The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginMarket Update: May 22nd, 2014 – Goal Line Stand
The bearish wedge formation across most equity indices I follow warn that we remain in a topping process for the 5 year bull market. My weekend update discussed that while last week's SPX/DJIA high was sufficient for the final wave, we needed to see downside follow through to confirm. Nothing has changed from a bigger picture perspective. The bears need to make a goal line stand right here or risk getting trampled. 1888-92 is the inflection point for the bears for this rally to be an a-b-c...
Weekend Update: May 19th, 2014 – Are we there yet?
So far, so good. Last week, the SPX finally made the new ATH I had been waiting for to potentially complete the Ending Diagonal 5th and final wave and promptly reversed lower. The trend is your friend until it bends. From last week's update: "We are now in a final wave thrust from the triangle prior to a downside reversal" "Therefore, I am alert to a reversal as soon as the SPX makes new ATH's" There are now enough waves in place to suggest the Ending Diagonal structure on the DJIA and SPX is...
Market Update: May 13th, 2014 – Almost There…
So far so good... The Euro reached my 1.40 upside target and sell zone and reversed lower; the DJIA and ES have made new highs (as expected with a triangle thrust), the SPX is less than 1 pt from new ATH's and the DAX is breaking out of its 2014 consolidation. I continue to believe that these are all ending moves and my patience of awaiting new ATH's on the SPX/DJIA/DAX is being rewarded. In last week's SPX analysis, I posted... "wave B Running Triangle terminating in the 1857-67 support area...
Market Update: May 9th, 2014 – Euro Target Met
Patience and discipline are rewarded. My EUR/USD 1.40 sell zone target was hit on Thursday (HOD 1.3993 thanks to Draghi) and promptly reversed lower for an outside key reversal day and 150 pip decline. Like the SPX, it has been forming an ending diagonal, a terminal structure. A break of the blue and red trendlines would help confirm a larger degree change in trend. The SPX failed once again to take out new highs but the decline remains corrective as per previous analysis.The SPX has continued...
Market Update: May 7th, 2014 – Picking up Pennies
Trading 5th waves is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This week has seen a continuation of the weak US$ and strong bond theme, coupled with range trading in equity markets. The SPX is at near term support identified over the weekend (1860-65) while the BKX is trading right on its 200 sma and the Russell 2000 has closed below its 200 sma. The EUR/USD has pushed higher as expected towards my 1.40 target while the USD/JPY has fallen to trendline support. The SPX decline from...
Weekend Update: May 4th, 2014 – Wedging Continues – Risks Remain
The equity markets continued their range bound trading last week, providing no clear direction. Rips are sold and dips are bought resulting in choppy sideways trading with little or no conviction. The SPX and DJIA have been unable to make new ATH's despite strong NFP's. While I patiently await new highs in the generals, topping patterns are a process and rarely an "event" as the broad markets continue to be more fractured. There is no evidence of an intermediate term reversal yet although...
Brief Market Update: May 2nd, 2014 – Caution!!!
While I have been and continue to expect new ATH's in the SPX and DJIA, last night's new high failure bothers me. When I see asymmetric r/r setups and potentially complete structures I take note, especially when my base case assumed a direct push to new ATH's. Respect price action first and consider opinions later. These are the facts: Enough waves for a complete 5 up and requisite divergence at new highs for SPX Small caps continue to lag the generals Banks continue to lag Bonds remain well...
Market Update: May 1st, 2014 – Almost there…
Just a brief update as we are now within striking distance of important upside targets for SPX, DJIA and EUR/USD. While the SPX and DJIA are on the verge of new ATH's, many other markets are lagging including the Banks, higher beta indices and peripheral equity markets. The generals continue to charge up the hill while the soldiers refuse to fight (a leader without followers is just a guy taking a walk). This fractured market tells me that the equity market rally is nearing its end. The SPX...
Weekend Update: April 28th, 2014 – Forest from the Trees…
Last week's price action in global equity markets was telling. The key from an EW perspective is that for the last month we have seen nothing but overlapping 3 wave moves in both directions. This is the signature of a bull market that is exhausting. Of particular note are the wedging patterns forming on the SPX and DJIA which are ending structures. The 3 wave decline from the ATH's also suggest we need one more new ATH to complete this ending diagonal terminal pattern. There is a reason I have...
Weekend Update: April 21st, 2014 – Bears Fumble the Ball
The bears couldn't get the job done last week and fumbled the ball. The SPX held corrective support in the aforementioned 1810/15 area and rallied throughout the holiday shortened week to close back above the respective 100/50/20/10 sma's. The SPX is now back in the middle of April's range with an inside week pushing up against pivot resistance in the 1870/75 area. The near term wave structure shows a clear 3 wave decline from ATH's (corrective) and leaves the door open for an immediate push...
