The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities rallied for a hard test of ATH's in what counts best as an extended 5th wave that broke sharply lower over the weekend. The question remains as to whether this impulsive rally was a bullish wave (i) of a larger degree 5 wave rally through new ATH's or a bearish ending wave (red case). A near term corrective decline that holds recent swing lows sets up a bullish continuation while an impulsive decline could see a sharp bear reversal. Important near term juncture for equity...

Last week, the bulls held key equality support across the board leading to an impulsive 5 wave rally into Friday's high. The corrective rally opens the door for a push to new ATH's but the bigger picture wave count is less clear. With Trump's first week in office post-inauguration, we should be prepared for increased volatility, uncertainty and risk. The risk of a bear case remains (although lower probability) given last week's rally can be counted as an ending wave (c) of a complex correction...

Last week, equities extended lower after the initial strong rally failed at trend resistance. The question is whether this decline is a complex correction within the ongoing bull market or the start of a waterfall decline? There is no evidence yet of 3rd wave impulsive price action to the downside so Bears need to see a strong break lower this week to help confirm a bigger picture change in trend. So far, the overlapping decline with lower lows and lower highs remains contained within a...

Last week, equities held near term support and failed to confirm a bigger picture tradable top. While not our base case, the potential remains for a small degree 5th wave extension to marginal new ATH's while last week's lows hold. Bears need to break these lows to help confirm a bigger picture change in trend. From a big picture perspective, equity markets appear to be wedging (overlapping) into the highs as bearish momentum divergence continues to build... note that peak RSI momentum...

Wishing you and your families a happy and prosperous new year! Thank you for your support. Last week, equities rallied strongly for a corrective 3 waves up before reversing sharply lower on Friday. The onus is on the bears to extend this decline into the new year to help confirm a bigger picture bear reversal. It is important to note that despite the bearish intraday setup, the Nasdaq has not yet broken key 50 day sma or ongoing trend support. The bond market extended its decline with no...

Jay Powell was the grinch that stole Xmas in the final FOMC press conference of the year. His hawkish pivot shocked the markets as equities reversed sharply lower as rates and the US$ rallied. The equity leaders (Nasdaq and SPX) reversed impulsively lower to potentially form a near term tradable top but bears need to see downside follow through into year end to help confirm the bearish reversal. Importantly, the Nasdaq indices held key trend support at the 50 day sma and bears must break this...

Last week, the narrowing leadership in equities continued with the Nasdaq indices pushing to new ATH's while the DJIA and Russell sold off strongly. This narrowing leadership is warning of potential trend exhaustion as we look for a Nasdaq reversal to help confirm a tradable top. The benchmark SPX continues to consolidate near ATH's in what appears to be a 5th wave extension of multiple degrees. The bond markets reversed sharply lower and while we had been looking for a corrective decline, the...

Equities extended higher last week with the Nasdaq and SPX leading the way. The DJIA and Russell continued to lag as rates declined and the US$ fell, warning of a deteriorating growth outlook. The question is whether the Nasdaq and SPX are impulsing strongly higher or forming an ending diagonal / wedge? It will be important to note whether equities can continue to extend directly higher (impulse) or overlap with a wave (iv) correction back below the proposed wave (i) highs (diagonal). The...

Last week, equities pushed to marginal new ATH's with the exception of the Nasdaq indices as the primary bull trend continues unabated. This latest rally invalidated the near term bear reversal (as warned) and opens the door to a 5th wave extension or more bullish 3rd wave rally. Either way, the bull market rally appears incomplete given these marginal new highs. The 50 day sma remains key trend support for the immediate ongoing bull market trend. The concern for the bulls is the extreme...

Last week, equities declined impulsively as expected into the 50 day sma support before rebounding sharply with the DJIA and Russell leading the charge. However, the cash SPX did not confirm the ES_F impulsive decline and the inability to break 50 day sma support warns that the bigger picture trend remains bullish. While the SPX and Nasdaq would look best with another wave lower in (c) or (iii) down, the risk is a failed bear reversal and immediate squeeze higher for a bull market...