The focus this week will be on US non-farm payrolls, final global PMI’s for Feb, the RBA rates decision, and several speeches by US Fed Chair Powell and US Fed Governor Brainard.
The main data releases in the US include non-farm payrolls and the ISM reports on manufacturing and services for Feb. Tracking initial claims trends continue to be in focus.
Notable US Fed speeches this week include speeches by US Fed Chair Powell and US Fed Governor Brainard.
The RBA will meet this week. With the recent move in rates, the RBA has increased 3-year bond purchases already this week and we expect more commentary on QE and YCC in the decision. Other key releases in Australia this week include housing finance for Jan, Q4 GDP, and retail sales for Jan.
The US Fed plans to purchase $20.77bn in US Treasury securities (last week $22.4bn). The Fed will also purchase $31.66bn in MBS ($32.4bn last week). The target for the monthly increase in Fed holdings of MBS is at least $40bn/mth.
US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week. While there will be a paydown in Bills, the US Treasury will settle approx. $440bn in Bills, Notes, and Bonds raising approx. $84bn in new money.
This week, approx. $19.3bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
