The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginWeekend Market Update: June 30th, 2015 – The Dam Breaks
My last update highlighted the potential downside risks to global equity markets with enough waves in place to complete the long anticipated Ending Diagonal. Equity longs were warned well in advance of the impending decline. The SPX finally rolled over and broke the red near term trend line (highlighted in my last update) which accelerated the decline. Tonight should see the first test of the 200 day sma which has supported the 2015 rally. The nature of Ending Diagonals is that they quickly...
Market Update: June 9th, 2015 – Where are we now?
You can't say the bulls weren't warned. My last update on May 19th warned of a potential top in play on global equities and since that time we have seen a slow grind lower back towards the low end of the recent trading range. The clearest warning sign was the trade setup provided by the Dax which highlighted the corrective nature of the prior counter-trend rally. Where are we now? The decline in US equity markets is not yet clearly impulsive but given where we are in the big picture with a...
Market Update: May 19th, 2015 – Patience Rewarded
The SPX and DJIA FINALLY made the new cycle highs that I have been patiently awaiting. With minimum conditions met for a potential top of an Ending Diagonal, we can now start looking for signs of a bearish reversal. Remember, the SPX/DJIA has only met the MINIMUM conditions for a potential top and while measured targets remain in the 2138-60 area, we are now on the lookout for a small degree impulsive decline to signal a change in trend. To be clear, I am not front-running the short side here...
Weekend Market Update: May 11th, 2015 – Still Waiting redux
Equity markets continue to be range bound in 2015. I am looking for a push to new highs in the SPX/DJIA to potentially complete the overlapping rising wedge (ending diagonal) and set up a good R/R shorting opportunity. I patiently await signs of a tradable top. The SPX near term chart still targets new highs in the 2140-60 area which I still consider my sell zone. There is no clear evidence that a near term top is in place. Patience will be rewarded and front running this chopzone will just...
Weekend Market Update: May 4th, 2015 – Still Waiting
Last week, the SPX/DJIA held key trend support in its upward rising wedge. Expectations remain for a push to new ATH's and test of the upper trend line for a potential completion to this 3rd wave rally. We are looking for signs of a major tradable top here but would like to see both SPX and DJIA push to new highs first. The Ending Diagonal patterns (ascending wedge) I have been following for all of 2015 remain in tact and require new ATH's to potentially complete. The near term count is...
Weekend Market Update: April 19th, 2015 – Bulls Fumble – Bears Recover
Bulls fumbled the ball on the 1 yard line and the bears recovered and ran with it. What is important here is a number of equity markets have reversed impulsively lower from key bearish setups. To be clear, no key support has yet been broken but warning signs abound for the bulls. The ending diagonal structure I have been following for months now due to the choppy overlapping nature of the rally could fail at any time and the decline will be swift. R/R still favors the shorts if you play the...
Weekend Market Update: April 13th, 2015 – Top of the Range Again
Last week, US equity bulls held support and are now reaching the top of the recent trading range while European and Asian equity indices broke strongly to the upside. The grind higher in global risk assets continues. ES broke above 2082 near term resistance and extended to the top end of the range. This week will be an important test as to whether it can break through resistance and push to new ATH's. We are caught within the green trend channel and larger blue Ending Diagonal...
Market Update: April 8th, 2015 – Range Bound & Down?
Equity markets remained range bound for the first quarter of 2015. March was an inside month while last week was an inside week... the equity markets are compressing for a fast move. I have been tweeting my updated ES counts and have been expecting a minimum push higher back towards towards 2082 area where y = w for the wave ii red count. This target was achieved on Tuesday. At this point, both the bearish red count and bullish Ending Diagonal blue count remain valid counts. While I prefer the...
Market Update: March 24th, 2015 – Looking for a Reversal
My key themes are that the global equity market rally is at risk of reversing here, while a weaker US$ and strong commodities may be the play going forward. The US$ is key. My last update from 6 weeks ago emphasized that the bullish trend remained in tact and we should expect new ATH's on the major equity indices. So far so good. The US equity markets continue to make higher highs and higher lows, but momentum is diverging strongly as we look for a termination of this 3rd wave rally which has...
Market Update: February 4th, 2015 – Range Bound
US equity markets remain range bound. Ed Seykota's whipsaw song comes to mind... Importantly, many US indices found support at the 200 sma on Monday including the ES, SPX, DJIA, RUT and no key areas of support have been broken. The markets have been compressing since the start of 2015 with January being an "inside" month. The overlapping nature of the rallies and declines suggests we remain within a larger 4th wave structure and chop zone. The European and Asian markets have already broken out...
