There has been resolution across several important fronts so far this year – removing some of the uncertainties that had been plaguing markets in 2019; the US has officially ratified the USMCA, the phase one trade deal with China and Japan has been signed, the impeachment trial of the US President has been dismissed and the first part of Brexit has been completed.
Headline risk of late has been centered around the onset of the coronavirus and the possible implications for global demand (aside from the dreadful human cost). There has been little data yet to show how quarantine actions to control the virus has impacted the second largest economy – China. In some regions in China, firms have been asked to “voluntarily” return to work from 1 Mar after New Year break. Trade data for Jan due to be released last week, has been postponed until the Feb data is released. This week we will see several of the major economic releases from China which may start to show the impact within China; retail sales, industrial production, CPI, PPI, fixed asset investment and new loans (Jan).
There are several other important data highlights this week;
In the US, retail sales, CPI, industrial production for Jan and the prelim consumer sentiment for Feb will be released.
US Fed Chairman Powell will give testimony this week over two days with the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. The other Fed speech of note will be Vice Chair Quarles on Bank Supervision (Yale Law School Dean’s Lecture, New Haven, Conn).
The prelim Q4 GDP will be released for the Eurozone including Germany and the UK.
In Aus, housing finance for Dec will be released along with the NAB business conditions for Jan. There is likely to be some disruption to the economy from bushfires/natural disasters and the impact from the coronavirus.
It will be a somewhat heavier week for US Treasury settlements from the perspective of new money raised. The US Treasury will settle approx. $209bn in ST Bills this week, including a new 56-day Cash Management Bill (CMB) for $30bn, raising approx. $54.2bn in new money.
More detail, including a one-page calendar of key data releases for the week, is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
