This weekly macro outlook highlights the key economic events, central bank meetings, and macro themes shaping global markets for the week of April 27, 2026.
Key Events to Watch:
- Central bank meetings: FOMC, BoJ, ECB, BoE, BoC
- Major data: Inflation (Aus Q1 CPI, US PCE Inflation Mar, Euro area CPI Apr, Tokyo CPI Apr), ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr, US GDP Q1
- Key themes: geopolitical risks, headline inflation
Recap of Last Week: Impasse Amidst Momentum
We are now into the ninth week of the conflict that continues to defy a diplomatic resolution. Previous optimism regarding a near-term de-escalation has been replaced by a renewed geopolitical impasse, with no clear roadmap for normalization. Despite this, markets currently appear to be pricing de-escalation as the most likely outcome.
However, a stark contrast remains between the physical “hard stop” of the Strait and oil flows, and an economy that is continuing to push forward. The main implication of the impasse, and what matters for now, is that conditions on the ground remain unchanged: the Strait is still effectively closed, and oil flows are still severely disrupted. This keeps the risk elevated that this disruption may evolve from a temporary headline price shock to something more structural.
Global CPI’s – Tracking the Headline Energy Impact
Last week, we continued to see the “leading edge” effects of higher energy costs in headline inflation. For now, these effects appear limited to headline inflation, with core inflation remaining steady or slightly lower – a critical input for central banks meeting this week.
- NZ Q1 CPI was higher than expected at +0.9% (expecting +0.6%). Annual inflation remained unchanged at +3.1%, above the RBNZ’s target band. Core inflation remained elevated at +2.6% in Q1, up from +2.5% in Q4 2025, and the details highlight firming in the inflation backdrop ahead of this conflict.
- Canada’s headline CPI increased to +2.4% in March (from +1.8% in Feb) due to higher gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline prices, the CPI slowed to +2.2% in March (from +2.4% in Feb). The BoC preferred measures of core inflation remained stable at an average of +2.3%.
- UK CPI for March increased to +3.3% over the year (from +3.0% in Feb), led by higher gasoline prices. Core inflation eased to +3.1% in March, from +3.2% in Feb.
- Japan National CPI for March increased to +1.5% (from +1.3% in Feb). While energy prices jumped +3.9% over the month in March, Government subsidies in prior months cushioned the impact. The BoJ’s core measure (ex-fresh food) rose to +1.8%, driven largely by sticky food inflation (+5.2%).
US Retail Sales Growth Improved in March
As expected, there was a sharp increase in nominal retail sales in March due to the increase in gasoline prices (+21% via the March CPI report). Nominal retail sales growth was higher than expected at +1.7% over the month in March (expecting +1.4%). Most categories contributed to the growth in retail sales.
Even after deflating the nominal series by the CPI, real US retail sales increased by a still solid +0.8% over the month in March. This result improved the near-term growth run-rate, shifting the Atlanta Fed GDP Q1 nowcast back to +1.24%. Within that, the consumer spending (PCE) contribution to the headline growth increased back up to +0.95% pts, although still behind the higher contribution recorded at the start of the quarter of around +2.0% pts.
Prelim PMIs for April – Mixed Outlook
The prelim S&P PMIs for April were another leading-edge indicator of firm-level impacts in the second month of the conflict. While there was some improvement, or resilience, in manufacturing activity and output, details suggest this was driven by a more defensive posture by firms. Manufacturing firms reported building inventories and increasing buying activity, fearing price hikes and shortages due to the conflict. Broadly, the output momentum in the services sector continued to slow, except for the US and UK reporting modest rebounds. Reports of higher input inflation were not limited to energy prices, with many reports, especially in the US, noting prices are rising for a “wide variety of goods and services”. Firms cited the uncertain environment for stalling employment growth. Sentiment shifted sharply lower, especially in the Eurozone, amid the energy price shock.
Outlook for the week ahead: Key central bank meetings, US and global inflation data, US GDP Q1, and ISM manufacturing PMI Apr
The geopolitical impasse will make this week’s central bank calculus increasingly complex. While policymakers prefer to ‘look through’ short-term supply-side energy spikes, the duration of the conflict may test the limits of that strategy. For now, central banks are expected to remain in a cautious, patient mode, contingent on the view of a near-term resolution.
However, the longer the conflict remains unresolved, and prices stay elevated, the greater the risk of persistent inflation pressure, which may force a policy tightening response to prevent de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Central banks are in a nervous “waiting game”, monitoring whether these ‘leading edge’ costs begin to bleed into core inflation and/or trigger a growth shock.
This may also be Fed Chair Powell’s last meeting as the Chair of the FOMC, with the DoJ reportedly halting its investigation. If so, then this clears the way for the Senate to confirm Kevin Warsh.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Central Bank meetings and policy decisions
This will be the second round of meetings under this geopolitical uncertainty. Most central banks are expected to stay on hold this week, maintaining a cautious stance while balancing the uncertainty of the conflict duration with real-time impacts on inflation and growth. We’ll get a further sense of how policy makers are balancing mandate risks amid the conflict, and what it will mean for signalling on the policy outlook, contingent on the trajectory of the conflict.
- The BoJ is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, after signalling recently that a hike at this meeting was not assured. There will also be an updated set of forecasts released at this meeting.
- The FOMC is expected to keep policy settings unchanged.
- The BoC is expected to stay on hold.
- The ECB is expected to stay on hold.
- The BoE is expected to stay on hold.
Inflation reports
AUS Q1 CPI: This will be important in the lead-up to the RBA next week. The RBA has hiked rates at the prior two meetings, responding to an already firming inflation backdrop ahead of this conflict. These Q1 inflation numbers will provide the first view of the impact of higher energy prices.
- Q1 headline CPI is expected to increase by +1.4% in Q1, up from +0.6% in Q4 2025. Headline inflation is expected to increase to +4.1% over the year in Q1, from +3.6% in Q4.
- The monthly series is expected to show a sharp increase in headline CPI rising to +4.8% in March, from +3.7% in Feb.
US PCE inflation for March – this has been well telegraphed through the March CPI and PPI reports.
- Headline PCE is expected to remain firm at +0.6% over the month, up from +0.4% in Feb. Annual PCE inflation is expected to increase to +3.4% in March, up from +2.8% in Feb.
- Core PCE inflation is expected to remain more subdued, increasing by +0.2% over the month, down from +0.4% in Feb. Annual core PCE inflation is still expected to increase to +3.1% in March, up from +3% in Feb.
Euro area prelim CPI for April will provide the first look at the impact of higher energy costs in the second month of the conflict.
- Headline CPI is expected to increase to +3% over the year in April, from +2.6% in March. However, core CPI is expected to ease slightly to +2.1% in April, from +2.3% in March.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI will provide a limited view of inflation leading into April also.
- Core CPI – ex fresh food is expected to increase to +1.8% in April, from +1.7% in March.
US Growth
- The prelim Q1 GDP release is expected to increase to +2.2% (annualized), up from +0.5% annualized pace in Q4.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI for April is expected to show a modest increase to 53.2, from 52.7 in March.
- Personal income in March is expected to increase to +0.3%, up from -0.1% in Feb. Personal spending is also expected to lift by +0.9% in March, up from +0.5% in Feb.
US Treasury Issuance
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $712bn in ST Bills, TIPS, Notes, Bonds, and FRN’s with a paydown of $17bn.
Approx $51.1bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and FRN’s will mature on the Fed balance sheet and be reinvested.
A detailed version of this outlook, including the full calendar of key data releases, is available in the briefing document below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
For a structured, technical analysis view of global markets that complements this macro outlook, explore the latest Mars Market Update.
