The key events for the w/c 23 February 2026: US tariff ruling fallout, State of the Union, earnings, data (PPI), and geopolitical headline risks.
Outlook for the week ahead
Events in the coming week highlight the macroeconomic and geopolitical crosscurrents facing markets right now. While the U.S. domestic data calendar is relatively light this week, broader uncertainty is being shaped by renewed trade policy upheaval, structural technological change, and heightened geopolitical risk. As markets digest the administration’s latest pivot toward a 15% blanket tariff, President Trump will give the State of the Union address this week, likely addressing trade, tariffs, and the upcoming midterms.
Beyond Washington, market sentiment regarding AI capability is shifting from broad excitement toward a more critical assessment of viability across sectors, placing tech earnings under the spotlight this week. Simultaneously, the geopolitical environment remains one of elevated risk; tensions with Iran have intensified following the US President’s 10-to-15-day ultimatum.
With Fed officials, such as Governor Waller, providing his latest assessment of the US economic outlook, and key data points from Australia, Japan, and Canada filling the gaps, the week ahead is less about new data and more about how these forces might shift or reshape economic expectations for 2026.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Trade & Policy: The State of the Union and the Tariff Pivot
- Focus: the weekend announcement of a pivot to a 15% blanket tariff, plus what the Supreme Court ruling will mean for existing or newly negotiated trade deals. This is a fluid situation with many open questions, especially about how the administration will navigate this ruling and what it will mean for the broader economy.
- US President Trump’s State of the Union speech.
Technology: From AI Excitement to Structural Repricing
- Earnings, and especially tech earnings, will be in focus this week (Nvidia).
The Fed & Inflation: Parsing the Last of 2025
- There will be several US Fed speeches, but of note will be Fed Gov Waller on the Economic Outlook – usually an important speech that will provide his updated view of growth, inflation, and labor market risks. Gov Waller was one of two dissents at the last FOMC meeting – preferring a further 25bps cut. Gov Waller will also give another speech later in the week on “Technology”.
- Fed Governor Cook will give a speech on AI and Productivity, and Vice Chair (Supervision) Bowman will provide testimony at the Hearing on Update from the Prudential Regulators.
- US PPI for Jan will be released this week (Fri) – an important catch-up release, providing key inputs for the more up-to-date PCE price index data for Jan. Headline PPI for Jan is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month in Jan (from +0.5% in Dec), while the annual headline rate is expected to slow to +2.6% in Jan (from +3% in Dec). Core PPI is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month in Jan (from +0.7% in Dec), while the annual rate is expected to slow to +3% in Jan (from +3.3% in Dec).
Global Data
- Australia: The new monthly CPI series for Jan is expected to show little change in core measures of CPI. From the prior report, the Dec trimmed mean came in at +3.3% over the year, while the median CPI came in at +3.6% over the year. Inflation remains a key area of concern for the RBA. Aus GDP partials will also be released throughout the week.
- Japan: Tokyo CPI for Feb; the core CPI – ex fresh food is expected to slow to +1.7% over the year in Feb from +2% in Jan.
- Canada: GDP for Q4 will be important ahead of the BoC’s assessment of economic activity. While growth in Q3 had come in higher than expected at +0.6%, there was concern that growth may have stalled through Q4.
Geopolitical Risks
- Iran: Based on the 19 Feb announcement of a 10–15-day deadline for Iran to make a deal on its nuclear program or face possible military action, this is an important week in the lead-up to that deadline.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $562bn in ST Bills, FRNs, and 30-Year TIPS, raising approx. $74bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes this week – to settle on 2 Mar. Approx $10bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
