The Mars Market Update — Live Research

What a wild week. The good news is that we identified early Monday evening that we had a tradable low in equities while everyone else was fearing the worst. While the ES was trading 1990, we were looking higher towards 2020 and above that 2070+ That is the advantage of my process - identifying critical turning points when the panicked herd is looking the other way. Now we are looking DOWN. Equity markets rallied strongly from Monday's marginal new lows but it is important to note that other...

Last week's update focused on the implications of Brexit and I warned readers of downside risks and to lighten positions due to an expected spike in volatility... and so it goes. The ES fell 120 pts in 24 hrs, the European and Asian stock markets fell 8+% and the GBPUSD reversed lower in a 10 sigma event. That's what I call volatility. The good news is that we were aware of the possibility and adjusted our trading accordingly not to be on the wrong side of that trade. Whether you profited from...

The markets are setting up for Binary Brexit move. I am lightening positions ahead of a very important market event. While we can all try to be heroes and anticipate major market events, unless you have an edge you are merely gambling. I want to dedicate this update to scenario planning for the Brexit vote so we are not caught off guard. There remain both bullish and bearish scenarios associated with this vote but this creates high probability trade opportunities either way. Following last...

Last week's update focused on the topping patterns in global equity markets with the expectations of a bearish reversal. Late last week I tweeted that the ES_F 2116.50 upside measured target had been met (within 3pts of week's high) and the bearish intraday H&S setup which followed through to the downside nicely. We can't call major swing highs better than that as patience paid off once again. Crude Oil also achieved its upside target and reversed lower from the top of our wedge back below...

US equity markets continue their topping process while European and Asian markets have turned down while Bond markets continue to rally as expected and the US$ reversed lower as warned about in last week's update. Commodities and in particular precious metals rallied following the sharp decline in the US$. None of this was unexpected. This week kicks off with Janet Yellen speaking tonight (very important) and a host of central bankers later during the week including the RBA, RBNZ, ECB and BOC....

Global equity markets remain within near term corrective structures, US$ strength continues and commodity markets are struggling. The US$ is king and currently driving sentiment for most asset markets. The Bears continue to shout "THE END IS NEAR" (my Twitter stream seams filled with them) and they might be right eventually but in the meantime they have been killed. We don't get paid for being right "eventually"... we get paid for trading the market that's in front of us, not the market we...

So far so good as most of last week's analysis was spot on except for CL which continues to rally higher which was not expected. I am bearish the global equity indices while we remain below their respective April highs. The SPX rallied directly to my 2080 target in 3 waves and reversed lower to close the week on its lows. I tweeted Sunday night that folks should not be short in the hole as I expected another wave higher to complete all of B. So far we have 3 waves up from 2040, then 3 waves...

The US equity markets found support in the 2040 area as expected and rallied nicely on Friday despite the poor NFP report. The question now is whether we completed wave 4 and now heading to new highs (black count) OR the rally is already complete and the decline was a leading diagonal wave A or 1. The next few days should provide an answer as to where we are in the bigger picture. Friday's low is important. The initial s/t rally from the lows appears impulsive so we should expect "at least"...

The key themes mentioned in last week's update continue to play out as expected. The US$ / DXI pushed down to new lows, equities reversed lower (particularly Asia and Europe) and the strong commodity theme continued (which should have been expected given the US$ weakness). This is an important week for global markets. To the US equity markets and I was clear that we should expect "at least" a 4th wave pullback for the SPX / ES and this was not a time to be pushing longs. So far we have had 3...