were early in identifying this rally as a 3rd wave and there has been NO reason to alter this stance as we climb the wall of worry. We remain bullish. That is why I have focused on Daily and Weekly timeframes as that is the PRIMARY TREND. If you trade in the direction of the primary trend you will be better off. The US$ found support where it needed to and the Euro...

Apologies for this late update but I am still on vacation and access to charting is difficult. I will try cover the key markets at the moment.  The global equity markets made new ATH's as expected over the past week but these gains were shortlived. The question is whether this rally completed ALL of wave 3 of (3) for our nested bull count. The equity markets have not been able to break out of long term trend channels so the grind higher continues. I have placed horizontal pink lines on each of...

This is just a brief chart update while I am on vacation... The US equity indices continue to consolidate within 4th wave structures. We expect this is a bull flag before another push to new ATH's. The US$ is approaching key support in the 99.50-100.00 area. This support area will be key for a potential end to the US$ correction and near term top in PM's. Gold headfaked us last week and pushed to marginal new highs. I think this rally is ending to coincide with a tradable low in the US$. ES /...