The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Well, the SPX completed a nice 5 waves down last night in line with expectations and my projected roadmap. The US$ pushed to marginal new lows in what I expect to be the final decline before the strong US$ reasserts itself. There is no clear evidence of a change in trend for the US$ yet, but I think we are close.SPX completed a 5 wave impulsive decline from the highs for either wave (a) of (iv) or wave i of a more significant decline. I have initiated shorts in ESU3 with Stops above recent...

What I'm expecting with this short gold position... targeting an impulsive c wave decline to below 1308 GCQ3 60m

Yesterday was one of those days where my analysis of the charts was pretty much spot on but my trade execution was terrible. The market charges a tuition fee for learning and I paid my dues yesterday. While only a small loss on a small position, the bigger issue was the opportunity cost of losing my position. Trading is all about the probability of outcomes and you need to place your bets to see the cards. Cutting my GBP/USD short position BEFORE the market proved itself was a mistake. C'est...

Initiating small Euro short here...  worth the risk / rewardWas stopped out on the top tick, bugger. The reversal lower following the marginal new high suggests the top may be in so I'll look for another opportunity to short... EUR/USD 60m

Initiating small GBP short here... will add on confirmation of 5 downStopped myself out at Breakeven - I didn't like the structure of the decline. Time to reassess. Looks like it needs another new high... GBP/USD 60m

The US equity markets provided a little hope for the bears last night. The potential completion of the ES ending diagonal we were watching and a nice small 5 waves down from the SPX high. The ENQ provided another 5 waves down to match the decline from the highs last week giving us clear points of ruin for the bull and bear case. GBP/USD has now reached the 0.618 retracement of the prior decline in what appears to be a completed a-b-c zigzag counter-trend rally. Dr Copper may also be setting up...

This 5th wave rally in US equity markets has achieved its minimum objective with an all-time-high. The ES looks as though it is completing an ending diagonal 5th wave which should be fully retraced (credit goes to one of our contributors on the Deepwaveanalytics Forum who goes by the name of BenedictArnold who spotted this setup). It is unclear whether this is the final 5th wave or if we need another 4th and 5th to complete the pattern. Either way, I am on alert for a change in direction (5...

Now that my post-vacation haze is clearing, it's time for me to play devil's advocate on my strong US$ thesis... I have spent some time reviewing long term US$ charts to gain a clearer understanding of where we are in the bigger picture.DXI weekly clearly shows the choppy overlapping nature of the US$ rise from the 2008 lows. This is NOT what you'd expect for a 3rd wave rally. The bullish case has the DXI nesting a lot of 1's and 2's in an extensive basing pattern. The bearish option is that...