The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities continued to wedge into the highs for what we expect to be an ending wave (v) of 3 or C rally into overhead ATH resistance. Despite war breaking out in the Middle East, risk assets remained resilient with no confirmation of a tradable top in equities. Ideally, we'd like to see downside follow through in equities this week for a wave 4 correction before a final push to new ATH's in wave 5 of (5). The small cap Russell 2000 tagged our upside targets before reversing sharply...

Last week, equities extended marginally higher and appear to be wedging into a test of ATH's. While there is no evidence of a tradable top, there is a risk of near term trend exhaustion as the rally potentially completes wave 3 of (5). Note the bearish momentum divergence as markets edge higher. While the rally could still fail and morph into a big picture wave (4) triangle (alternate case) the rally would still look best with a corrective wave 4 decline followed by an impulsive final wave 5...

Last week, equity market leaders (ES / NQ) pushed to marginal new highs unconfirmed by the broader indices (YM / RTY). While there are now enough waves in place to help complete wave (iii) or 3, the bull market rally would still look best with an extension higher towards ATH resistance while holding key overlap support. The bearish alternate is a decline back through overlap support, opening the door to a more complex wave (4) correction (potential triangle). The 3 wave corrective decline from...

Last week, global equities declined following yet another Trump Tariff barb (noise) but the big picture bullish outlook remains intact (signal). The question is whether the corrective decline for wave (4) is complete and the impulsive rally extends immediately higher for (5) up, or wave (4) develops into a more complex correction or triangle. Bulls need to hold key overlap lows and extend higher to help maintain a bullish bias or risk an extended decline back towards a range bound...

Last week, equities rallied strongly through layered resistance in a gap and go following Trump's Tariff capitulation with China. Risk markets celebrated Trump walking back the trade war narrative and kicking the can down the road. The latest rally opens the door to a hard test of ATH's and potential for an immediate wave (5) rally to new ATH's. The corrective decline we correctly identified earlier in the year opened the door to a complex wave (4) correction (triangle) or immediate push to...

Last week, equity markets extended higher as expected and are now testing a key inflection zone. There are now enough waves in place to complete a counter-trend 3 wave rally into layered resistance. Bears need to make a stand this week to reverse last week's rally or risk a bullish extension. Gap and go or pop and drop as Trump rolls over from his hard China Tariff ambit claim (as China calls his bluff). Key inflection for the bigger picture trend. Bond markets extended lower as expected as we...

Last week, global equity markets extended higher as expected and are now approaching measured upside targets. We continue to see this rally as part of an ongoing wave (4) triangle consolidation within a bigger picture bull market rally. So far, the rally is only in a corrective 3 waves up nearing equality resistance. We are alert for the potential for a bear reversal and near term tradable top. The bond markets reversed lower from resistance and opens the door to a wave (c) or 3 decline this...

Last week, equities held near term support and rallied strongly as expected to help maintain our bullish bias for wave (c) higher. We continue to see this corrective rally as part of an ongoing sideways wave (4) triangle consolidation. Near term bulls remain in control while above last week's lows as we look for an extension higher towards equality targets. While the potential for continued volatility remains, our bullish outlook remains intact while above the Trump Tariff Tantrum lows. Global...

Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down in what is expected to be a big picture wave (4) triangle consolidation. The latest rally is only in a corrective 3 waves up so far and while downside risks remain, bulls remain in control while key support holds. Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global growth we should expect range bound markets for the next few months. Any break to new swing lows opens the door to a more bearish outlook. Support is support...

From last week's update - "Equity Market Bulls need to hold the line here and limit the decline to a corrective 3 waves down to help maintain the big picture bull trend. " Last week, equities held key support and rallied strongly as Trump started to flip flop over tariifs. The equity market decline from ATH's is only in a corrective 3 waves down into strong support followed by a 3 wave rally so far. Bulls need to extend this rally immediately higher in 5 waves to help open the door to a more...