by Kim | Dec 22, 2025
The key events for the w/c 22 December 2025: Christmas Holiday week, US Q3 GDP, RBA Minutes
The Recap from Last Week: ECB, BoE, and BoJ Decisions
The final three major central bank decisions of the year reinforced the theme of policy divergence as policymakers navigate specific domestic pressures. The ECB maintained a “watchful neutral” stance, while the BoE delivered a fragile cut – a move that underscores a shift to more gradual easing, with future decisions likely to remain a “closer call”. Meanwwhile, the outlier Bank of Japan hiked rates to a 30-year high as it continued to normalise policy after decades of excess accommodation.
As we look to 2026, the path of Fed rate policy – the key global anchor – will remain important for markets. The question of ‘more or fewer cuts’ in 2026 is contingent on a labor market already testing the Fed’s ‘line in the sand’, inflationary crosscurrents from a new trade regime, fiscal stimulus, and a change in Fed leadership.
The final three decisions: ECB, BoE, and BoJ
- ECB: A Watchful Neutral – The Governing Council delivered a unanimous hold, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. While growth forecasts were revised slightly higher, services inflation is likely to remain sticky. With settings at a roughly neutral level, the ECB remains cautious, citing an uncertain international environment. Forward guidance remained suspended as ECB President Lagarde noted that it was also a “unanimous decision to keep all optionalities on the table and stick to a meeting-by-meeting approach” due to the high degree of global uncertainty.
- BoE: A Fragile Cut – In another razor-thin 5-4 decision, the BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25bps to 3.75%, with Governor Bailey acting as the swing voter. While upside risks to persistent inflation have eased, the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand has remained. Recent inflation reports have come in lower, while demand remains subdued and slack is building in the labor market. Inflation is expected to fall back target more quickly in the near-term. Guidance shifted – while the bias to cutting remained, further easing is likely to progress on a gradual path, with decisions becoming a “closer call”, and conditional on the inflation outlook.
- BoJ: Removing Excess Accommodation – The BoJ hiked by 25bps to 0.75%, a 30-year high. This unanimous decision reflects rising confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. Importantly, the bridge between inflation and growth – the wages outlook – is expected to be maintained. However, the Spring wage negotiations remain the key risk to the outlook. Policy settings are seen as remaining accommodative – with the BoJ noting that the “significantly negative” real interest rate level is still supporting the economy. Guidance set up a clear bias toward further hikes, conditional on achieving inflation and growth outcomes, while “the chances of that happening are increasing”. While this was a more hawkish decision and tone, the immediate market reaction was a selloff in long JGB’s (the 10-year breaching 2%) and the further weakening of the Yen, which suggested markets may have expected more.
US Data – Setting the Tone for 2026
While these central bank decisions illustrate a global landscape of policy divergence, the FOMC remains the key anchor for markets in the year ahead. This week, markets were focused on the catch-up of key US labor market and inflation data – and importantly, what it could mean for the Fed’s rate path. Despite the weaker labor market data and softening CPI, market pricing for the FFR remained little changed over the week. This suggests that markets were looking past some of the distortions and waiting on the Dec data to help decipher temporary shutdown-related noise from a more fundamental cyclical shift.
1. The Labor Market: Mixed Signals and Shutdown Echoes
In our assessment of the Dec FOMC decision, Fed Chair Powell seemed to indicate that an uptick of more than two tenths in the unemployment rate (to 4.7%) could be a line in the sand for the Fed leading up to the Jan meeting. In the Nov labor market report, the unemployment rate started to approach that threshold, ticking up to 4.6% – higher than expected. Some of the uptick in unemployment appeared to be due to “temporary” layoffs, suggesting that this higher unemployment rate may not be enduring. While the increase in the unemployment rate was partly the result of higher participation, slower employment growth also contributed. The employment to population ratio for the 16yrs+ group fell to a post-pandemic low of 59.6%, while conditions in the core working-age group also seemed to soften.
Payroll growth rebounded in Nov to +64k after the notable fall of -157k in Oct, distorted by the shutdown and the deferred falls in government payrolls. Private payroll growth has remained positive over the last three months, and increased to +69k in Nov (with the 3-month avg now up to +75k). The private payroll diffusion index improved to >50 (reaching 55.2), suggesting some positive broadening in payroll growth across industries.
Another bright spot was the continued solid growth in aggregate hours worked. Hours worked increased by +0.3% over the month, and remained fairly steady over the year at +0.8% growth. This pace of aggregate hours suggests some stability in activity underlying the labor market noise.
2. US CPI Catch-Up
The inflation data, while lacking a month-on-month trend due to the Oct gap, showed a notable deceleration. Headline CPI slowed to +2.7% (down from 3% in Sept), and Core CPI dropped to +2.6%. While the Fed will likely remain sceptical of this data until the gaps are cleared, the downward trajectory was notable.
Further delays in inflation data could mean that the Fed may not have a clearer inflation picture until the Mar meeting. The PPI for Nov is postponed until 14 Jan, which means the Fed-preferred PCE inflation report for Nov will also be delayed – awaiting an updated release date. At this stage, the next complete PCE inflation report for Dec is not scheduled until 31 Jan, after the next Fed meeting on 27-28 Jan 2026.
3. The US prelim S&P PMIs Dec – Momentum Slows amid price pressures
The Dec PMI survey shows composite output momentum slowing, but the expansion remaining moderate. That said, there were several points of caution in the report, starting with a smaller increase in orders and a pullback in confidence. Marginal employment growth, led by the previously stronger services sector, was notable, constrained by concerns over costs, lacklustre demand, and uncertainty over the economic outlook. The PMI report also noted that price pressures “intensified noticeably” and services inflation was “the steepest in three years” – which was also reflected in rising selling prices.
Outlook for the week ahead: Christmas Holiday week, US Q3 GDP, RBA Minutes
It will be a shorter week this week, with the Holiday season now upon us.
There will still be several key US data releases – including the delayed US Q3 GDP.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US data
- The delayed Q3 GDP will be released this week, and growth is expected to edge lower to a still elevated +3.2% annualized rate, down from +3.8% in Q2.
- Durable Goods Orders for Oct will be released this week, expecting a +0.4% increase over the month.
- Industrial Production for Oct & Nov will be released this week.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey for Dec should capture any rebound/shift in sentiment after the end of the government shutdown.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending 20 Dec are expected to be little changed at 225k (from 224k in the week prior).
The RBA minutes of the Dec meeting will be released. Of particular interest will be the detail of the discussion noted in the press conference around how conditions would need to evolve if rates “had to rise again at some point next year”.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $545bn in ST Bills and FRNs with a paydown of $18bn. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes this week, to settle on 31 Dec.
Approx $14bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
Thank you to all of our valued clients, readers, and friends for your support and friendship in 2025. We sincerely wish you the very best for a wonderful and peaceful holiday season and a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2026.
by Kim | Dec 15, 2025
The key events for the w/c 15 December 2025: Central Bank Decisions – ECB, BoE, and BoJ, US Fed Waller speech, US data: employment situation, retail sales, & CPI, Global CPI reports, S&P prelim PMIs (Dec)
The Recap from Last Week: Central Banks Find Their Own Path
The central bank decisions last week by the FOMC, the RBA, and the BoC continued to highlight policy divergence in response to local pressures. While a broad theme of caution and pause underlies all three decisions, each bank is responding more to specific national nuances as they approach, and now pause at, respective “neutral” policy levels. With its latest rate cut to further mitigate downside risks to employment, the FOMC signalled a pause after hitting a “plausible” neutral range. In contrast, the RBA stayed on hold, while sounding a warning on upside inflation risks. Finally, the BoC remained on hold, reaffirming that its policy rate was “at about the right level” as it manages the complex structural trade adjustment. These three decisions set the stage for the final key meetings of the year from the BoE, ECB, and BoJ this week.
FOMC: Rate Cut Arrives at a Plausible Neutral Range
SUMMARY: The FOMC cut the FFR by 25bps as expected to 3.5% – 3.75%, and now judges policy as within a range of “plausible estimates of neutral”. Chair Powell confirmed that “we’ve been sort of moving in the direction of neutral”, setting up the shift in guidance to signal a pause here “to see how the economy evolves”. The primary risk leading up to the next meeting is a deterioration in the labor market. While key US labor market data continues to catch up after the shutdown – and with Oct & Nov data due this week, Fed Chair Powell has warned over the challenge of data distortions.
DETAIL: The Fed decision was split 9-3 in favour of a cut (one member preferred a 50bps cut, and two preferred to hold (citing inflation and data uncertainty), highlighting the still divided nature of the policy debate.
Given the arrival at a more neutral setting, the cumulative cuts in the cycle so far, and a more constructive outlook for 2026, the key shift was the signal of a pause: “We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves”. Guidance shifted to a more neutral bias, while keeping the door open to modest easing over the next two to three years. This marked a shift from the risk management bias (“considering additional adjustments”) to more of a data-dependent approach, “judging the extent and timing of additional adjustments” – reflecting less certainty over how many cuts and when.
With the cut, the FOMC continued to manage its dual mandate trade-off by prioritizing the “further cooling” in the labor market over inflation that had come in a “touch lower”. Chair Powell noted that he expects unemployment might “kick up one or two more tenths,” but that the cuts to date would help to stabilize unemployment, and that he isn’t expecting a sharper downturn. This suggests that an unemployment rate exceeding the projected year-end rate of 4.5% by more than two tenths could be a trigger for another cut leading up to the Jan meeting.
While risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside for unemployment, the projections for 2026 were somewhat more constructive: solid growth, inflation easing, and unemployment easing. Powell stated, “So it looks like the baseline would be solid growth next year.”
The outlook for the FFR in the dot plot projects modest easing over the next two to three years, with the long-term (LT) neutral rate unchanged at 3%. Near-term dispersion is notable: the median projection for the FFR in 2026 suggests at least one rate cut, but there are twelve members projecting a lower FFR (by between one and six rate cuts), four see a hold through 2026, and three see potential for a hike. Powell firmly ruled out a hike being on the table at this point.
RBA: Hold With Inflation Risks Tilted to the Upside
SUMMARY: The RBA stayed on hold at this meeting as expected, and it was a unanimous decision. The Board elevated its concern over inflation, noting that recent data suggests “inflation risks have tilted to the upside” – a key shift at this meeting. The primary risk remains the Q4 trimmed mean inflation rate and domestic capacity pressures that could position the Feb meeting as live for a hike.
DETAIL: Stronger-than-expected inflation, combined with stronger-than-expected activity in Q3, has fuelled concerns over the inflation outlook. The Board noted “uncertainty over the extent to which monetary policy remains restrictive”, with the RBA Governor adding that the effects of recent cuts are still to be fully transmitted through the economy, potentially adding further to demand.
The Board did not consider a rate cut at this meeting, “given what’s happening with underlying momentum in the economy that it does look like additional cuts are not needed”. While the case for a rate rise was not explicitly considered, the Board did discuss how conditions would need to evolve if rates “had to rise again at some point next year” – we’ll await the Minutes for details on this discussion.
Guidance shifted to a more near-term, cautious bias, given that it would take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. The Q4 CPI was explicitly noted as a key report leading up to the next meeting, to help answer whether the larger-than-expected Q3 trimmed mean was “due to unrelated, one-off factors, or was it demonstrating some underlying capacity pressures in the economy”? The latest SoMP has the trimmed mean inflation rate lifting to +3.2% in Q4 (from +3% in Q3 – which was higher than the SoMP forecast of +2.7%). A reading above the projected Q4 QoQ trimmed mean inflation of +0.8% could trigger concerns for the RBA, suggesting Feb could be a live meeting for a hike. Current market pricing (12 Dec) has a rate hike priced by around Jul 2026. While the RBA is waiting on the Q4 CPI report, its assessment of inflationary pressure will incorporate broader measures of capacity pressures, labour market tightness, and financial conditions. The latest Nov labor market report was published after the meeting with mixed results, even though the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.
BOC: Holding at “About the Right Level”
SUMMARY: The BoC kept policy settings unchanged at this meeting as expected. The decision was unanimous. The key signalling was that the Bank continues to see the current policy rate “at about the right level” to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Holding the policy rate unchanged at the lower end of the neutral range was seen as appropriate, having already delivered significant policy easing. However, the key risk remains supporting the economy, balancing growth and inflation, through the structural trade adjustment.
DETAIL: The Bank suggests economic slack, caused by the structural reconfiguration of trade, is acting to “offset” the cost pressures associated with that reconfiguration. The BoC emphasized that “this is more than a cyclical downturn—it’s a structural transition. Monetary policy cannot restore lost supply. But it can help the economy adjust as long as inflation is well controlled”. The current stickiness of core inflation, despite the economic slack, creates some caution for the Bank while it balances support for the Canadian economy amid nascent signs of stabilization. Despite several upside surprises in recent GDP and unemployment data, there remains a great deal of uncertainty over the path of the economy.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank Decisions – ECB, BoE, and BoJ, US Fed Waller speech, US data: employment situation, retail sales, & CPI, Global CPI reports, S&P prelim PMIs (Dec)
To close out the year, it’s going to be a big week of central bank decisions, important US data beginning to catch up (non-farm payrolls, CPI, retail sales), global inflation reports (UK, Canada, Euro-area, and Japan), and the prelim S&P PMIs for Dec.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Key central bank decisions part 2 and speeches
Bank of England (BoE)
- Expected Action: Markets are expecting the BoE to cut rates by 25bps.
- Decision Focus: After the extremely divided decision at the last meeting, the focus will be on the assessment of the balance of risks (less pronounced inflation risks versus slack building in the economy), as well as any shift in the assessment of policy restrictiveness. The BoE was waiting on additional evidence on the inflation outlook, as well as the budget release, before assessing further rate cuts.
- A further CPI (Nov) and labour market report (3-mth Oct) will be released before the meeting.
European Central Bank (ECB)
- Expected Action: The ECB is expected to keep the Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) unchanged at 2% at this meeting.
- Guidance focus: remains meeting by meeting. ECB President Lagarde recently reaffirmed that “we are in a good place” in regard to activity and policy settings in the Euro area. However, there could be some shift in signalling related to the balance of risks and the inflation and growth outlook, with the release of the latest forecasts.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ)
- Expected Action: Based on speeches over the last several weeks, there is some expectation that the BoJ could hike rates by 25bps as early as this meeting.
- The latest National CPI report for Nov will be released around the time of the meeting.
The US Federal Reserve
- There will be several speeches this week; however, the key speech will be Fed Governor Waller on the Economic Outlook. This will be an important speech outlining Waller’s view on the US economy and the appropriate policy approach.
US labor market data catch-up
This week will feature the key employment situation report for Oct & Nov as well as weekly claims data. Note that the US labor market data for Oct & Nov will be released earlier in the week than usual, on Tue 16 Dec. Most of this data will still likely reflect the effects of the US govt shutdown.
- Non-farm payrolls for Nov are expected to increase by 35k, after +119k in Sept.
- The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.4%.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 Dec are expected to be little changed at 230k (from 236k in the week prior). The trend of continuing claims fell notably in the week ending 29 Nov – likely reflecting the short holiday week as well as normalization after the end of the shutdown.
US Inflation and spending data
- US retail sales for Oct are expected to increase by +0.2%, little changed from +0.2% in Sep. The control group (feeds into the GDP calculation) is expected to increase by +0.2% after falling in Sep. Data is likely to remain subdued as a result of the shutdown.
- US CPI for Nov is expected to increase to +3.2% over the year, up from +3% in Oct. Core CPI is also expected to increase to +3.2% in Nov, from +3% in Oct.
Global CPI reports – Nov
- Canada: headline CPI for Nov is expected to lift back up to +2.4% from +2.2% in Oct. Headline CPI ex gasoline was unchanged at +2.6% in Oct and is expected to remain little changed in Nov. The BoC measures of underlying inflation have shifted lower again and are expected to be unchanged at +2.9% and +3% for the median and trimmed mean, respectively.
- UK CPI core CPI for Nov is expected to be unchanged at +3.4%.
- Euro area CPI (final) for Nov is expected to be confirmed at +2.2% for headline inflation and at +2.4% for core inflation.
- Japan National CPI is expected to be unchanged, with the main BoJ measure of core CPI ex fresh food expected to be +3% in Nov, the same as Oct.
NZ Q3 GDP is expected to increase by +0.9% QoQ, reversing the sharp fall of -0.9% QoQ in Q2.
The prelim S&P PMIs for Dec will be released early this week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $591bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $36bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 20-year Bond and 5-year TIPS this week, to settle on 31 Dec.
Approx $9.1bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Reserve Management Purchase (RPM) operations recommenced last week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Dec 8, 2025
The key events for w/c 8 December 2025: Central Bank Decisions: FOMC, RBA, BoC, Aus Labour Market for Nov, US data: ECI Q3, JOLTS Oct.
The Recap from Last Week – US Data Supports Risk Management Bias
The market widely expects the FOMC to deliver a further rate cut this week, despite the previous decision revealing “strongly differing views” for the Dec meeting. Despite the presence of two-sided risks and “no risk-free path” for the Fed, the risks from cooling labor market conditions have underpinned the recent decisions to ease policy. The data flow leading up to the meeting this week is still likely to support the Fed’s risk management bias, highlighting a backdrop characterized by resilient, albeit sluggish growth, stalled progress on inflation, and evidence that the labor market continues to cool and remains “susceptible to negative shocks”.
Cooling Labor Market Conditions Persist
Cooling conditions in the US labor market have been the key area of concern for the FOMC. Despite a lack of government data since the last meeting, private sector reports likely provide enough direction to maintain that risk management bias.
- The ADP report showed another 32k jobs shed in Nov, particularly in manufacturing and professional services. This contrasted with the recent Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey, which did see a fall in Nov after the elevated number of job cuts announced in Oct.
- The Fed will lean heavily on the most recent Beige Book survey, which showed a slight decline in employment and weaker labor demand, with firms relying on hiring freezes, attrition, and adjusted hours rather than mass layoffs.
- The most recent initial and continuing claims data continue to normalize after the shutdown. Crucially, continuing claims have drifted lower post-shutdown, but remain at an elevated level, highlighting the susceptibility of the labor market to a negative shock.
- The latest Nov S&P PMIs showed some resilience (employment growth steepest in three months in manufacturing and services). But this was countered by the still downbeat view of employment from the ISM surveys – especially in manufacturing.
- The latest JOLTS data for Oct is due this week, with the full Employment Situation report for Nov to be released next week as part of the data catch-up.
Inflation Momentum Contained by Margin Compression
While lagging data suggests progress on inflation has stalled above the 2% target, more recent survey data suggests momentum may be contained by firm-level caution over pricing and competitive pressures.
- PCE Inflation – catch-up release: The Sep report is a significantly lagging datapoint, but it did confirm the concern that inflation progress has stalled: headline PCE inflation hit a YTD high of +2.8%, moving well above the +2.3% recorded a year ago. Core PCE edged down from its Aug YTD high to +2.8% in Sep, and is on par with the rate recorded a year ago, strengthening concerns that inflation progress has stalled.
- The Beige Book: However, surveys suggest some weakness in pricing power. The latest Beige Book showed input prices still increased moderately and were not limited to tariffs. However, there were “multiple reports” that firms had absorbed these increases for now. The outlook for plans to raise prices in the near term was mixed.
- The latest S&P PMIs showed manufacturing firms continued to absorb rising input prices. While services sector inflation increased to “the greatest degree since May”, increases in selling prices remained below recent peaks. The ISM surveys showed price increases remained broadly elevated, but little changed in the manufacturing sector and became less widespread in the services sector.
Activity: Downshifted but Resilient
Amidst persistent cost pressures and the government shutdown, activity has remained resilient, though downshifted to a more sluggish pace.
- The Beige Book reported that economic activity was ‘little changed’ across most districts, noting weakness in consumer spending, resilient manufacturing activity, and “flat-to-down” revenue in the services sector.
- The latest S&P PMIs for Nov showed growth momentum had remained broadly moderate and unchanged from Oct, as solid services sector activity helped to offset some weakness in manufacturing demand.
Central Bank Previews – Focus on Policy Outlook
- The FOMC: While a further rate cut is expected by the FOMC this week, the decision will be important for its signalling on the outlook. There was a notable division at the last meeting on the current policy stance, between those who thought policy was still restrictive and needed to move toward neutral and those who thought policy was “not clearly restrictive”, supporting a slower cadence of cuts. The latest projections should reflect how policymakers have shifted their views on the path of rates, as well as expectations for the economy.
- The RBA meets this week – and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. This will also be an important meeting, not so much for the decision, but for the parsing of recent data (firmer inflation, stronger labour market, and solid growth) and the implications for the outlook. At the last meeting, the RBA Governor noted that the recent data flow has led to increased uncertainty over the assessment that monetary policy remains a “little restrictive”. Based on the data flow since then, markets have removed rate cuts from the outlook and even started to price in the chances of a hike. The signalling in this decision will be important for the outlook.
- Finally, the BoC will also meet this week and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. At the last meeting, the BoC signalled that it saw its policy rate of 2.25% as “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%”. The latest Canadian labor market report for Nov confirmed a firming trend in employment growth, while the unemployment rate stepped notably lower from 6.9% to 6.5%.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank Decisions: FOMC, RBA, BoC, Aus Labour Market for Nov, US data: ECI Q3, JOLTS Oct.
The focus shifts firmly to central bank decisions this week, including the FOMC, RBA, and BoC. While the decisions are widely expected to be clear-cut, the signalling on policy stance and the implications for the outlook will be in focus for markets.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Key central bank decisions
US Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC)
- Expected Action: Markets are expecting the FOMC to cut rates again this week to: 3.5% – 3.75%
- Decision Focus: Details of the decision will be in focus – the status of the decision (still a risk management cut?), the balance of risks to the outlook (labor market versus inflation bias?), and changes to the degree of dissent/division among committee members on the policy stance compared to the previous meeting.
- Forward Guidance: The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released. In focus will be any change to the cadence of policy easing as well as updates to the outlook for growth, inflation, and the labor market. Expect uncertainty to be elevated given the lack of data, effects of post-shutdown normalization on the economy, and fiscal impacts in early 2026.
- Post-meeting speeches will also be in focus.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
- Expected Action: The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting this week.
- Signalling Focus: Details of the decision will be a key focus – especially around how recent firmer data may change the Board’s view on the current policy stance (previously, “increased uncertainty” over whether policy was a “little restrictive”).
- Domestic Data: The Nov labour market survey is expected to show continued growth in employment of +20k, down from +42k in Oct. The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up to 4.4% from 4.3% in Oct.
The Bank of Canada (BoC)
- Expected Action: The BoC is expected to keep policy settings unchanged at this meeting at 2.25%.
US labor market data
- Ahead of the release next week of the up-to-date Employment Situation report for Nov, the latest JOLTS data for Oct will be released this week. Job openings for Oct are expected to be 7.2m in Oct, little changed from 7.22m in Sep. This report will provide our first read on any shift to the low-hiring/low-firing dynamic of the US labor market.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 6 Dec are expected to increase slightly to 221k from 191k wk ending 29 Nov, which reflected the short week for Thanksgiving. The trend of continuing claims will be in focus for the wk ending 29 Nov, given the recent downshift post-shutdown.
- Data catch-up: US Employment Cost Index Q3: QoQ expecting +0.9%, unchanged from +0.9% in Q2.
- The catch-up international trade data for Sept will be released this week (BEA), with the release of the initial estimate of US Q3 GDP growth pushed out to 23 Dec.
Updated US data release schedules
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) schedule page can be found here.
- The US Census Bureau page can be found here.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $502bn in ST Bills, with a net paydown of $38bn. The US Treasury will also auction the 30-year Bond, 3-year, and 10-year Notes this week – all will settle next week on 15 Dec.
Approx $11bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
