The Mars Market Update — Live Research

My weekend update caught me zigging when I should have zagged. In the end the market stated it's intention and continued to push higher in what appears to be a nested 3rd wave towards new ATH's. "A close above gap resistance would likely lead to new ATH’s" - that seems to be where we're heading. I guess I should have just stuck to my primary count which was correct all along.The SPX counts best as a nested 3rd wave advance to new ATH's. With the Nasdaq indices at new highs but Russell 2000 and...

I don't often trade Nat Gas but I can't resist the r/r on a long around 3.765 targeting "at least" 4.02 to the upside with risk limited to new lows below 3.727. The structure of the recent decline is a clear 3 waves reaching equality where c = a. Nat Gas found strong support at the weekly 200 sma and prior wave lows (double bottom). The rally from the recent lows appears impulsive. If the count is correct, we need to see an impulsive rally without taking out recent lows. This is not investment...

The equity outlook just got a whole lot more complicated. On Friday, the SPX reversed from the 1965-70 gap resistance I highlighted Thursday night (HOD 1964.04) and overlapped the potential wave (i) high (1944.9) on the sharp decline. This has Elliott Wave implications. We either have a complete 3 wave corrective structure terminating at the 1964 highs (immediately bearish red count), nested bullish series of 1's and 2's pushing to new ATH's (black count) OR something far more complicated. We...

SPX has met my secondary target of 1956-58 which is 0.618 retracement of the impulsive decline and 50 sma. The structure and momentum of this advance from 1928 "looks" like a (c) wave (green count) rather than a 3rd wave unless it accelerates markedly from here. Strong trade above this area will focus on the next target zone of 1965-70 where (c) = (a) and the large wave iii gap fill. So far, the rally is in 3 waves so the green count looks favorable. However, the bulls are still in charge and...

As expected, the SPX found strong resistance in my targeted 1942-48 range (high 1944.9) and corrected accordingly. While the decline looks corrective in nature and found support at the 0.382 retracement which is ideal for a wave (b) retrace, it is too early to tell if a tradable low is in place. It must be noted that the red alternate immediately bearish count is still valid but preference must still be given to the bull case.The ES chart shows a clear 5 wave impulsive rally from last week's...

US equity markets reversed higher on Friday from previously identified key support levels for the SPX and DJIA. So far so good. It isn't the cleanest 5th wave which leaves the door open for another retest, but support is support until broken. Friday's reversal higher on "bad" news after the futures cleared out remaining stops was bullish (bullish reversal of bearish engulfing day). While the SPX slightly undercut its 100 sma, the DJIA held strong at the 200 sma and trendline support at 16300...

SPX now has enough waves in place to complete the decline and found support at my 1910 level (actual low 1911.45). I am a buyer of equities here. There is no guarantee that the decline won't extend but we can't trade on if's and maybe's. We have a potentially complete structure with likely termination at the 100 sma and broadening trendline support with bullish 5th wave momentum divergence and daily doji. If my preferred bullish count is correct, we should see an impulsive rally back to new...

Well, I'm back from my sojourn and the markets have followed my projected price path well. No surprises here as US equity markets unwound the remaining 4th and 5th waves while outperforming the European markets as suggested a month ago. The decline from the recent all-time-highs in SPX is clearly impulsive and requires a small degree 4th and 5th wave to complete the initial decline. Expect strong support at the 100 sma and red trend channel at 1910 early next week. The nature of the next...

The global Fed stimulus induced bull market continues unabated and has morphed into an impulsive rise, reducing the likelihood of an ending diagonal as previously thought. There continues to be no reason to short this ongoing bull market until we see an impulsive decline. The SPX appears to be in the process of completing a wave (iii) of (5) rally with (iv) and (v) to come. We must respect the ongoing bullish price action with new RSI highs effectively eliminating the bearish momentum...