The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginMarket Update: February 9th, 2016
Well, since my last update the US Equity markets have continued their C wave declines into pre-defined support. The US 30yr Bond triangle broke to the upside as expected and the US$ continues to whipsaw within its 4th wave structure. Meanwhile, my live tweeting of key support and resistance levels have held well for counter-trend trading opportunities. So far a solid start to 2016. To the global equity markets and risk-off continues to be the theme. While my initial downside targets have been...
Market Update: January 13th, 2016 – Happy New Year!
Happy New Year and welcome to 2016. If the first week is any indication, it should be a wild ride this year. My focus for the early part of 2016 is on the big picture structure of equities, US Treasuries, US$ and commodities. The Macro environment surrounding this remains weak global demand as total debt continues to expand post-GFC, excess supply of base commodities, currency competition between nations amidst a global deflationary backdrop. 2015 heralded the top of wave 3 and onset of a big...
Market Update: November 30th, 2015 – Approaching key US$ and commodity turn
Global equity markets continue to be range bound throughout 2015 with the driving factor the "corrective" decline from ATH's. This presumes that we will ultimately see new ATH's before this multi-year rally is over. My base case (blue count) was the initial decline from 2134 to 1867 was wave A of (4) but we must respect the seasonal patterns and near term market structure which has kept the door open to new ATH's for the Santa rally (red count). Either way, I expect new ATH's to represent wave...
Market Update: November 2nd, 2015 – Key Inflection Point?
Global equity markets rallied strongly throughout October despite and perhaps because of slowing global growth and timely central bank easing bias. Earlier this year, we had been looking for a large 4th wave correction following the completion of the recent 3 year rally in global equity indices. This rally terminated in a large drawn out ending diagonal which we warned of in real time. Since then, we saw a steep corrective 13% decline in the SPX and associated indices which stopped at prior...
Market Update: September 28th, 2015 – Don’t Fight the Trend
The market themes from last week's update continue with weak equity indices, strengthening precious metals and US$ strength. The SPX downtrend reasserted itself following the Fed's Fail as the market failed at first resistance following a corrective rally and declined impulsively. There is no reason to fight the trend at this point, at least until we see an impulsive advance followed by a corrective setback. The ES Daily chart is instructive with price rejection at key trendline resistance...
Market Update: September 21st, 2015 – Winds of Change
Despite news from the Fed that rates will stay low forever, global equity markets were unable to rally. Equities remain bearish as volatility is expected to remain high. We continue to be in a mode of shorting rips as further downside is expected. Commodities are at an interesting juncture, especially Gold which looks to have formed a long term low. I am very bullish gold. USDJPY is also setting up a large degree symmetrical triangle thrust with 3 inside weeks. Interestingly, the euro, pound...
Market Update: August 31st, 2015 – When the Levy Breaks
What a wild week in the markets. The key trend support for US equity markets broke and futures went limit down 5% and then 7% before the PPT stepped up. Forewarned is forearmed as I tweeted the key trend support BEFORE the break. Ending diagonals quickly retrace 100% of the move and that is what we saw last week as all markets I follow found support at previous 4th wave extremes. That is what we expect to happen. With "minimum" downside targets met, the markets have only rallied in 3 waves to...
Market Update: August 17th, 2015 – No Man’s Land
The corrective decline in US equity markets held key support outlined last week as we continue the broad 2015 range trading environment. There are no clear trading signals as we bounced off key support back into the middle of the trading range. While the structure would look best with a push to marginal new highs in my target 2135-2150 area, it is not required as per my alt red count below. Either way, I continue to be a seller at or near new ATH's on the SPX. The Daily ES chart clearly...
Market Update: August 8th, 2015 – Commodities / US$ key turning point
Since my last update, global equity markets failed to make new highs while wide spread commodity weakness and US$ strength continued. The decline in the SPX and DJIA from ATH's remains corrective as 2015 continues to show broad based consolidation within range based trading. There is NO evidence of a bearish reversal at this point and key near term support for the bulls remains at the weekly 50 sma for now (2057). Structurally, while the Ending Diagonal we have been following all year may be...
Market Update: July 21st, 2015 – AAPL clues and US$ Strength
Equity market declines remain corrective so further upside is expected for this bull market. Significant overhead resistance remains for the SPX and DJIA and my expectation is for any new ATH's to be sold once again. I will however await an impulsive 5 wave decline from new ATH's to initiate shorts. No need to front run this market to the short side as the uptrend remains in tact while we remain within the green multi-year trend channel. 2138-50 remains barrier resistance for now for spec...
