The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The bears dropped the ball yesterday as the bulls stopped me out of my remaining ES shorts at 1588. Given I was short at 1645 and had taken half profits at 1570, I'm happy to take +66 pts out of the market for this move. When in doubt, get out! I warned yesterday that for the ending diagonal to work, we needed a gap DOWN at the open which we didn't get. I tried a short stab at ES 1596 (SL @ 1598) but covered at effectively breakeven (+0.75 pts). It is now up to the bears to prove themselves....

Not much to report today so I'll keep it brief. Both the bull & bear counts are alive and well which makes this juncture a little frustrating. Bigger picture levels of 1600 and 1560 are the ones to watch for potential changes in momentum. Yesterday I warned that "ES - in the unlikely event that ES is able to push back above 1575, I would expect 1590 to provide strong resistance". Once ES pushed through the BB mid point, it slowly worked its way higher to the upper BB but was turned down at...

Well, the weekend update was right on the money with a nice gap and run lower in global equity markets. I suspect today's afternoon rally will be fully retraced as we stair-step our way lower. The bulls can take comfort by the fact that the SPX and DJIA achieved their measured downside objectives for a 3-3-5 (a-b-c) Flat correction where c = a and rallied nicely off 1560. I do not think this is a correction and we continue to see lower lows for the equity indices directly. There are just too...

Last week provided the key bearish reversal I've been looking for... Weekly reversal patterns at critical inflection points provide excellent swing highs to trade against. I have key weekly bearish reversals on the following markets I follow: SPX, ES, DJIA, Nasduck Composite, DJU, HYG, JNK, SOX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXI, Crude Oil and Brent Crude. This global asset fire sale occurred at a time when bond yields around the world rose sharply higher (eg., US 10 year yield rose almost 50 bps) and...

Significant declines across all asset Markets with US equities down 2.5%, Europe down 3.0%, Gold down 6.4%, Silver down 8.3%, Crude Oil down 3.4%, US 10 year Yields rose 8.0%, etc. despite the $42.7bln liquidity injection to the primary dealers. There was nowhere to hide today except in cash as bonds, stocks, commodities and PM's were all sold off. The SPX achieved my minimum downside price target with a new low below 1598. The intermediate uptrend channel has now been decisively broken and...

Love it when a plan comes together... Bernanke followed the script perfectly. SPX reversed down hard from my sell zone, GBP/USD accelerated lower, EUR/USD printed a bearish daily key reversal from trendline resistance and Sugar continued its march higher. GBP/USD wave ii corrective 3 wave bounce stopped at 0.618 retracement of the wave i decline and then fell in a 3rd wavePosition: Short GBP/USD @ 1.5660 (SL @ 1.5752) GBP/USD 240m SPX has done everything right to complete a countertrend rally...

US equity markets continue higher with higher risk indices leading the way. Strong liquidity provided by the Fed today ($17.8 bln) and Thursday ($42.69 bln) is providing strong support to the equity markets. The Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX) made new highs for the year today, confirming that the recent decline was merely a correction in an ongoing bull market. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is also close to confirming new highs are on the way. Tonight's FOMC Meeting and Bernanke's press conference...

Looks like both the EUR/USD and USD/JPY are forming 4th wave symmetrical triangles here, while the GBP/USD is in the latter stages of an ending diagonal 5th wave. Looking out for a reversal in the next 24 hours for the US$ to resume its upward trend.EUR/USD - Waiting for one more marginal high above 133.91 EUR/USD 15m GBP/USD - Ideal target for this final move higher is 158.00. Selling zone for this wedge pattern is between 157.50 - 158.00 GBP/USD 60m Sugar looks to have completed 5 impulsive...

Global equity markets continued whipsawing last week with no clear direction. SPX held near term trendline and 50 day sma support but is trading "heavy". Trapped longs above 1650 seem to be capping upside market progress for now. Critical near term support remains at 1600 and if broken, expect a fast move lower to measured targets around 1520. Resistance remains around 1655/60. I have conflicting signals here. The intraday EW counts look corrective to the downside and remain impulsive to the...