The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The strong trends identified last week of bullish equities, bullish US$, bearish bonds and bearish PM's continued all this week. These market moves have been unrelenting so I'm glad we called it early and have been on the right side of these markets. There is no change to this outlook into year-end. The nature of 3rd wave moves (what EW analysts refer to as "points of recognition") is that they make it hard to join the trend or GTFO if you're on the wrong side. That has especially been the...

Warning: This update is unreservedly bullish for global risk assets while last week's lows hold. I know I'm going out on a limb here but when the market speaks, it's best to listen. Last week was significant. El Presidente Trump now has a new reality TV show consistent with the broad populist social themes of the last 12 months. This new reality is born of the global inequality experienced worldwide since the GFC. Trump's economic policies of fiscal spending, tax cuts and US$ protectionism are...

This US election uncertainty is perpetuating a whipsawing market - uncertainty creates volatility and a very tricky market to navigate or trade with confidence - Event risk is Very High Last week was important. The SPX broke below our key invalidation level of 2110 and fell straight to the 200 day sma support at 2082 (tweeted last week). As mentioned previously, the 2110 level was critical for the bigger picture structure of the markets as any rally to new ATH's would no longer be a 5th and...

Patience. Not much has changed since the last update. As we approach the US election next week, I expect this range racing to continue. Therefore, I have focused on the bigger picture market structures ahead of this market moving event. While equity markets continue to be range bound in this low conviction area, both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 failed at important resistance levels and spx / djia reversed at the 50 day sma. Fortunately, we identified this triangle structure / correction early...

Global equity markets continue to consolidate within no man's land. While our bias remains bullish, we remain range bound above support and below resistance. As mentioned last week, this is a low conviction area as we wait for the market to show its hand. Last week's highlights were the reversals lower in AUDUSD, Crude Oil and Nat Gas from key defined resistance areas as the strong US$ theme continued. The US equity markets remain range bound as we stay focused on bigger picture spx support at...

The US$ finally broke out of our well defined triangle as the Euro broke below our key 1.1100 support. US equities also broke down from its small degree triangle but held critical 2110 support - it's do or die time for our bigger picture wave counts. A stronger US$ is not bullish for global risk assets including commodities and many reversed lower at important near term junctures. Bulls need to stand up... remember, we still only have 3 waves up for global equity markets in 2016 despite...

Patience is often rewarded in markets like these. Keeping your eye on the prize saves you from getting whipsawed in range bound markets. Identifying that you are in a range bound market (which we have) is the first step in ensuring you don't chase false moves. My last couple of updates have focused on "Triangles" and "Don't go chasing" which are both signs of consolidating (whipsawing) markets. All eyes will be on the FOMC minutes this week where markets will be looking for confirmation of the...

Last week's price action confirmed our structures of tightening triangles across asset classes. We are at a critical juncture for the US$ bulls. It appears to me that the Euro has shown its hand in the short term and we have clear points of ruin for a long Euro short US$ trade. This will have important implications near term for commodities such as Crude Oil which is once again testing the top end of its tightening range. To the equity markets and last week saw a tightening range as bulls and...

I had a moment of clarity this weekend... the stars appear to be aligning for a major move in global asset markets. I have made major changes to my primary counts across asset classes. I think we are about to see some juicy fat pitches to swing at - we are at a critical juncture here. There are a number of near complete triangles forming on the US$ and commodities. Given that commodities bottomed when the US$ topped earlier this year, we are approaching an important inflection point for these...

Welcome to the new Mars Capital Partners Market Update subscription service.  Last week, the SPX declined straight to our measured downside objective of 2120 and held support while bond yields steepened strongly and the US$ held steady. It's a big week for central banks with interest rate decisions from the BOC, BOJ, FOMC and ECB on deck. The FOMC remains critical to the near term interest rate outlook across the globe. While most were surprised at the extent of the SPX decline, we were...