This Weekly Macro Outlook highlights the key economic data releases, central bank events & speeches, and macro themes shaping global markets for the week of September 28, 2026.
Key Focus This Week:
- Central banks: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting, US Fed speeches
- Major data: US labor market update, PCE Inflation, & GDP, CPI – Aus, Euro area, & Tokyo
- Key themes: Middle East conflict developments
Recap of Last Week
With inflation pressures remaining elevated amid the persistent energy price shock, policymakers have become focused on limiting second-round effects and keeping inflation expectations anchored. Central banks have increasingly shifted towards tighter settings.
At the same time, the global growth backdrop has remained much more resilient than expected despite the persistence of the energy supply shock. Last week, the S&P Global flash PMIs for September highlighted that growth momentum remained broadly resilient into the final month of Q3.
Flash S&P Global PMIs (Sept) – Growth Resilience
Last week’s light data calendar placed more emphasis than usual on the S&P Global flash PMIs for September. These showed that growth momentum remained broadly resilient into the end of Q3, although increasingly uneven across key markets. A further lift in growth momentum was especially evident in US services and manufacturing PMIs. The expansion in Eurozone services also strengthened – while the expansion in manufacturing activity remained moderate. Japanese PMIs remained at a moderate pace of expansion, but momentum slowed somewhat. In Australia, manufacturing growth momentum stalled while the expansion in the services sector slowed.
US Growth Firming?
The most notable result from the flash PMI surveys last week was the further strengthening in the US manufacturing and services sectors on top of already moderate growth momentum. The US manufacturing PMI increased to a five-year high of 57, and the services PMI increased to a four-and-a-half-year high of 58.7. The expansion was supported by growth in output and employment, resulting in rising backlogs and broader supply chain delays. Input costs continued to increase; however, output prices were little changed at this stage.
The latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast also continues to reinforce the stronger US growth backdrop so far in the quarter. Last week, the update to the GDP nowcast was limited to New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders data for August, resulting in little change to the GDP growth run rate of a +5% annualized pace so far in Q3.
The firming US growth backdrop also reinforced the Fed’s recent policy tightening. Last week, Fed speakers maintained the more hawkish tone from the latest FOMC meeting. Notably, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, NY Fed President Williams, said it was “reasonable to think that the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates again before the end of the year to help bring down inflation risks” (source: Reuters). But he added an important caveat: “depending on how the data evolve in the intermeeting period”.
The stronger growth run rate so far in Q3, accelerating PMIs in Sept, and hawkish Fed commentary continued to be reflected in rate hike expectations last week. Markets are currently pricing the probability of a further two hikes this year (Source: CME FedWatch). However, the more comprehensive suite of US data in the coming week will provide a better test of this strengthening US growth narrative.
Australia – Policy Transmission Emerging?
In contrast, Australian data suggested a somewhat cooling growth backdrop. This moderation follows the three RBA rate hikes already delivered earlier this year, so far returning the cash rate to the cycle high of 4.35%.
The Aussie flash PMI for September showed private sector growth momentum slowing at the end of Q3, reversing the moderate expansion at the start of the quarter. Manufacturing output contracted at a more pronounced pace, led by weaker demand. The expansion in services output also slowed, but remained at a positive, albeit modest pace. Across both sectors, employment growth stalled, and sentiment weakened due to concerns over cost pressures and demand weakness. One softer PMI doesn’t establish a slowdown, but it makes us alert to whether the effects of earlier tightening are beginning to emerge.
At the same time, the August labour market data provided mixed signals. Employment growth was higher than expected, but was led by part-time employment growth. An increase in participation led to a mechanical increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% (from 4.5%) – which is now slightly above the RBA forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2026.
For the RBA, the transmission from earlier tightening is likely to become increasingly important as it balances its policy mandates. Last week, RBA Governor Bullock reiterated previous comments that upside inflation risks may be materialising. She also noted that some increase in the unemployment rate (to between 4.5% and 5%) would probably be enough to take some of the heat from the labour market and pressure off inflation. Markets are pricing in another rate hike at the RBA meeting this week (Source: ASX RBA Rate Tracker).
The Week Ahead: What We Are Watching
It’s a pivotal week of key US macro data that will help to test this emerging growth narrative, as well as the trajectory of inflation.
More specifically, we will be looking at whether the incoming US data reinforce the case for further tightening, or does it begin to challenge the more hawkish growth and inflation narrative.
The US data this week will provide a comprehensive update on key inflation, labor market, and growth indicators – including non-farm payrolls and unemployment for September, PCE inflation for August, and growth inputs for Q3, including personal spending, income, factory orders, and the preliminary goods trade data for August.
There will also be a significant number of Fed speeches this week.
Outside of the US, the RBA meets this week and is expected to hike rates again, and the Euro area prelim CPI and Tokyo CPI for September will be released.
The Middle East conflict also remains in focus. Progress towards an enduring resolution to the conflict potentially alters the outlook for the supply-side shock for central banks.
US Labor Market – September
This week there will be a broad update on the US labor market for September – and importantly, whether the strong rebound in August job growth will be sustained.
- Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by +98k, from +162k in Aug. The size and direction of revisions to the two prior months will be important.
- The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.1%.
- Job openings from the JOLTS survey are expected to be little changed at 7.23m in Aug, from 7.27m in Jul.
- Average weekly hours are expected to slow to 34.3hours/week, from 34.4 in Aug.
- Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% over the month and remain little changed at +3.1% over the year.
- The latest Challenger Gray Job Cut Announcements survey for Sep will provide an outlook for corporate job cuts and hiring announcements. Job cut announcements had increased in Aug to 52k.
US PCE Inflation – August
Changes to the methodology of the PCE calculation are expected this month. The figures quoted below do not incorporate changes to the estimates, but are expected to reduce headline PCE inflation by approximately 0.2% pts. According to the latest Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast:
- Headline PCE inflation is expected to increase by +0.34% over the month in Aug, from +0.2% in Jul. Annual headline PCE inflation is expected to increase by +3.8% in Aug, from +3.7% in Jul.
- Core PCE inflation is expected to increase by +0.27% over the month in Aug, from +0.25% in Jul. Annual core PCE inflation is expected to remain unchanged at +3.4% in Aug.
US Growth Inputs
- GDP Q2 – the final estimate is expected to be confirmed at +1.5% annualized.
- Personal income is expected to increase by +0.5% over the month in Aug, from +0.4% in Jul.
- Personal spending is expected to increase by +1% over the month in Aug, from +0.2% in Jul.
- The preliminary goods trade balance for Aug is expected to narrow slightly to -$113bn from -$118bn.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI for Sep will be important confirmation of the strengthening seen in the US S&P manufacturing PMI last week. The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 55 in Sep from 54.9 in Aug.
- Factory orders in Aug are expected to be flat after a +0.9% increase in Jul.
US Fed speeches
There will be a significant number of Fed speeches through the week. The Fed calendar has details. Specific speeches that may hold some signal for the policy outlook: Barr (economic outlook), Vice Chair Jefferson (US economy and monetary policy), Waller (Fed Reserve econ data), Cook (global central banking).
Australia – RBA Meeting & CPI for August
- The RBA is expected to hike the cash rate again by 25bps at this meeting to 4.60%.
- Headline CPI in the monthly CPI series for Aug is expected to increase to +4.1% in Aug, from 3.5% in Jul. The trimmed mean (core CPI) is expected to be little changed at +3.6% in Aug.
Global CPI for September – Euro area prelim and Tokyo CPI
- The prelim Euro area headline CPI for Sep is expected to increase to +3.7% from +3.2% in Aug. Core CPI is expected to increase to +2.5% in Sep, from +2.4% in Aug.
- The Tokyo core CPI – ex fresh food is expected to increase to +2.4% in Sep, from +1.8% in Aug.
S&P Global PMIs – Final September
The broader suite of S&P Global PMIs will begin to be released later this week.
US Treasury Issuance: 28 September – 2 October 2026
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $765bn in T-Bills, Notes, and TIPs, raising approx. $52bn in new money. Approx. $81bn in T-Bills will mature on the Fed’s balance sheet and will be reinvested.
A detailed version of this outlook, including the full calendar of key data releases, is available in the briefing document below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
For a structured, technical analysis outlook for global markets that complements this macro outlook, explore the latest Mars Market Update.
