The outlook for w/c 30 September 2019 – A full week of data, US Fed speeches and it’s also quarter end.
Important US data out this week; non-farm payrolls and employment, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s for Sep and the final Markit PMI’s for Sep.
There is also a full week of Fed speeches. The highlight will be on Friday with a ‘Fed Listens’ event – “Fed Listens: Perspectives on Maximum Employment and Price Stability”. US Fed Chairman Powell will give the opening remarks at this event. Also speaking will be Board members Brainard and Quarles.
Other speeches of note will be; Board Vice Chairman Clarida (Thursday) – outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Wall Street Journal’s Future of Global Markets event in New York.
Across Europe, the final PMI’s for Sep will be released as well as Euro Area and German CPI and retail sales data.
The final PMI’s for the UK in Sep and Q2 GDP will also be in focus this week. Brexit is now coming into the *final* four week stretch. Further alternative plans for the Irish border issue are expected to be tabled with the EU later this week.
The focus on Australia will be on the RBA rates decision on Tuesday. The expectations are for a further cut in the overnight cash rate to 0.75% (at 27 Sep 2019 a 78% expectation https://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm). The probability for a further rate cut increased after the labour market data in mid-Sep indicated unemployment had moved higher. Later in the week, Aus retail sales data will also be released.
On trade, the WTO is expected to announce this week the findings of its arbitration on the amount of US tariffs related to the Airbus case.
US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week and its quarter end. The US Treasury will settle $297bn in ST bills, notes and TIPS this week, raising approx. $51bn in new money.
More detail (including a calendar of key events) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Several data releases from last week w/c 23 September will instead be included in the Weekly Macro Review for w/c 30 September 2019 (next week).
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
