by Kim | Nov 24, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 24 November 2025: US retail sales and PPI catch-up data for Sept, US Thanksgiving Holiday, Aus CPI, and RBNZ meeting
The Recap from Last Week: FOMC Minutes and the Catch-Up US Employment Data for Sept
FOMC Minutes – Risk Framing
The FOMC minutes confirmed the risk management nature of the October rate cut – based on the judgment of rising downside risks to employment, leaving “the labor market more susceptible to any negative shock”. This appeared to be a broadly supported decision (minus two dissents) as ‘most’ participants suggested the cut would help “to forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions”. However, there were still ‘some’ participants who noted that they could have supported a decision to stay on hold at this meeting also.
A key development was the divided outlook on the Dec meeting and the risks around a third consecutive rate cut. The minutes revealed the nature of that division along several lines, including the degree of policy restriction and risks around inflation. It’s worth noting that ‘most’ participants were pro-rate cuts “over time”, but it was a question of the cadence of those cuts, with ‘several’ of those participants noting a further cut as “not likely” appropriate in Dec.
The pro-hold camp noted concerns that inflation progress had stalled above the 2% target, while the policy stance was “not clearly restrictive”. They were concerned that a further reduction could add to the risk that still above-target inflation could “become entrenched” or the risk that another follow-up cut could signal a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2% target.
The pro-cut camp believes that the policy stance is still restrictive, even after the cut in Oct, and that further easing is needed to move towards a more ‘neutral’ policy stance to ensure against further downside risks to employment and aligning with the risk management or insurance cut rationale. This group believes that underlying inflation, removing tariff effects, is close to the 2% target, giving the Fed room to ease.
The immediate challenge for the Fed’s Dec meeting will still be a lack of US federal government data to help inform the assessment of the balance of risks.
The Missing US Data Hurdle & Policy Rhetoric
It was announced last week that the Oct jobs report would not be released and that data would be rolled into the Nov report, to be released on 16 December – six days after the Dec FOMC meeting. Market expectations for a cut in Dec fell notably after that announcement (assuming the Fed would take a cautious approach and stay on hold). More timely inflation data will also be delayed.
However, speeches last week emphasised that, despite the lack of government data, the Fed is not flying blind. This point was made in several speeches last week, including by Governor Waller early last week. Gov. Waller’s speech was made before the catch-up release of the US Employment data for Sept. He clearly supports another cut in Dec, “as a matter of risk management,” given that the labor market remains at stall speed. He believes policy is restrictive and is weighing on the economy, and a further cut in Dec will ensure against an acceleration in the weakening labor market. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson was a little more non-committal in his outlook. He also spoke about other useful data sources for the Fed and specifically mentioned the Fed Beige Book due out this week. He believed the policy stance is “somewhat restrictive”, but has moved closer to its neutral level. He emphasized the need to “proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate”. Later in the week, the speech by NY Fed President Williams was credited as the reason for a subsequent increase in rate-cut odds at the Dec meeting. He views monetary policy as still “modestly restrictive”, although somewhat less so after recent cuts, but still sees room for further adjustment “in the near term” to move the policy stance closer to the neutral range.
By the end of the week, rate cut odds had moved up from a 50-50 chance at the start of the week to approx. 70-30 in favour of a cut at Dec (Source: CME FedWatch Tool). This will continue to be a fluid situation.
Data to Assess the Balance of Risks
The catch-up US Employment Situation report for Sept delivered mixed messages, but its overall composition likely fails to negate the rising downside risks noted at the Fed’s Oct meeting. The unemployment rate increased notably to 4.4% (+0.12%pts in the month), yet this rise was not due to falling employment. Employment growth was positive, albeit modest, over Aug and Sept. The employment to population ratio for both 16yrs+ and the core working age group remained steady and elevated, also confirming a still low firing environment. The rise in unemployment over Aug and Sept was due to labor supply, including an increase in participation, growing at a faster pace than employment growth. Notwithstanding the stronger NFP print in Sept of +119k, this supply/demand imbalance, resulting in higher unemployment, is where the labor market risks remain.
More recent labor market signals also suggest that underlying risks remain. Up-to-date continuing claims data has moved back up to cycle highs, but is not providing a clear signal as it includes an elevated number of federal workers on furlough. While this rise may not signal a cyclical downturn, we still end up in the same place: labor market conditions that remain susceptible to a downturn. When layering on the rising Challenger job cuts announced in Oct, the overall picture suggests US labor market conditions may not have materially improved since Sept, but rather steadied at an elevated risk level.
On the activity front, the more recent news was still one of resilience. The most recent US prelim PMI for Nov shows some modest to moderate growth momentum. However, risks remain in the manufacturing sector, while services momentum remains moderate. US existing home sales remained steady at around 4.1m in Oct, while home builder sentiment remained little changed at subdued levels. Headline consumer sentiment in the Michigan survey fell within the margin of error, but sentiment around current conditions fell more notably amid “persistent high prices and weakening incomes” (source: Michigan Survey).
Global Signals on Inflation
The picture from global CPI reports was also mixed, with better news on inflation for both Canada and the UK. Canada’s lower-than-expected headline and underlying CPI for Oct confirmed the latest BoC comments on inflation that “upward momentum has dissipated.” The UK CPI was also lower than expected across headline, core, and services measures – also supporting the BoE assertion that inflation was deemed to have peaked. Inflation in Japan, however, is proving to be more persistent with headline and core measures moving back up to +3% in Oct.
Outlook for the week ahead: US retail sales & PPI catch-up data for Sept, US Thanksgiving Holiday, Aus CPI, and RBNZ meeting
The week ahead continues to focus on the catch-up of delayed US government data, specifically Sept retail sales and PPI, ahead of the Fed meeting on 10 Dec. A crucial hurdle for the Dec meeting will be the lack of up-to-date government inflation figures. Consequently, the Fed will rely heavily on anecdotal indicators like the Fed Beige Book, private sector reports, as well as some limited government data such as weekly Initial/Continuing Claims to frame its assessment of the balance of risks. This is the last week for Fed officials to offer policy guidance before the pre-meeting blackout period begins next week. Globally, watch for the Aus monthly CPI and the RBNZ policy decision.
It’s also a short week in the US with the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Federal Reserve speeches & data
- There are no official Fed speeches scheduled for this shortened week – see the official Fed calendar. Next week will be the blackout week for speeches ahead of the 10 Dec meeting.
- There will be one key Fed release this week – the Beige Book of anecdotes from regional contacts for the last six weeks. This will cover activity, prices, and labor market conditions. Last week, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson specifically noted this as a key release to watch in the absence of US government data.
US Data
- Data catch-up: US retail sales for Sept are expected to increase by +0.4% over the month versus +0.6% in Aug. The control group retail sales (what feeds into GDP expenditure) is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month from +0.7% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: US headline PPI for Sep is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month, up from -0.1% in Aug. Over the year, headline PPI is expected to increase to +2.7%, up from +2.6% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: Durable Goods orders Sept are expected to increase by +0.2% over the month, from +2.9% in Aug
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov is expected to edge lower to 93.4 from 94.6.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 22 Nov are expected to remain around the 220k level.
Updated US data release schedules
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) schedule page can be found here. The US Q3 GDP report, which was originally slated for release this week, will be rescheduled. There is also no date yet on the PCE inflation report for Sept, though the catch-up PPI for Sept is only being released this week.
- The US Census Bureau has yet to update its schedule, but the page can be found here.
Aus monthly CPI for Oct – this will be the first release of the full monthly inflation report. For now, though, the RBA will continue to focus on the quarterly data. The headline CPI is expected to increase by +3.5% over the year in Oct, unchanged from +3.5% in Sept. The monthly trimmed mean inflation is expected to increase to +3% in Oct, up from +2.8% in Sept.
The RBNZ will meet this week and is expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut.
The UK government budget is scheduled for release this week on 26 Nov. The budget is expected to contain measures that could impact the BoE’s decision-making, which was anticipated at its last meeting. That recent BoE decision was extremely divided, resulting in a 5-4 vote in favor of a pause while the committee awaited more economic evidence and the details of the budget measures.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $619bn in ST Bills, TIPS, and FRNs, raising approx. $66bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes early this week – and all will settle on 1 Dec, next week.
QT this week: Approx $14.5bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Mofar2016 | Nov 24, 2025
Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down for a hard test of key support for this complex wave 4 corrective retracement. Welcome to Thanksgiving Jeopardy - while the market has held key support, the structure of the decline is no longer "clearly" corrective and is warning of more bearish potential. The big […]
by Kim | Nov 17, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 17 November 2025: FOMC Minutes & Speeches, US Employment Situation for Sept, Prelim PMIs Nov, global CPI reports
Recap from last week: Data Catch-Up Begins
The US government shutdown has officially ended, shifting the focus from political gridlock to the messy process of data catch-up. The first major release confirmed by the BLS is the Sept Employment Situation Report, due late this week, which is important, but now a significantly lagging report.
This will also put the spotlight squarely back on the incoming economic releases, potentially enabling the Fed to address its internal division on the policy outlook. This week, timely, yet soft, data points may contrast with the “stale” US catch-up data, but could start to provide some direction for the Fed ahead of Dec.
US Activity and the Data Vacuum
Last week was a particularly quiet week for any US economic data. The NFIB small business optimism index for Oct was consistent with several other business surveys showing some weakening in optimism in the outlook. Small business optimism fell slightly in Oct – reflecting reports of “lower sales and reduced profits”. However, the uncertainty index fell notably, to its lowest level of the year.
Preliminary private sector labor data suggested a weakening in job growth through the latter part of Oct. The new weekly ADP payrolls series (The NER Pulse) shows the preliminary estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. This week’s data reflects the week ending 25 Oct and shows the change in the 4-weekly average at -11k for private job creation. This preliminary data is two weeks advanced from the prior monthly ADP report (+42k) and suggests job creation may have slowed.
In a separate policy development, the ongoing impact of inflation on households and consumer sentiment appears to have registered with the US government. Late last week, an announcement was made to reduce tariffs on key imported food items and implement other measures aimed at addressing consumer inflation (source: Bloomberg).
Policy Implications: The Divided FOMC
Fed speeches from some of the more hawkish members underscored the division within the FOMC ahead of their next meeting, reinforcing the importance of the incoming data catch-up. Boston Fed President Collins, though supporting the Oct cut as “prudent,” is comfortable being on hold in Dec, citing the risk that “providing further monetary support risks slowing or stalling the return of inflation to target” (source: Bloomberg). Conversely, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (an Oct dissenter) argued that further cuts are unlikely to fix structural labor market issues but could jeopardize the 2% inflation objective.
At this point, rate cut probabilities reflect the divided Fed, with now only approximately a 50% probability of a cut priced in for Dec (source: CME FedWatch). This is a highly fluid situation, and forthcoming data and Fed speeches from some of the doves this week could easily shift these probabilities again.
Global Central Banks and Data Implications
Outside of the US, key data releases in Aus and the UK offered fresh insights following their recent respective central bank meetings.
In Aus, the Oct labour market report was solid, reversing some of the recent increase in the unemployment rate. Employment growth increased, while participation stayed unchanged (after notably rising last month), causing the unemployment rate to fall back to 4.3%. For the RBA, this strong report, coupled with easing financial conditions and a lift in mortgage commitments, and the recent return of underlying inflation to above the target band, casts further doubt over whether policy is still “a little restrictive.” Market pricing currently reflects the likelihood of an extended pause.
Meanwhile, the UK labor market continued to show signs of slowing, with both the employment rate falling and the unemployment rate rising to 5.0%, alongside slower wage growth. GDP growth also decelerated more than expected, slowing to +0.1% in Q3 (from +0.3% in Q2). These slowing growth and labor market metrics play directly into concerns over slack building in the UK economy, supporting the dovish case for a rate cut at the last BoE meeting. However, the immediate focus remains on next week’s (26 Nov) UK budget measures.
Outlook for the week ahead: FOMC Minutes & Speeches, US Employment Situation for Sept, Prelim PMIs Nov, global CPI data
The focus this week is on a mix of data catch-up and a busy week of current data releases and US Fed speeches. US statistical agencies will provide broader guidance on when and how the official US government data flow will normalize. Crucially, the recommencement of US data releases begins this week with the important, albeit lagging, Sept Employment Situation Report (expected Thursday). This will contrast with a busy calendar of timelier (albeit softer) US data releases, as well as the FOMC minutes, a notable number of Fed speeches, the S&P preliminary PMIs for Nov, and global CPI reports.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Updated US data release schedules.
- So far, we have confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of two reports this week: The Employment Situation for Sept – this will be released on Thursday, 20 Nov. The second is Real Earnings for Sept – to be released on Friday, 21 Nov.
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Aug International Trade in Goods & Services this week. The schedule will continue to be updated, and its page can be found here. So far, there is no update on a PCE inflation data due date.
- The US Census Bureau has yet to update its schedule, but the page can be found here.
US Federal Reserve: Minutes & Speeches.
The focus of speeches remains on the division among FOMC members about the policy outlook for Dec.
- The FOMC minutes of the Oct meeting will be released this week. While the Oct decision to cut was broadly consensus (two dissents), the outlook for Dec reflected ”strongly differing views”. The minutes should provide some insight into the discussion for the short-term policy outlook, as well as the decision to end QT.
- There will be numerous Fed speeches through the week – see the official Fed calendar. There are two key speeches this week that will focus on ‘the economic outlook’ – with at least one of those speeches likely to support a more dovish outlook for Dec. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Fed Governor Waller will both give speeches on the ‘economic outlook’ this week – though these two speeches are not likely to incorporate any updated data.
US Data
Private sector reports for housing, Fed manufacturing surveys for Nov, and the US employment situation for Sept.
- The Employment Situation for Sept – this will be released on Thursday, 20 Nov. There are no estimates for the release. For comparison: the last payroll change for Aug was +22k, while the unemployment rate had edged up to 4.32% from 4.25%. The market will be parsing this report not just for the Sept context, but for any directional clues it might offer for the outlook.
- Also part of the data catch-up will be: Real Earnings for Sept and International Trade for Aug.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 15 Nov are a TBC from the Dept of Labor.
- Housing data will be a combination of existing home sales (expecting 4.06m annualized in Oct) and home builder sentiment (NAHB Housing Market Index).
- There will be a range of US Fed Manufacturing Surveys for Nov – providing the first view of manufacturing activity mid-way through Q4.
- This will be supplemented by the release this week of the S&P prelim PMIs for Nov. One of the key points from the PMIs last month was the notable downshift in optimism in the outlook for Oct – so it will be important to see if this resolved.
- The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Nov will also be important to see whether sentiment rebounded; however, it’s likely to be too early to see a broad impact from the resolution of the shutdown.
Global CPI Reports – Oct
- UK CPI for Oct is expected to be 0% over the month, after 0% in Sep. The annual rate is expected to ease slightly from last month’s +3.8% rate. Core inflation is expected to ease to +3.4% in Oct from +3.5% in Sept. The services inflation rate will also be in focus – and is expected to be little changed again at +4.7%.
- Canada CPI for Oct is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month, up from +0.1% in Sept. The annual rate is expected to be little changed at +2.4%. Measures of core inflation are expected to ease. Trimmed mean inflation is expected to increase by +3% over the year in Oct, down from +3.1% in Sept, while the median CPI is expected to increase by +3.1% in Oct, down from +3.2% in Sept.
- The focus of Japan’s National CPI for Oct will be the key BoJ core CPI measure ex fresh food, which is expected to accelerate slightly to +3% in Oct from +2.9% in Sept. The earlier Tokyo CPI inflation for Oct had been a little hotter over the month across all headline measures.
- Euro area – final for Oct is expected to confirm headline inflation at +2.1% and core inflation at +2.4% over the year.
Aus – Wages and RBA Minutes
- The latest RBA Minutes will be released this week. While the decision to stay on hold was unanimous, the minutes may provide insight into the discussion around how restrictive policy settings are, as well as the rationale for the change in guidance to include “in both directions”.
- The Wage Price Index for Q3 is expected to increase by +0.8% over the quarter and remain unchanged at +3.4% over the year.
S&P Prelim PMIs for Nov.
S&P Prelim PMIs for Nov will be released for key developed markets. There were several themes and similarities in the reports in Oct – weakening global demand, especially across manufacturing sectors, and weaker sentiment in the outlook.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $657bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $59bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 10-year TIPS and 20-year Bond – both will settle at the end of the month.
QT this week: Approx $33bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $2.3bn in Notes & Bonds will mature and be redeemed and roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Mofar2016 | Nov 17, 2025
Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down as the distribution and corrective consolidation continutes. The primary trend remains bullish within a wave 4 corrective consolidation before a final wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. Inter-market divergences continued as the DJIA made new ATH's while the Nasdaq and Russell extended lower […]
by Kim | Nov 10, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 10 November 2025: Veterans Day, resolution on the US government shutdown, UK & Aus labour market reports, Euro area & UK GDP Q3
Recap from last week: Resilience Undermined by Policy Uncertainty in Oct
Momentum in the US economy remains difficult to assess, as we continue to rely almost exclusively on private sector surveys and data due to the government shutdown. Though at the time of writing, there are reports of a potential stopgap funding agreement that could see the longest US government shutdown end this week (source: Bloomberg).
The data we received last week reflected activity that remained surprisingly resilient, while sentiment became more pessimistic due to policy uncertainty. The US PMI survey data for Oct reflected still solid activity, but the outlook was undermined by elevated caution. Similarly, US consumer sentiment fell sharply again at the start of Nov amid shutdown concerns. The limited and mixed US data will likely remain a challenge for the FOMC as it grapples with the risks to its dual mandate. Last week, private sector data suggested little aggregate change in labor market conditions in Oct but highlighted pockets of weakness. Globally, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept policy unchanged, with both central banks signalling heightened uncertainty – but for structurally different reasons.
US Activity Tempered by Caution
The US headline PMIs mostly indicated a solid start to activity in Q4. The S&P PMIs showed moderate expansion in manufacturing and services, led by output and demand. Domestic activity led the way, while export demand remained in contraction. Finance and tech sectors were key drivers of the expansion, but reports noted signs of improving consumer demand. A question remains over the durability of manufacturing output growth, though, given the large increase in finished goods inventories. The price indexes still showed persistent inflation pressures, but provided little guidance on the magnitude of the pressures.
The stronger, unifying theme of the PMI surveys was the weaker/falling sentiment, citing trade policy (tariffs), political uncertainty (federal shutdown), and generally “mixed signals” from the economy. Reports suggested that weakening sentiment due to policy and political uncertainty during Oct (namely, the US-China trade flare-up and US government shutdown) may have held back activity and muddied the outlook for firms.
Consumer Sentiment: A Reaction to Policy
This pervasive uncertainty was clearly reflected in the prelim Michigan consumer sentiment survey for Nov. All three headline measures fell notably at the start of Nov, building on weaker readings from the two prior months. Declines in both the outlook and current conditions were widespread among consumers, citing “worries about the potential negative consequences of the ongoing federal government shutdown”. Importantly, since these primary sources of increased uncertainty are unlikely to be enduring, sentiment could rebound once the shutdown is resolved.
Labor Market Data Gap Challenges the FOMC
Ordinarily, this would have been the week for the Oct payrolls report. The absence of the US government data is particularly crucial now, as the FOMC continues to grapple with opposing risks to its dual mandate and internal division on the near-term policy path. Last week’s private sector data reflected some mixed signals on the US labor market, but little to suggest a material change from the cooling conditions. The PMI surveys showed little change in employment momentum across manufacturing and services, with some reports noting that the heightened uncertainty held back decisions on hiring in Oct. Conversely, the ADP payroll report recorded a stronger-than-expected increase in Oct at +42k (expecting +25k) – breaking a series of weaker payroll reports. Layoffs were mixed: the Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey recorded a notable increase in layoff announcements to 153k in Oct from 54k in Sept. The increase in layoffs in Oct was led mostly by ‘warehousing’ (UPS announcements), and technology. However, the technology job cuts (+33k) were offset by a notable increase in technology hiring announcements (+250k). Over the YTD, DOGE is still the largest contributor to job cut announcements. While the “DOGE” cuts are not a cyclical indicator, more cyclically related “cost-cutting” was cited as the top reason for layoff announcements this month.
US Fed speeches last week acknowledged the challenge of navigating the current environment with limited data. Fed Governor Cook supported the decision to cut at the last meeting, noting that she believed downside risks to the labor market were greater than the upside risks to inflation, and assessed policy as still ‘modestly’ restrictive. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson indicated that the recent lack of progress on inflation might be due to “tariff effects,” and suggested underlying inflation may still be making progress toward 2%. He assessed policy as only ‘somewhat’ restrictive and agreed that it makes sense to ‘proceed carefully’ now as the Committee approaches the neutral rate.
Global Central Banks: Pause Amid Uncertainty
Caution and uncertainty were also themes reflected in the two key central bank decisions last week – but for different, structural reasons.
The RBA kept policy settings unchanged as expected, and the decision was unanimous. The recent higher-than-expected inflation, recovery in demand, still tight labour market conditions, and easing in financial conditions have now increased the uncertainty over the assessment that monetary policy remains a “little restrictive”. Guidance was further adjusted to now reflect a ”heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook in both directions”. The Governor suggested that the RBA “may cut rates, or we may not”. New forecasts for underlying inflation show the trimmed mean remaining above the target band through to H2 2026 – suggesting an extended pause is possible if data evolve as per the forecasts.
The BoE also kept policy unchanged, but it was an extremely divided 5-4 decision, with four members voting for a 25bps cut. Risks of greater inflation persistence have become less pronounced recently, while the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand has become more apparent (concerns over slack building in the economy) – such that these risks are now more balanced. Amid the voter split, the Committee agreed on “waiting for additional evidence before reducing Bank Rate further”. While settings were deemed as ‘restrictive’, the internal division highlighted different views on the degree of restrictiveness. The decision noted that inflation was deemed to have peaked – an important signal for the outlook on rates. The extent of further cuts will depend on the inflation outlook – as disinflation continues, restrictiveness will be removed.
Outlook for the week ahead: Awaiting Shutdown Resolution
The expected resolution of the US government shutdown this week will see a shift from political gridlock. While the immediate policy risk of the shutdown may be receding, market participants must now brace for the uncertainty of when and how the official data flow will normalize – and importantly, what the data will say.
Assuming the shutdown ends this week, we’ll await guidance from statistical agencies over the timeline for scheduled releases.
For the immediate week, the US economic calendar remains minimal, keeping private sector surveys in focus. Outside of the US, key data releases in the UK and Aus will serve as essential validation (or challenge) to the recent policy decisions by the BoE and the RBA.
Tuesday, 11 Nov is Veterans Day.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Government Shutdown
Resolution of the US government shutdown and the resulting schedule of data releases.
US Data
Private sector reports are still in focus for this week, but will offer little further insight into the near-term outlook.
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will gauge sentiment in the small business sector, which, as highlighted in Part 1, may have been dampened by policy uncertainty in Oct and early Nov.
- The ADP preliminary 4-weekly payroll change will be updated now each week on a Tuesday. The prior 4-weekly change at the week ending 11 Oct was +14k. The note from ADP on the new release is here.
- If the shutdown ends early in the week, the initial jobless claims series could be released this week.
- There will be numerous Fed speeches through the week – see the official Fed calendar. Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak this week on “Payments” at a Fintech conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed.
UK data
- UK labour market data for the 3-months ending Sept is expected to see the unemployment rate edge higher to 4.9% – this may not allay concerns over slack building in the economy.
- GDP for Q3 is expected to edge down to +0.2% QoQ, from a modest +0.3% in Q2.
Australian Labour Market for Oct
- Employment growth is expected to edge higher to +20k from +15k in Sept. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.4% from 4.5% in Sept. This may also support the assertion that some tightness remains in the labor market.
Euro Area Data
Euro area GDP growth for Q3 is expected to be confirmed at +0.2%.
China Activity Data
The remaining activity data from China will be released this week. This comes on the heels of the step down in Chinese export and import growth in Oct. The activity data is expected to moderate slightly, with retail sales slowing to +2.8% in Oct from +3% in Sept and industrial production slowing to +5.5% from +6.5% in Sept.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $532bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $37bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 3-year and 10-year Notes, and the 30-year Bond this week – they will settle early next week.
QT this week: Approx $17.2bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
