The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equity markets exhausted to the upside as the Trump Top reversed lower. As warned in last week's update, equity markets had met initial upside targets after an impulsive 5 wave rally to new ATH's unconfirmed by the Russell 2000. This sharp reversal warns of the potential for an intermediate degree market top. Bears need to see downside follow through this week to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The question is whether the Trump Top was all of wave (3) with a major degree...

Last week, equities held near term support and rallied strongly as expected following Trump's win. Equities have now met initial upside targets for this latest rally but there is no evidence yet of a tradable top. The strength of this rally and bullish backdrop calls into question whether this was an ending 5th wave as anticipated or a much more bullish 3rd wave. The bond markets extended lower but are attempting to hammer out a temporary low for a counter-trend rally within the bigger picture...

Last week equities extended their declines as expected towards primary trend support at the 50 day sma. With the very close US election this week, we must be mindful of increased volatility and expanded ranges and focus instead on key support and resistance levels. Note that both the SPX / ES and Nasdaq / NQ continue to stall at overhead resistance. Near term bulls need to hold the 50 day sma support to maintain a bullish bias or risk a sharp break lower towards secondary support at the 200...

Last week, equities extended higher towards equality resistance as risk markets embraced the Trump trade with bullish equities, higher rates, stronger US$ and PM's. The trend is you friend as most equity indices continue to extend higher with only the Nasdaq and Semi's warning of a potential tradable top. Bond markets reversed lower late last week and are threatening a 5th wave decline and confirmation of the bigger picture bearish change in trend. The DXY stalled out at 200 day sma resistance...

Last week, the primary macro market trends remained intact with bullish extensions in equities, rates and the US$. Equities extended higher but the near term rally appears incomplete. Both the Nasdaq and SPX are approaching equality resistance with the potential for a wave 3 or C top. Note the Nasdaq is approaching major overhead resistance at ATH's. The small cap Russell 2000 reversed sharply higher from 50 day sma support and bulls have the opportunity to extend higher. The bond markets...

Last week equities declined in a corrective 3 waves in what appears to be a shallow pullback. There is no evidence of a tradable top with the potential for an immediate extension higher or a more complex correction. Importantly, the Russell 2000 / RTY declined in a corrective 3 waves of equality before rallying late last week opening the door to a more bullish small cap potential. The DXY rallied impulsively from key support as it broke up and out of our ending diagonal while Bonds broke...

Last week, equities extended marginally higher but the big picture wave count only shows 3 waves up from the August lows. While the benchmark SPX and DJIA have pushed to new ATH's, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have not. This inter-market divergence is notable. Impulsive rallies don't end in 3 waves so bulls either need to extend this rally immediately higher in 5 waves or risk a near term reversal and potential wave B top within a complex wave (4) correction. Either way, the big picture bull...

Last week, equities extended higher as expected following the Fed's 50bp cut with the SPX and DJIA impulsing to new ATH's. This latest rally is clearly impulsive but the question remains whether it is an ending wave (c) of B rally as part of a larger degree corrective wave (4) or just part of a bullish wave 3 of (5) rally. There is no evidence of a bearish reversal so bulls remain in control until proven otherwise. The 50bp rate cut provides a tailwind for risk, including equities and...

Last week, equities rallied strongly following a corrective decline as the SPX and DJIA pushed back towards new ATH's. While we had been looking for a deeper correction within the bull market trend, the strength of the rally opens the door to an immediate wave 3 rally to new ATH's (bull case). The key test will be the FOMC this week and we should be aware of the potential for a headfake wave B top - there is now a 50/50 chance of a 50bp cut. Bonds continued to press higher towards overhead...