The Mars Market Update — Live Research

"The impulsive nature of last week’s decline warns that red wave B is complete and a strong wave C decline is underway." Last week, equity markets broke sharply lower for what we expected to be a wave C decline into measured support. The accelerated nature of this latest waterfall decline warns of a bigger picture bear market if it continues to extend lower in 5 waves down (red count). Trump's tariff policies have triggered an unwinding of levered risk with long duration assets reversing...

Last week, equities rallied impulsively from near term support for what we expect to be wave (a) up of a counter-trend red wave B rally. While the initial rally has stalled at 200 day sma resistance, we expect an extension higher towards the 50 day sma for wave (c) of B to potentially set up the next wave lower. Near term bulls need to hold recent swing lows and break through overhead resistance for a 3 wave counter-trend rally. An impulsive 5 wave rally from these lows would warn of more...

Last week, equities extended lower to break trend support for what is likely wave A down of a big picture correction. While we do not have confirmation of a tradable low, the markets are oversold with the potential for a counter-trend wave B rally. Our big picture outlook remains unchanged as we look for a corrective decline for wave (4) down before a final wave (5) rally. Expect near term volatility while Trump's tariff wars continue and headline risks remain with the Fed on deck this week....

Last week, equities continued to stair step lower for a hard test of key trend support with no evidence yet of a bullish reversal. The unrelenting Trump Tariffs threaten to change the dynamics of this bull market and risk a bigger picture wave (4) corrective decline. Bulls need to make a stand early this week to hold this support area and reverse the recent decline to help open the door for a final 5th wave rally to marginal new ATH's. Key inflection point. The US$ finally broke lower across...

Last week, equities extended sharply lower as expected from a corrective wave (b) top but held key trend support. As highlighted in last week's update, "Risk markets remain bullish until we see new 5th wave highs in Bitcoin, the SPX and Nasdaq indices". The SPX / ES tagged long term trend support before rebounding strongly on Friday (4th wave triangle?) while the Nasdaq / NQ held equality support for a potential bull flag. Bulls need to see upside follow through this week to help confirm a...

Last week, equity markets rallied for another hard test of ATH's but were unable to break clear. The 3 wave corrective rally into ATH's and Friday's sharp reversal warns of a potential wave (b) "head-fake" top or ongoing triangle consolidation as previously warned. The structure since the December post-election ATH's counts best as a corrective decline within an ongoing bull market rally. Key trend support remains lower towards the 200 day sma. The small cap Russell 2000 continues to lag as...

Last week, equities rebounded as expected with the SPX and Nasdaq now testing ATH's in an attempted triangle breakout. Bulls need to clear ATH's and break clearly higher to help confirm a bigger picture 5th wave rally. The risk is a near term wave (b) fake-out top as part of a bigger picture corrective decline (red count). Bulls remain in control while above last week's lows as we look for a continued rally. The small cap Russell 2000 continues to lag but the near term correction is likely...

Last week, equities held equality support and rallied strongly towards trend resistance in what appears to be a triangle consolidation or bull nest. Range compression leads to range expansion as we look for a directional break in both the SPX and Nasdaq indices. The bull trend remains intact while last week's lows hold but any rally to new ATH's will likely be an ending wave as bearish momentum divergence builds. The Russell 2000 continues to hold key support at the 200 day sma but the rally...

Last week, equities gapped sharply lower before rebounding correctively for the rest of the week to fill the gap before reversing lower on Friday. Over the weekend, Trump confirmed a trade war with tariffs leading to another gap down this week. This wild ride is likely a sign of things to come with Trump causing continued market uncertainty going forward. So far, the equity market decline is only in a corrective 3 waves down of equality so far with no key support broken - the question is...