The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginWeekend Update: October 20th, 2014 – Decision Time
So far so good. Late last week the equity markets bounced into my target range (1880-1900) where we would expect wave (iv) to terminate. So far we only have a 3 wave decline from the ATH's and another marginal new low (below 1820) is required to confirm an impulsive 5 wave decline before 1926 is exceeded to the upside (key overlap). Market dynamics have changed. Even IF we continue higher near term (red count), this initial decline is likely only wave A with wave C targeting 1750 and below. I...
Market Update: October 16th, 2014 – May we live in interesting times…
Well, we certainly got the waterfall decline I was looking for this week with Wednesday's 60pt decline on the SPX and other global indices. Fortunately, I was on the right side of that plunge. Bear markets are associated with extreme volatility both up and down and that is exactly what we've seen. Bull crushing plunges and face ripping rallies for bears. I have been warning about this since the 2019 SPX highs... hence the caveat emptor comments. Where to next? The SPX declined to where wave...
Market Update: October 14th, 2014 – Don’t go chasing waterfalls
So far so good. Equity markets continue their downdraft as we stair step our way down. No surprise to anyone that's been following my work. Corrective rallies and impulsive declines, lower highs and lower lows, key trendline and daily sma breaks define the trend. Until this changes, the trend remains down. Near term resistance resides at the 200 sma which crosses at 1905. My 1750 downside target remains. This is not a time to be too cute with the micro wave count as the bigger picture nested...
Special Market Update: October 10th, 2014 – Fractures – Bulls need to Step Up
Global equity markets are at very high risk of a major breakdown. We are at a key inflection point and the bulls need to make a stand right here and right now... From yesterday's update... "The SPX briefly broke its 2 year trendline before reversing strongly… straight back to its recent nemesis, the 50 day sma which crosses at 1974. This will be the first true test of this rally." Well, I certainly didn't see this decline coming but forewarned is forearmed! Another rejection of 50 day sma...
Market Update: October 9th, 2014 – Forest from the Trees
Focus on key support and resistance and the rest will take care of itself. One chart stood out to me on Wednesday's early weakness and that was the DJIA which perfectly tagged its rising ending diagonal trendline and reversed higher impulsively (tweeted in realtime). Until this trendline is broken convincingly to the downside the trend remains your friend. Wednesday also printed a bullish outside day reversal. The near term structure counts best as a double zigzag correction. I'm keeping the...
Weekend Update: October 6th, 2014 – Bears Fumble, Bulls Recover
Last Thursday, the SPX finally achieved my initial downside measured target of 1930 (actual low 1926) then reversed and rallied impulsively. There is a reason I study multiple timeframes and markets... to ensure we can see the forest from the trees! All of the US equity indices I follow reversed higher from KEY SUPPORT. We are in a long term bull market so the bears must "prove" themselves. Proof will present itself as a break of Thursday's lows. Until then, the US equity markets continue to...
Market Update: October 1st, 2014 – Time for Bears to Step Up
So far so good. On Monday morning I tweeted an SPX chart with the comment, "Today's gap down into new lows "looks" like a b wave of expanded flat. May have another bounce to 1987 area" and on Tuesday we rallied up to 1985.17 (close enough). It wasn't an expanded flat but that's not the point, it "needed" to go higher and so it did. That is one of the benefits of Elliott Wave, the structure of the preceding waves provide guidelines for future waves. The SPX is warning of a steep 3rd wave...
Weekend Update: September 29th, 2014 – Inside Day – KISS
So far so good. Friday saw an "inside day" following Thursday's strong selloff where we expected at least a counter-trend bounce as posted on Twitter. We have clear lines in the sand here. So far, US equity indices have 3 waves down which quite simply means an a-b-c zigzag correction in an ongoing bull market, OR a nested (i), (ii), i,ii decline leading to a strong 3rd wave decline for the bear market. The pattern is the same for the SPX, DJIA and Nasdaq Indices. I posted the following ES...
Market Update: September 25th, 2014 – Decision Time
So far so good. The SPX/DJIA/Nas/SOX/DJT/BKX all declined impulsively from last week's target highs. The SPX found strong support at the 50 day sma and confluence of trendline support. From there we witnessed a strong bounce to the 50% retracement of the preceding decline which is what you'd expect from a 2nd wave. "Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends... At this point, investors are thoroughly...
Weekend Update: September 22nd, 2014 – Patience Rewarded – Targets Hit
The SPX, DJIA and Nasdaq indices all hit my long awaited price targets and shorting levels on Friday and then promptly reversed in what can only be described as an exhaustion gap. There are enough waves in place to count this equity market rally as complete so now we have to see an impulsive decline that breaks key support before we can confirm a change of trend. Both the SPX and DJIA reached my measured targets within 1 pt... not bad 😉 While it may be tempting to shout "the Top is in", I...
