The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equity markets remain within near term corrective structures, US$ strength continues and commodity markets are struggling. The US$ is king and currently driving sentiment for most asset markets. The Bears continue to shout "THE END IS NEAR" (my Twitter stream seams filled with them) and they might be right eventually but in the meantime they have been killed. We don't get paid for being right "eventually"... we get paid for trading the market that's in front of us, not the market we...

So far so good as most of last week's analysis was spot on except for CL which continues to rally higher which was not expected. I am bearish the global equity indices while we remain below their respective April highs. The SPX rallied directly to my 2080 target in 3 waves and reversed lower to close the week on its lows. I tweeted Sunday night that folks should not be short in the hole as I expected another wave higher to complete all of B. So far we have 3 waves up from 2040, then 3 waves...

The US equity markets found support in the 2040 area as expected and rallied nicely on Friday despite the poor NFP report. The question now is whether we completed wave 4 and now heading to new highs (black count) OR the rally is already complete and the decline was a leading diagonal wave A or 1. The next few days should provide an answer as to where we are in the bigger picture. Friday's low is important. The initial s/t rally from the lows appears impulsive so we should expect "at least"...

The key themes mentioned in last week's update continue to play out as expected. The US$ / DXI pushed down to new lows, equities reversed lower (particularly Asia and Europe) and the strong commodity theme continued (which should have been expected given the US$ weakness). This is an important week for global markets. To the US equity markets and I was clear that we should expect "at least" a 4th wave pullback for the SPX / ES and this was not a time to be pushing longs. So far we have had 3...

"A friend asked how I have become so patient in my trading - Macro Trading is like chess... you need to stand back and see the whole board"  This week I'm going to focus on the big picture and likely paths forward in global markets. The global macro backdrop has not changed so this week's FOMC will be critical in determining the near term path for risk assets. I would expect Janet Yellen to continue the theme of lower interest rates (higher liquidity) for longer. We are at an inflection point...

So far so good on our bigger picture themes. US equities made new cycle highs as expected while the European and Asia indices played catch-up and rallied strongly as the US$ finally found some buyers at support. My thesis remains that while CB's around the world remain dovish there is no reason to fight liquidity. Equity markets around the world have only declined in 3 big picture CORRECTIVE waves since the 2015 highs. As long as these cycle lows hold I will remain bullish. I sound like a...

The simple answer is I don't know but the markets are losing correlations across the board. Nothing much has changed in equities since my last update. The bull base case remains on track for new ATH's as markets squeeze the shorts and bears and the only pullback so far is in 3 waves.  I have spent a lot of time reviewing equity markets over the weekend and my only conclusion is to stick with the trend until we see EVIDENCE of a reversal. There is no need to top tick the turn. The desire to be...