by Kim | Oct 27, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 27 October 2025: Central bank meetings: FOMC, BoC, BoJ, and ECB, Aus Q3 CPI, US-China meeting at APEC
Recap from last week: CPI for September and Central Bank Previews
The US and global CPI reports for September provided an important update on the inflation backdrop, setting the stage for a week of key central bank meetings. We’ll review last week’s key inflation data from the US, Canada, Japan, and Europe as part of a broader preview to this week’s central bank meetings and policy decisions.
FOMC Preview
Markets are widely expecting the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) this week. The Fed is likely to maintain its risk management approach, prioritizing the rising downside risks to the labor market, despite the backdrop of elevated, but contained inflation in Sept. At the last meeting, the shift in the Fed’s assessment of rising downside risks to the labor market was the key driver of the decision to resume the rate-cutting cycle. Even without official government data, private sector reports suggest that this assessment is not likely to have changed.
The press conference and decision will be important for highlighting any change in the Fed’s framing of inflation based on the Sept CPI report and other inter-meeting reports. The current framing includes that tariff impacts are likely to be temporary, upside risks to inflation have either diminished or not increased, and inflation expectations remain well anchored. The latest Fed minutes still highlighted participant concerns on inflation, given the lack of progress towards the 2% target. The outlook and guidance are likely to continue to navigate the balance between the risk of inflation that is still above target and downside risks to the labor market. The FOMC is still expected to chart a ‘cautious’ path. The Fed decision is also likely to address changes to Quantitative Tightening (QT) as signalled by Fed Chair Powell in his speech on 14 Oct.
The US CPI report for Sept was broadly supportive of further easing, in the context that inflation remained elevated, but did not worsen, especially as a result of tariffs. Headline CPI came in lower than expected, but still increased to +3% in Sept from +2.9% in Aug. Also, core CPI did not increase as much as expected and eased back to +3% over the year in Sept. Importantly, the underlying drivers of core inflation showed that while core goods inflation remained firmer than usual (a proxy for tariff-led impacts), it remained contained within the bigger picture. Core services inflation slowed over the year to +3.5%, reflecting a resumption of the disinflationary trend in shelter inflation. The trend in the median and trimmed mean measures of underlying inflation was more favourable. Both the median and trimmed mean rates slowed over the month and year, indicating less widespread inflation pressure.
The US S&P prelim PMI for Oct was mixed. The headline output PMI suggested a strong start to Q4 with an acceleration in output growth in Oct, to “the second fastest pace this year”. However, input buying fell due to a drop in backlogs and an “unprecedented build-up of unsold stock”, potentially affecting near-term output. Export demand fell across both manufacturing and services. Employment growth lifted overall. Prices added another layer to the inflation picture: input prices continued to “increase sharply” due to tariffs and “upward wage pressures”, but the prices charged by firms increased at the slowest pace since Apr – suggesting firms are absorbing tariffs via a margin squeeze. Business confidence fell to “one of its lowest levels in three years”.
The ongoing government shutdown may add a layer of uncertainty and likely compounds the Fed’s concern over economic weakness, especially given the length of the shutdown so far and no end in sight.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Preview
The BoC is expected to cut rates at this meeting by 25bps. The data backdrop shows inflation firming again alongside continued subdued economic activity and recently rising unemployment. At the last meeting, the BoC decided to cut rates again: “With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks”. However, the CPI report for Sept showed inflation increasing across a range of measures. While the acceleration in headline CPI was partially the result of unfavourable base effects on gasoline prices, other measures of underlying inflation showed persistent and rising pressure. The BoC preferred measures of the median and trimmed mean inflation rates all increased more than expected, and reflected more widespread pressure this month.
The BoC business outlook survey for Q3 indicated that while perceived uncertainty had eased slightly, spending intentions remained subdued. Most businesses did not expect to increase current staffing levels in the near-term outlook. Soft demand and uncertainty related to trade tensions held back investment intentions. Weak demand limited firms’ ability to pass on cost increases, yet inflation is still rising. This, together with the recent softening in labour market conditions, increases the likelihood of another rate cut by the BoC at this meeting.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Preview
The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Updated forecasts may set the stage for further rate hikes. The BoJ also faces a tug-of-war between persistent inflation and emerging signs of moderating economic growth momentum. After the last meeting, Governor Ueda noted that balance: “We have to look at how much tariff policy risks materialize in the Japanese economy and prices,” and the BoJ did highlight that growth conditions were expected to moderate due to trade. Governor Ueda also noted that: “On the other hand, we have to carefully look at whether inflation, food prices move in line with our forecasts”. There were two surprising dissenters at the last meeting, preferring a rate hike.
Japanese National CPI for Sept came in as expected and accelerated over the year to +2.9% in Sept from +2.7% in Aug. Similarly, the BoJ’s preferred measure of underlying inflation excluding fresh food also increased in Sept to +2.9%. However, the trend of the monthly inflation measures has been easing over the YTD, and prices fell marginally this month across headline and core CPI. In contrast, while food price inflation eased slightly over the year to +6.7%, it remained at +0.7% over the month, led by fresh food prices. Over the year, food less fresh food inflation is running at a notable +7.6%, down slightly from +8% in Aug.
The Japanese S&P PMI prelim for Oct reflected some of the policy challenges: slowing growth momentum while input and output charges rose at “historically strong rates”. While service sector growth momentum slowed, it remained positive and helped to offset continued contraction in the manufacturing sector: “Overall output expanded at the softest rate since May, while firms recorded the first reduction in new business for 16 months.”
The appointment of new Japanese PM Takaichi adds another layer to the policy debate. She has historically tended towards ‘expansionary policies’, but her new government must now also address concerns over inflation and declining real wages for workers. The new PM will meet with US President Trump in Japan this week.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Preview
The ECB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged at its meeting this week. The ECB kept its policy settings unchanged at the last meeting, with the minutes noting that despite the new and highly uncertain trade environment, rates (policy settings) were currently “in a good place” and close to or at the end of the monetary policy cycle. The latest round of Euro area inflation for Sept showed headline inflation had increased from +2% to +2.2% in Sept, as well as core CPI up to +2.4% – all still below a year ago. Monthly inflation rates remained subdued at +0.1%.
The latest Eurozone prelim PMI for Oct showed positive signs for growth momentum going into Q4. At a composite level, output growth momentum improved, led by services, while manufacturing output growth stabilized. Underlying commentary around manufacturing in the Eurozone was mixed and tended towards a more negative outlook amid weak new orders, falling employment, and waning business confidence.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central bank meetings: FOMC, BoC, BoJ, and ECB, Aus Q3 CPI, US-China meeting at APEC
The focus this week shifts to key central bank decisions and the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi. The indication from lower-level meetings over the weekend is that there is likely to be an agreement signed by both Presidents later this week on the sidelines of the APEC Summit.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US President Trump & Chinese President Xi meet at APEC
- The indication from lower-level meetings over the weekend is that there is likely to be a framework for an agreement to be finalised by both Presidents later this week on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. While the scope of the agreement will be important, markets also seem reassured by engagement and diplomatic progress on tariffs, possibly also further reducing some of that trade uncertainty, which, for now, is seen as more significant than the final fine print of the deal.
US FOMC meeting and US data.
- Policy Decision: Markets are expecting a 25bps cut this week.
- Guidance & QT: Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will provide an update on how the Committee is balancing its dual mandate risks, especially in light of the most recent inflation data, as well as outline any changes to its near-term guidance amid the lack of official data. The decision is also likely to address halting its balance sheet run-off, and the details will be important.
- Dissent: There is likely to be at least one dissenter at this meeting.
- Data/speakers: US data will again be limited to private sector reports. Of note will be the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment survey, which includes some labor market indicators. Pending home sales for Sep will also be released. So far, Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, is scheduled to speak on 30 Oct.
- The US government shutdown continues.
BoC meeting
The BoC is widely expected to deliver a consecutive 25bps rate cut at its meeting this week, prioritizing downside economic risks over the recent uptick in core inflation measures.
BoJ meeting and data
- Policy Decision: The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Updated forecasts will be released after this meeting.
- Inflation data: The Tokyo CPI (ex-fresh food) is expected to increase to +2.6% in Oct from +2.5% in Sept.
- US President Trump will meet the new Japanese PM in Japan this week.
ECB meeting and data
- Policy Decision: The ECB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, likely maintaining its wait-and-see approach.
- Inflation data: Euro area prelim CPI for Oct is expected to show headline CPI ease to +2.1% in Oct from +2.2% in Sept. Core CPI is expected to slow back to +2.3% in Oct from +2.4% in Sept.
- Growth data: Euro area GDP for Q3 is expected to be +0.1% over the quarter, unchanged from +0.1% in Q2, but is expected to slow to +1.2% over the year.
Australia CPI for Q3
- Inflation data: After the firmer monthly inflation result for Aug, expectations for Q3 inflation have increased and are above the most recent RBA forecasts. Headline CPI is expected to increase by +1.1% over the quarter in Q3 from +0.7% in Q2. Over the year, headline inflation is expected to jump from +2.1% in Q2 to +3% in Q3. The underlying trimmed-mean inflation rate is expected to increase by +0.8% over the quarter in Q3, up from +0.6% in Q2.
- This will be an important inflation print leading up to the RBA meeting next week. Markets had previously priced in at least another rate cut in 2025 before the firmer Aug monthly inflation report. A high Q3 print could force a reassessment of the RBA’s easing path.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $834bn in ST Bills, Notes, FRNs, TIPS, and Bonds, raising approx. $109bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $32.5bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $4.3bn in Notes and Bonds will mature and be redeemed/roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Mofar2016 | Oct 27, 2025
Last week, the equity market melt up continued as the rally extended directly to new ATH's after holding key trend support at the 50 day sma. The latest rally appears to be a wave (v) of 3 extension as the primary bull trend continues. The big picture rally appears incomplete and would still look best […]
by Kim | Oct 20, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 20 October 2025: US CPI for Sep, global inflation reports for Sep (NZ, the UK, Canada, and Japan), S&P prelim PMIs for Oct
Recap from last week: Fed Easing with Caution
Amid the ongoing US government shutdown and data vacuum, focus remained on key Fed speeches in the lead-up to next week’s FOMC meeting. The message from those speeches was clear: easing with caution. The latest Beige Book provided a broad update on the US backdrop, detailing slower growth, muted labor market conditions, and persistent input price inflation. The release of the US CPI report for Sep this week will provide the Fed with an important update on inflation. Globally, the market will receive Sep inflation updates from NZ, the UK, Japan, and Canada.
Speeches by Fed Chair Powell and Fed Governor Waller last week supported another rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week. The Fed Chair noted that, despite the lack of official data, and based on the data available, the outlook for employment and inflation hasn’t changed much since the last meeting. In other words, the balance of risks still reflects the rising downside risks to the labor market. He noted, though, that economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected. The first half of Chair Powell’s speech focused on the Fed’s balance sheet. Chair Powell acknowledged that the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT)/balance sheet run-off may be approaching “in coming months”, given the level of total reserves in the system, and emerging signs that “liquidity conditions are gradually tightening”. It was a timely speech on liquidity conditions, given the recent, yet temporary pressures in short-term funding markets, and could signal an earlier end to QT.
In his speech, Governor Waller noted the backdrop of conflicting data: solid growth in activity while the labor market is softening. It’s a situation where “something’s got to give”. Until it’s clear which way the data will break (in favour of stronger growth or a weaker labor market), Governor Waller advocated for a cautious pace of cuts to avoid a policy mistake.
The Fed Beige Book for the six weeks to mid-Oct showed some easing in the pace of economic activity, continued subdued hiring, and stable employment, as prices continued to rise. While the report noted that economic activity had “changed little” from the previous report, fewer regions had reported either no change in activity or increasing activity, and more regions reported a “slight softening” in activity. Consumer spending “inched down,” manufacturing activity was “varied,” and activity in agriculture, energy, and transportation was “generally down”. The report showed differing effects among high and lower/medium income cohorts, with spending on “luxury travel and accommodation” reportedly strong, while other households “continued to seek discounts and promotions in the face of rising prices and elevated economic uncertainty”.
Employment levels were “largely stable”, while demand for labor remained muted. In some cases, hiring was replaced by “layoffs and attrition” due to weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty, and investment in AI technologies.
Prices increased further due to higher import costs (tariffs) across many districts as well as higher costs of services. Tariffs seemed to have a dual impact of a growth drag on manufacturing and of driving higher input price inflation. There were mixed reports between firms absorbing the higher tariff costs via lower margins and firms passing on the higher costs.
The Beige Book still confirms the challenging and delicate path for the Fed to navigate, the “no risk-free path”. However, the softening in growth and continued muted labor market conditions will still play into the rising downside risks, supporting an easing bias. With the inflation backdrop remaining persistent, this week’s US CPI report for Sep will offer an important view of the path of inflation.
The challenge of conflicting data was not limited to the US. The RBA Minutes showed that the Board had stayed on hold in Sep due to concerns that the decline in inflation had slowed, supported by signs of recovering private sector demand, stable unemployment, and “leading indicators (such as job advertisements and vacancies) that continued to point to healthy labour demand in the near term”.
However, last week’s Aus Sep labour market report showed a sharper increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, from 4.3% in Aug. Despite the rebound in employment growth, unemployment increased as participation also increased. This will be a concerning development for the RBA Board, and they will likely need to see whether this higher participation is absorbed/resolved next month. In the meantime, the important Q3 CPI data is due on 29 Oct, providing the RBA with a better understanding of shifts in underlying inflation. The next RBA meeting is on 3-4 Nov.
On the geopolitical front, markets continue to track the negotiations and posturing between the US and China on tariffs, leading up to the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi. The recent flare-up of tensions has been tempered with a more conciliatory tone for now.
Outlook for the week ahead: US CPI for Sep, global inflation reports for Sep (NZ, the UK, Canada, and Japan), S&P prelim PMIs for Oct
The focus this week shifts to data. Specifically, the updated inflation backdrop for Sept for the US, as well as global CPI reports. The BLS will be releasing the US CPI data at the end of the week, despite the shutdown, as it is an important input to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment for government transfer payments for 2026. The data will also be important for the FOMC meeting next week.
Also out this week will be the prelim S&P PMIs for key developed markets, offering the first view of growth and momentum leading into Q4.
Other important points for the week ahead: tensions on trade and tariff negotiations continuing to simmer between the US and China with ongoing headline risk, progress on resolving the US government shutdown, and this is the blackout period before the next FOMC meeting on the 28-29 Oct – although there are a few speeches scheduled (opening remarks).
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US inflation data – CPI for September.
The inflation data will be limited to the CPI release and is scheduled to be released at the end of the week on 24 Oct.
- Headline CPI is expected to increase by +0.4% over the month in Sep, after increasing by +0.4% in Aug. Over the year, headline CPI is expected to increase by +3.1% in Sep, up from +2.9% in Aug.
- Core CPI is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month in Sep, after increasing by +0.35% in Aug. Over the year, core CPI is expected to stay at +3.1% in Sep, versus +3.1% in Aug.
US private sector/Fed data and speeches.
- US existing home sales for Sep are expected to increase to 4.06m (annualized), up from 4.0m in Aug. Mortgage purchase applications had begun to rebound in Sep, along with falling mortgage rates.
- The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for Oct will be released. The surveys released so far for Oct show mixed results for manufacturing orders and activity, while employment remains subdued but steady, and input price increases remain relatively widespread.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment – final release for Oct. This is expected to remain around 55.
- There will be limited Fed speeches this week, given the blackout ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Global inflation reports for September.
- (Actual) NZ CPI for Q3 was expected to be +0.8%, but increased by +1% over the quarter, versus +0.5% in Q2. Over the year, headline CPI accelerated to +3% in Q3, up from +2.7% in Q2.
- Canada CPI for Sep is expected to fall over the month by -0.1% after a similar fall in Aug. Over the year, headline inflation is expected to remain little changed at around +1.9%. In Aug, CPI ex gasoline increased by +2.4% over the year. Median CPI for Sep is expected to slow slightly to +3% over the year in Sep, from +3.1% in Aug. The trimmed mean inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at +3% over the year in Sep.
- UK CPI for Sep is expected to increase across both headline and core measures. Headline CPI is expected to increase to +4% over the year in Sep from +3.8% in Aug. Core CPI is also expected to increase to +3.7% in Sep from +3.6% in Aug.
- Japanese core CPI – ex fresh food (the BoJ preferred measure) is expected to increase to +2.9% over the year in Sep, from +2.7% in Aug.
China data for Sep and Q3 growth
The full range of China’s Q3 growth and Sep activity data was released earlier in the week, and ahead of the Fourth Plenum meeting this week. Details of the meeting and review of plans and initiatives will be in focus post the meeting.
S&P Prelim PMIs Oct.
S&P Prelim PMIs for Oct will be released this week, providing an update on private sector activity at the start of Q4.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $532bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $52bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction to 20-year Bond and 5-year TIPS this week – both will settle on 31 Oct.
QT this week: Approx $10bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Mofar2016 | Oct 20, 2025
Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down within what appears to be a bullish triangle consolidation. There is no evidence of a long term tradable top as we look for the bull trend to continue higher in wave 5 of (5) once this wave 4 correction is complete. Crypto markets led by Bitcoin continued […]
by Kim | Oct 13, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 13 October 2025: US-China trade posturing, US government shutdown continues, Fed speeches: Fed Chair Powell, Fed Beige Book
Recap from last week: Balancing the Fed Policy Mandate
With the ongoing US government shutdown creating a data vacuum, our focus shifted to central bank communications this week. An overarching theme across these communications was the challenge of balancing policy mandates amid conflicting views on data and elevated risk. The Fed minutes revealed the FOMC undertaking a balancing act with its 25bps cut as rising downside risks to employment shifted the Fed’s balance of risks. The minutes and speeches this week reinforced the complex, two-sided risk environment, as well as a lack of consensus on the progress of inflation and on the cause of the current labor market weakening. This balancing theme was reflected elsewhere; the ECB minutes suggested rates were in a “good place” for balancing current risks, while the RBNZ opted for an aggressive 50bp cut to pre-emptively mitigate downside risk from cautious spending. However, the fragile tariff truce between the US and China, while they negotiate around lowering the US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, was upended on Friday, shifting risk sentiment.
The FOMC minutes reflected broad, if not unanimous, agreement to cut the FFR at the last meeting in response to the ‘shift in the balance of risks’. One committee member dissented in favour of a larger cut. Overall, the minutes suggest that the Committee was taking a risk management approach to mitigate the rising downside risks to employment and to avoid a rise in unemployment, before those risks become a reality.
“Most” participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting because they judged that downside risks to employment had increased over the intermeeting period and that upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased. Source: FOMC Minutes 16-17 Sep 2025
Beyond the immediate decision, the minutes reflect the Fed navigating a more complex, two-sided risk to its dual mandate. Committee members held differing views across both sides of the dual mandate: on the progress of inflation and on the reason for labor market weakness. This division was evident in the nuanced language used throughout the minutes. Even the unanimous decision to cut rates was caveated: “a few participants” saw “merit” in keeping the rate unchanged, and could have supported such a decision. On inflation, some members felt that inflation, excluding tariffs, was close to target. Others emphasized that progress on inflation had stalled, even excluding those tariffs. Finally, there was a range of views on the current drivers of the weakening labor market conditions – whether the weakness in payroll growth was driven by a mix of faltering labor demand and/or emerging structural supply factors.
The minutes surrounding forward guidance were also nuanced. The tension remained between being “data dependent” and “not on a preset path,” while acknowledging that “more easing is likely to be appropriate.” While most judged that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year, Participants stressed the importance of a “balanced approach” given the two-sided risks: easing too much risked unanchored inflation expectations, while keeping rates too high risked unnecessary increases in unemployment. Despite the absence of official government data due to the shutdown, markets are still pricing in two further 25bps cuts this year.
A range of views was also borne out across Fed speeches last week. Of note was Governor Barr’s speech, where he focused on the complexity of balancing the dual mandate, saying that “the most difficult circumstances for making monetary policy decisions are when both mandate variables are at risk”. He acknowledged the rising risk to jobs at the last meeting. However, this speech emphasised inflation risks – noting that the Fed’s price stability goal “faces significant risks”. The speech by New York Fed President Williams, on the other hand, erred more on the side of a weakening labor market in supporting further cuts this year. In an interview later in the week, Fed Governor Waller advocated for a more cautious approach, highlighting the disconnect between slowing payrolls and recent strengthening in growth, noting that “something’s got to give”. But he also said that “the labor market is weak – and that’s the punchline for policy”. He emphasized that while he favoured cutting rates, “you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go”. He sees the pace of quarter-point cuts at the next few meetings as sufficient.
Other global central banks also emphasised this balancing approach. The ECB minutes for the latest meeting (hold) showed a consensus that rates were currently in a “good place”, and “close to or at the end of the monetary policy cycle”. Minutes showed the inflation outlook as stable, but vulnerable, and domestic growth resilient but also vulnerable in the near-term. While a further rate cut “would better protect the inflation target… under a range of adverse scenarios” (downside growth risk), the materialization of upside inflation risks “would instead warrant maintaining the current level.”
However, the RBNZ cut rates by more than expected by 50bps, and guidance indicated that the Committee was “open to further reductions”. The decision for a 50bp cut was seen as mitigating the risks of persistent, overly cautious household and business spending, while there is still spare capacity in the economy, and despite inflation remaining at the upper end of the 1-3% target band.
Outlook for the week ahead: US-China trade posturing, US government shutdown continues, Fed speeches: Fed Chair Powell, Fed Beige Book
The trade negotiations between the US and China were again a source of headline risk late last week. At the time of writing, there has been some effort to de-escalate; however, there is disagreement on the terms of the tariff truce while negotiations are ongoing. Both US President Trump and President Xi plan to meet in a few weeks at the APEC summit in South Korea. Importantly, the immediate market reaction on Friday serves as a sharp reminder: a swift de-escalation of the renewed trade tensions is important to prevent this spike in risk from hardening back into more sustained and elevated uncertainty around tariffs for business and households.
The coming week has many angles. Headline risk around US-China trade posturing ahead of planned talks, progress on the US government shutdown, Fed speeches prior to the blackout period before the next FOMC meeting on the 28-29 Oct, and limited data. The BLS also announced that the CPI report for Sep will be released next week on 24 Oct.
Key factors & events to watch this week
US Fed speeches & the Beige Book
This is the final week of speeches ahead of the blackout period next week, before the FOMC meeting on 28-29 Oct. The Fed Beige Book will be released this week ahead of the FOMC meeting – and is likely to gain more scrutiny amid the data vacuum.
- There will be several key Fed speeches this week. Fed Chair Powell will speak on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the NABE conference (14 Oct). This will be a key speech ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- Fed Governor Waller will speak on the Economic Outlook (16 Oct) – also a key speech ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- There will be a range of other speeches through the week – see the official Fed calendar.
- The Fed Beige Book, covering anecdotes from regional Fed business contacts for the last six weeks. This will be an important input into the next Fed meeting (as usual).
US Fed surveys and private sector data
Given the ongoing US government shutdown, US data will be limited to US regional Fed manufacturing surveys and private sector reports.
- The NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing surveys for Oct will be released – our first data point for Q4.
- The NAHB Housing Market (home builder sentiment) index for Oct.
- The NFIB business optimism index (Sep)
Global data reports
- UK labor market for the 3 months to Sep. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.7%.
- The Australian labour market report for Sep. Employment growth is expected to rebound to +20k from -5k in Aug; however, the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.3% from 4.2% in Aug.
- The RBA minutes will be released this week.
- Euro area CPI – final for Sep is expected to confirm headline inflation of +2.2% and core inflation of +2.3%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $651bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $91bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $11.3bn in ST Bills and TIPS will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $0.7bn in TIPS will mature and roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
