The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week's update was focused on a stronger US$, topping equities, whipsawing bonds and caution regarding PM's - so far so good. This week we find out if there is any follow through to Dick Fischer's crazy antics. The US$ rallied and the bond yields spiked higher and while we saw a number of key outside day reversals, it has been my experience that reversals on "news" need follow-through confirmation so that the price moves gain momentum. Fed whipsaws are the norm in this market and...

Equity markets pulled back last week after Monday's new ATH's. There are enough waves in place to complete the impulsive rally since the June lows. While there are no clear signs of a reversal as yet, the recent trend is either exhausted or exhausting. Risk is to the downside. The US$ found support at my 94.00 downside target (actual low 94.05) and has reversed higher (only in 3 waves so far). The US$ rally needs to extend into 5 waves up followed by a 3 wave correction to provide a change in...

Bonds and the US$ are my primary focus for now as last week provided important near term clues for the bigger picture trades. My next big play is Short Treasuries and Long US$ but patience is required near term (see below). Stay tuned to my mid-week tweets as I update the important structures... Global equity markets continue to rally as expected and the DJIA has finally made a new ATH to confirm the moves in SPX and Nasdaq. There are no signs of a bearish reversal but as I expect this is a...

Equity markets finally continued higher as expected with the SPX and Nasdaq pushing to new cycle highs while the DJIA continues to lag. The US$ and bond yields also reversed higher right on cue. So far so good... The roadmap for the SPX / ES remains unchanged as we push to new ATH's. I continue to expect that this latest rally is a small degree 5th wave until proven otherwise. The nature of the next decline continues to be critical to the overall bull market structure. Once this rally exhausts...

One of the key tenets of managing OPM is to continually undertake scenario analysis to ensure we don't lost sight of the forest from the trees. Given that the equity bears are finally relenting, I think it is now appropriate to highlight the key bigger picture counts for the markets. The biggest risk for these over-indebted equity markets is a dramatic rise in yields and subsequent rally in the US$. Now that the SPX has begun its small degree 5th wave to new ATH's as expected, it is now...

Important notice: I am posting this weekly update early as I am travelling for the next week and won't be contactable "Intuition is just years of learned experience residing in your subconscious - cash is a position" Late last week I made it very clear to my followers that I was NOT shorting the US equity markets.  US equity markets remained resilient despite weakness in Asia and Europe, strong PM's and bonds. First and foremost, I respect price action as years of experience has taught me that...

What a wild week. The good news is that we identified early Monday evening that we had a tradable low in equities while everyone else was fearing the worst. While the ES was trading 1990, we were looking higher towards 2020 and above that 2070+ That is the advantage of my process - identifying critical turning points when the panicked herd is looking the other way. Now we are looking DOWN. Equity markets rallied strongly from Monday's marginal new lows but it is important to note that other...

Last week's update focused on the implications of Brexit and I warned readers of downside risks and to lighten positions due to an expected spike in volatility... and so it goes. The ES fell 120 pts in 24 hrs, the European and Asian stock markets fell 8+% and the GBPUSD reversed lower in a 10 sigma event. That's what I call volatility. The good news is that we were aware of the possibility and adjusted our trading accordingly not to be on the wrong side of that trade. Whether you profited from...

The markets are setting up for Binary Brexit move. I am lightening positions ahead of a very important market event. While we can all try to be heroes and anticipate major market events, unless you have an edge you are merely gambling. I want to dedicate this update to scenario planning for the Brexit vote so we are not caught off guard. There remain both bullish and bearish scenarios associated with this vote but this creates high probability trade opportunities either way. Following last...