The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The US$ finally broke out of our well defined triangle as the Euro broke below our key 1.1100 support. US equities also broke down from its small degree triangle but held critical 2110 support - it's do or die time for our bigger picture wave counts. A stronger US$ is not bullish for global risk assets including commodities and many reversed lower at important near term junctures. Bulls need to stand up... remember, we still only have 3 waves up for global equity markets in 2016 despite...

Patience is often rewarded in markets like these. Keeping your eye on the prize saves you from getting whipsawed in range bound markets. Identifying that you are in a range bound market (which we have) is the first step in ensuring you don't chase false moves. My last couple of updates have focused on "Triangles" and "Don't go chasing" which are both signs of consolidating (whipsawing) markets. All eyes will be on the FOMC minutes this week where markets will be looking for confirmation of the...

Last week's price action confirmed our structures of tightening triangles across asset classes. We are at a critical juncture for the US$ bulls. It appears to me that the Euro has shown its hand in the short term and we have clear points of ruin for a long Euro short US$ trade. This will have important implications near term for commodities such as Crude Oil which is once again testing the top end of its tightening range. To the equity markets and last week saw a tightening range as bulls and...

I had a moment of clarity this weekend... the stars appear to be aligning for a major move in global asset markets. I have made major changes to my primary counts across asset classes. I think we are about to see some juicy fat pitches to swing at - we are at a critical juncture here. There are a number of near complete triangles forming on the US$ and commodities. Given that commodities bottomed when the US$ topped earlier this year, we are approaching an important inflection point for these...

Welcome to the new Mars Capital Partners Market Update subscription service.  Last week, the SPX declined straight to our measured downside objective of 2120 and held support while bond yields steepened strongly and the US$ held steady. It's a big week for central banks with interest rate decisions from the BOC, BOJ, FOMC and ECB on deck. The FOMC remains critical to the near term interest rate outlook across the globe. While most were surprised at the extent of the SPX decline, we were...

The dichotomy between real world macro trends and bullish asset markets continues. While global asset markets rally to new ATH's and volatility has been suppressed to multi year lows, financial stress indicators are starting to increase. What happens if rates rise around the world? Key observations and risks: The TED spread and Libor rates have been steadily rising indicating financial stress Bonds and Equities are highly correlated at +1 (no diversification) Suppressed volatility eventually...

The markets haven't really made much progress since last week's update and "hopefully" the Northern Hemisphere summer malaise is coming to an end? These range bound markets have shown no follow-through to date but I'm encouraged by the compressing nature of some markets that appear to be setting up break-out moves (specifically TLT and USDCHF). To the equity markets and the SPX/ES continued their shallow corrective declines. Interestingly, higher beta indices and the banks have continued...

Last week's update was focused on a stronger US$, topping equities, whipsawing bonds and caution regarding PM's - so far so good. This week we find out if there is any follow through to Dick Fischer's crazy antics. The US$ rallied and the bond yields spiked higher and while we saw a number of key outside day reversals, it has been my experience that reversals on "news" need follow-through confirmation so that the price moves gain momentum. Fed whipsaws are the norm in this market and...

Equity markets pulled back last week after Monday's new ATH's. There are enough waves in place to complete the impulsive rally since the June lows. While there are no clear signs of a reversal as yet, the recent trend is either exhausted or exhausting. Risk is to the downside. The US$ found support at my 94.00 downside target (actual low 94.05) and has reversed higher (only in 3 waves so far). The US$ rally needs to extend into 5 waves up followed by a 3 wave correction to provide a change in...