The Mars Market Update — Live Research

What I'm expecting with this short gold position... targeting an impulsive c wave decline to below 1308 GCQ3 60m

Yesterday was one of those days where my analysis of the charts was pretty much spot on but my trade execution was terrible. The market charges a tuition fee for learning and I paid my dues yesterday. While only a small loss on a small position, the bigger issue was the opportunity cost of losing my position. Trading is all about the probability of outcomes and you need to place your bets to see the cards. Cutting my GBP/USD short position BEFORE the market proved itself was a mistake. C'est...

Initiating small Euro short here...  worth the risk / rewardWas stopped out on the top tick, bugger. The reversal lower following the marginal new high suggests the top may be in so I'll look for another opportunity to short... EUR/USD 60m

Initiating small GBP short here... will add on confirmation of 5 downStopped myself out at Breakeven - I didn't like the structure of the decline. Time to reassess. Looks like it needs another new high... GBP/USD 60m

The US equity markets provided a little hope for the bears last night. The potential completion of the ES ending diagonal we were watching and a nice small 5 waves down from the SPX high. The ENQ provided another 5 waves down to match the decline from the highs last week giving us clear points of ruin for the bull and bear case. GBP/USD has now reached the 0.618 retracement of the prior decline in what appears to be a completed a-b-c zigzag counter-trend rally. Dr Copper may also be setting up...

This 5th wave rally in US equity markets has achieved its minimum objective with an all-time-high. The ES looks as though it is completing an ending diagonal 5th wave which should be fully retraced (credit goes to one of our contributors on the Deepwaveanalytics Forum who goes by the name of BenedictArnold who spotted this setup). It is unclear whether this is the final 5th wave or if we need another 4th and 5th to complete the pattern. Either way, I am on alert for a change in direction (5...

Now that my post-vacation haze is clearing, it's time for me to play devil's advocate on my strong US$ thesis... I have spent some time reviewing long term US$ charts to gain a clearer understanding of where we are in the bigger picture.DXI weekly clearly shows the choppy overlapping nature of the US$ rise from the 2008 lows. This is NOT what you'd expect for a 3rd wave rally. The bullish case has the DXI nesting a lot of 1's and 2's in an extensive basing pattern. The bearish option is that...

Well, I didn't go to Spain on vacation but maybe I should have, to see the running of the bulls. My caution regarding the bearish case was well warranted with a break above my bearish "line of demarcation" of SPX 1654.19 as posted in my July 1st Update. With new all-time-highs in US equity markets, we confirmed that the June decline was merely a 3-3-5 flat correction in an ongoing bull market. Since 2009, we continue to see higher highs and higher lows, the very definition of a bull market....

Closed remaining short positions and going on vacation with no residual market exposure. Happy 4th of July everyone.