The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginMarket Update: December 23rd, 2014 – Xmas Cheer
Macro trends of strong US$, strong equities and weak commodities remain in tact. My caution regarding the recent decline in equities proved helpful as we have once again rallied impulsively from last week's lows. As we approach new ATH's in many equity indices I can't find any reason to fight this trend. Last weekend I focused on the Russell 2000 as my tell for this market... "Either we have a “failed” 5th wave which is very bearish or the recent rally was only wave 1 of [5] which is very...
Market Update: December 18th, 2014 – Mixed Messages
We appear to have completed a 5 wave impulsive decline from the ATH's in the SPX, DJIA and NYA. Other indices such as the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Indices are less clear at this stage. The DJT has regained it's 2 year trend channel and continues to be supported by the 100 sma and channeling strongly. We have too many crosscurrents in the equity markets to get a clear picture of the path forward. At this stage of the calendar year with high volatility and low liquidity I think I'll just trade...
Weekend Market Update: December 15th, 2014 – Patience Rewarded
I woke up this morning to find the folks of Sydney being attacked by a terrorist. I hope my friends are safe and well and this stand-off ends peacefully. In last weekend's update I was looking for a significant top in the US$ and equities. So far so good. Given the bearish US$ signals and over-owned nature of the equity markets, I expect this decline to continue this week. Well, last week's squiggle count of an ending diagonal worked well as 2085 basis December ES was never exceeded and...
Market Update: December 10th, 2014 – Bull v’s Bear
While we welcome volatility back into our trading world and we got the impulsive 5 wave decline in the SPX/DJIA we had been looking for, the bulls did enough to keep hope alive for new ATH's. The bears actually did very little damage. For the reasons outlined below, it is a 50/50 bet right here so I'll await further price information in the coming sessions. SPX - while we got the reversal we were looking for, here are some of the facts: - the impulsive 5 wave decline was 1.618x the preceding...
Weekend Market Update: December 8th, 2014 – Still Waiting…
The US$ and equity market strength continues with no signs of a tradable top or reversal pattern. The USDJPY looked vulnerable last week only to accelerate to the upside and extend its wave iii rally. The DAX made new highs as expected and like the other equity markets in the US, there remains no evidence of a tradable top. I still believe we are close to a significant top in the markets but patience is key as I await a good tradable signal. The ES rally continues as it bumps up against its...
Weekend Market Update: November 30th, 2014 – Fractured Markets
I tweeted the following weekly SPY chart last week to highlight the potential non-confirmation of the recent ATH's in the broader equity indices. While there are no signs of a reversal as yet, warning signs are beginning to develop in various asset classes that should be a warning to complacent longs here. Industrial commodities are getting sold off and key risk indicators such as the AUDJPY appear to have topped and reversed lower. The dramatic fall in Crude Oil and Iron Ore are undermining...
Weekend Market Update: November 24th, 2014 – Bulls try to break-out
From last week's update, "The s/t conflict I have is that while the SPX/DJIA/NDX cash markets all declined impulsively from recent ATH’s, the following have NOT… BKX/DJT/ES/YM/NQ (they look corrective). I would prefer the futures and sector markets confirm the majors so caveat emptor." Inter-market analysis helps manage risk Equity markets charged ahead on Friday with a triple dose of central banking optimism... Abe confirmed he was "all-in", Draghi again threatened to go "all-in" and the POBC...
Market Update: November 20th, 2014 – Are we there yet?
As expected, the equity markets made another marginal new high and the DJIA tagged my 17735 measured objective to the point (actual high 17735.7). Both the DJIA and SPX declined impulsively from recent highs on an intraday basis and found initial support at the 10 day sma. No support has been broken but this is the first clean impulsive decline this rally has had from mid October. One day does not make a trend but it's a good place to start so I'll be initiating low risk shorts here against...
Weekend Market Update: November 17th, 2014 – US$ and Commodities Turn
The big story right now is the US$ and commodity markets, but I'll get to that later. While I was away, the US equity markets locked in a 3 wave corrective decline and proceeded to new ATH's. The market's inability to decline impulsively warned that new ATH's would eventually be made (I'm surprised it happened so quickly). Price always overrides conviction and the rally from the lows has been strong leaving 5 unfilled gaps on its way to new ATH's. There are enough waves in place to count this...
Apologies folks, I will be out of the office for the next 2 weeks and unable to post updates. Trade safe and take care:-)
