The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginBrief Market Update: September 17th, 2014 – New DJIA ATH
One thing that seemed to go largely unnoticed on Tuesday was the DJIA made a new ATH and the rise appears incomplete. That coupled with a bullish engulfing day across indices rallying strongly from the 50 sma and closing straight back above the 5, 10 and 20 sma suggest this bull market isn't done yet. I would still like to see the DJIA have a run at the 17300-350 area as it completes wave (v). Ideally, we would like to see the SPX confirm the new DJIA ATH with a final push towards the 2015-20...
Weekend Update: September 14th, 2014 – Cracks Appear
"Now things get murky. There remains the potential of an irregular top at 2011 as previously discussed (red count) and we have started a “nested” 3rd wave decline OR a more complex 4th wave structure with new ATH’s still to come (preferred black count). It’s a line ball call here but the structure of the decline still “looks” corrective and we have only declined to the area of the prior 4th wave but is trading “heavy”. Trade back above 2001 will likely open the door to new ATH’s. The market...
Brief Market Update: September 10th, 2014 – Picking up Pennies
The SPX traded below 1990 which was key support for my preferred count. Now things get murky. There remains the potential of an irregular top at 2011 as previously discussed (red count) and we have started a "nested" 3rd wave decline OR a more complex 4th wave structure with new ATH's still to come (preferred black count). It's a line ball call here but the structure of the decline still "looks" corrective and we have only declined to the area of the prior 4th wave but is trading "heavy"....
Weekend Update: September 8th, 2014 – Last Gasp Stars Align
Equity markets found strong support on Friday where the SPX looks to have completed wave c down of an expanded flat (iv), opening the door for a push to new highs this week while 1990 holds (red preferred count). Below 1990 and all bets are off. I tweeted this higher probability count late last week. Ideally, the SPX now pushes higher towards the 2030 measured target area where (v) = (i) to set up a strong shorting opportunity. Friday's rally was clearly impulsive and the trend remains up....
Market Update: September 4th, 2014 – Fun and Games
Hmmm, things just got a little more complicated with Wednesday's pop and drop. The SPX pattern still looks incomplete and we have 3 waves into the highs suggesting new highs still to come. There is a low probability that 2009 completed the pattern (green count) but we need more information from Mr Market. Bulls should not be complacent here as they are living on borrowed time, particularly when the DJT and Nasdaq Indices look quite bearish.The DJIA is also sending mixed messages with its...
Weekend Update: September 1st, 2014 – Nearing a turn
The SPX and DJIA pushed to new ATH's last week as expected and we are on the cusp of completing wave v of (v) of (5) for this rally. We don't yet have a completed structure for this advance. Back on August 21st I discussed the implications of the "nested" rally from the 1904 lows... "Given the nested nature of the advance, we need to be able to count 9 waves to complete the impulsive structure". The near term SPX count shows we still need a final impulse to new ATH's for wave 9 so the rally...
Weekend Update: August 25th, 2014 – Almost There…
Equity market strength continued last week and the 5th wave rally appears incomplete. Meanwhile, the European indices continue to lag significantly and the rise looks corrective in nature. Ideally we need to see a couple more 4th and 5th waves unwind higher on the SPX while the DJIA would look better with new ATH's. The US$ also continued higher and we appear to be at an important inflection point for the USDJPY and Nikkei 225.The SPX appears to have unfinished business to the upside but we...
Market Update: August 21st, 2014 – US$ Topping?
My weekend update caught me zigging when I should have zagged. In the end the market stated it's intention and continued to push higher in what appears to be a nested 3rd wave towards new ATH's. "A close above gap resistance would likely lead to new ATH’s" - that seems to be where we're heading. I guess I should have just stuck to my primary count which was correct all along.The SPX counts best as a nested 3rd wave advance to new ATH's. With the Nasdaq indices at new highs but Russell 2000 and...
Nat Gas – Stalking Longs against 3.727
I don't often trade Nat Gas but I can't resist the r/r on a long around 3.765 targeting "at least" 4.02 to the upside with risk limited to new lows below 3.727. The structure of the recent decline is a clear 3 waves reaching equality where c = a. Nat Gas found strong support at the weekly 200 sma and prior wave lows (double bottom). The rally from the recent lows appears impulsive. If the count is correct, we need to see an impulsive rally without taking out recent lows. This is not investment...
Weekend Update: August 18th, 2014 – Warning Signs
The equity outlook just got a whole lot more complicated. On Friday, the SPX reversed from the 1965-70 gap resistance I highlighted Thursday night (HOD 1964.04) and overlapped the potential wave (i) high (1944.9) on the sharp decline. This has Elliott Wave implications. We either have a complete 3 wave corrective structure terminating at the 1964 highs (immediately bearish red count), nested bullish series of 1's and 2's pushing to new ATH's (black count) OR something far more complicated. We...
