by Kim | Mar 30, 2026
The key events for the w/c 30 March 2026 – US: non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, & retail sales, Global PMIs, Euro area CPI (prelim) Mar
Macro Recap: Gauging the Economic Impact
The conflict involving Iran is now entering its fifth week, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. While markets remain sensitive to headlines and the prospect of a sudden diplomatic resolution, recent developments suggest the risk of a more protracted timeline. Frequent claims of “progress” and “negotiations” have been met with Iranian rebukes. Reports of U.S. ground troop arrivals indicate a potential shift in the scope of the engagement. As this conflict moves from days into months, concern is growing over the potential for lasting economic damage.
S&P Prelim PMIs – March
Our attention now shifts to the incoming March data to begin the task of gauging the economic impact of this latest shock. The longer the crisis keeps the Strait closed, the greater the risk of a more pronounced and persistent effect on both prices and growth.
Last week’s prelim S&P PMIs for March provided an early look at this impact. Reflecting data collected between March 12 and 23, these reports capture the initial reactions of firms to the escalating conflict. Most regions noted more widespread input price pressures driven by higher energy costs, the building of safety stocks, lengthening lead times, and waning sentiment in the outlook.
Across the major economies, the PMIs revealed a divergence in resilience:
- UK & Eurozone: these markets are more exposed to the energy impacts of the conflict and have already shown signs of weakening output and rising prices. In the Eurozone, the slowdown was led by services, while the UK recorded slower output growth in both services and manufacturing sectors.
- Japan: the prelim PMI reflected a modest slowdown in the growth trajectory, but remained in expansionary territory. The Japanese government was already implementing a large-scale fiscal response to cost-of-living pressures (inflation) before this conflict, and has now moved to include gasoline subsidies to buffer the impact of further inflation pressure on households.
- Australia: There was a sharp turnaround in the Aus PMIs, led by a shift in services output from moderate expansion in Feb to a notable contraction in Mar. Part of this stronger reaction may be the result of the initial hike in interest rates at the start of Feb to reign in already persistent inflation. Now, there is the added pressure of the Middle East conflict and a follow-up rate hike at the Mar meeting.
- US: The prelim PMI showed output growth only edged slightly lower, with the expansion remaining modest for now. The pullback in demand for services was only partially offset by an expansion in manufacturing output as firms began to build safety stock amid the Middle East uncertainty. Input and output price increases became more widespread. Sentiment in the outlook was mixed; however, the composite employment index contracted slightly for the first time since Feb 2025.
Outlook for the week ahead: US: non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, & retail sales, Global PMIs, Euro area CPI (prelim) Mar
A heavier data calendar arrives this week as markets continue to navigate significant headline risks. The focus is twofold: tracking the resilience of the U.S. domestic backdrop and identifying the broader global impact of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. Domestic Resilience: Key updates will provide an updated view of the U.S. labor market and the domestic growth trajectory. This includes non-farm payrolls for Mar, retail sales for Feb, and the ISM manufacturing PMI for Mar.
Global Impact and Inflation Outlook: The second pillar of the week involves data points more directly exposed to the geopolitical shock. The Eurozone prelim CPI for Mar will be an important gauge of headline versus core inflation divergence. Additionally, the full suite of Global S&P PMIs will offer a more comprehensive look at initial impacts on supply chains and input costs across various regions.
Despite the shortened week due to the Easter holiday, U.S. non-farm payrolls will be released as scheduled on Friday, April 3.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Labor Market – March
Markets are expecting a rebound from last month’s weak labor market report; however, conditions are broadly expected to reflect that the ‘low dynamism’ mode is persisting.
- Non-farm payroll growth is expected to rebound to +56k in Mar (from -92k in Feb). The direction of revisions will also be important for any change in the trajectory of growth.
- The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.4% in Mar.
- Participation is expected to be little changed at 62%.
- Average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.4% over the month in Mar (unchanged from Feb), while the annual pace is expected to increase by +3.8%.
- The JOLTS report for Feb is expected to show job openings slow to 6.9m, down from 6.94m in Jan.
- The Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey for Mar may provide some further anecdotes on labor demand. Last month, job cut announcements fell to 48k.
US growth backdrop
The tracking for US GDP growth so far in Q1 has edged lower to 2% based on the latest update of the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.
- US retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4% in Feb, rebounding from -0.2% in Jan.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI for March may also start to reflect some initial impact from the Middle East conflict on US firms. The headline PMI is expected to be little changed at 52.3 in Mar. The ISM Services PMI for Mar will be released on 6 Apr.
FOMC speeches
- There will be several speeches throughout the week. Of note will be Fed Chair Powell in a “moderated discussion” at Harvard University. It’s unclear whether he’ll speak on the economic outlook at this event.
- NY Fed President Williams will also give keynote remarks on Monday on the economy.
Euro area CPI Prelim – March
This prelim release for the Euro area CPI will be one of the first official CPI reports for the initial month of the conflict; however, the final release in two weeks should provide a more complete view. While headline inflation is expected to increase on the back of higher energy costs, the trend of core inflation will remain most in focus for the ECB throughout this shock, to gauge whether higher energy prices are feeding into broader inflation.
- Euro area headline CPI – prelim Mar is expected to increase by +2.5% over the year in Mar, notably higher than the +1.9% inflation rate in Feb.
- Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at +2.4% in Mar (from +2.4% in Feb).
The full suite of S&P Global PMIs for March may show some early impacts from the Middle East conflict.
Other key releases this week:
- The RBA minutes of the last meeting (consecutive rate hike) will be released this week and should provide some insight into the debate over the decision to hike now versus hike later, resulting in the close 5-4 decision to hike in Mar and what that might mean for the near-term path of rates.
- UK GDP growth for Q4 is expected to remain subdued at +0.1% over the quarter, and +1% over the year.
- Tokyo CPI for March could provide an early view of inflation impacts in Japan, while accounting for key government subsidy offsets. Tokyo Core CPI ex fresh food is expected to be unchanged at +1.8% over the year.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $690bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS, raising approx. $37bn in new money. Approx $38.4bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 23, 2026
The key events for the w/c 23 March 2026: Prelim S&P PMIs March, global CPI reports: Japan, Aus, and the UK
Macro Recap: The Central Bank Response
The conflict in the Middle East has now entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Markets are closely watching developments around the US ultimatum to reopen the Strait, with headline risk elevated in both directions.
Against this backdrop, last week’s central bank meetings provided important insight into how policymakers are assessing the risks of this evolving shock. While policy decisions diverged, a common theme emerged: central banks have shifted into a more conditional stance, balancing rising inflation risks from energy prices against uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict.
But as policymakers moved to manage expectations, global bond markets responded with a notable sell-off, pushing yields higher as investors began to price in the inflationary implications of a prolonged energy shock.
RBA: +25bps Hike
This was the second consecutive hike by the RBA, which signalled a pull-forward of its expected May hike. The primary driver of the decision was the further upside risk to inflation due to the energy price shock, occurring against a backdrop where inflation was already “too high”. The 5-4 decision in favour of a hike (versus hold) reflected a Board split on when to hike, not whether to hike.
“The Board concluded that the cash rate was not at a level consistent with returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame.” RBA Governor Bullock
BoE: Hawkish Hold
The decision to stay on hold was unanimous. Before the onset of hostilities, markets had priced the possibility of a cut at this meeting. The decision to hold reflected a sharp pivot from the “continued disinflation” narrative to the expected inflation risk “caused” by this conflict. As a result, guidance shifted from “expecting more cuts” to “stand ready to act”. The key friction, however, stems from a growth and labour market backdrop that is far more subdued than during the energy price shock in 2022, a point noted by Governor Bailey.
“The recent experience of high inflation may also make households and businesses more sensitive to a new inflationary shock. At the same time, the starting point for this shock is a real economy with limited pricing power. Holding Bank Rate at this meeting is appropriate.” BoE Governor Bailey
BoJ: Hawkish Hold
The BoJ retained its guidance for hikes and policy normalisation. The decision to hold maintained the balance between achieving its inflation target through the “virtuous cycle” of wages and prices while the economy continues to recover. Governor Ueda expects that downward growth impacts from the conflict would likely be temporary; if so, rate hikes remain on the table. He also noted concern among Board members that inflation risks were skewed to the upside by energy prices. Furthermore, Takata’s dissent explicitly highlighted a key friction: upside risks to inflation against an inflation backdrop already largely at target with inflation expectations rising ‘moderately’.
“Even if economic growth were to decline, if that development is temporary and there’s not so much impact on the trajectory of the price trend then of course it will be possible to raise interest rates,” BoJ Governor Ueda
FOMC: Hold
A more neutral decision by the FOMC, albeit with hawkish undertones. The hold was based on the ongoing tension in the Fed’s dual mandate goals, where upside risks to inflation exist against the backdrop of downside risks to the labor market. While Chair Powell noted several times that it was “too soon” to establish the scope and duration of the conflict’s impact, committee members upgraded their growth and inflation outlooks. During the press conference, Chair Powell highlighted a lack of progress on core goods inflation. The FOMC maintained its easing bias, but trimmed expectations to a median of one cut this year.
“Not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation. It should come as we start to see in the middle of the year, progress on tariffs going through once and then tariff inflation coming down. That’s — we should be seeing that. And the rate forecast is conditional on the performance of the economy. So if we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see a rate cut.” Fed Chair Powell
ECB: Hawkish Hold
The decision to stay on hold maintained its “Three Times Two” (2% Target, 2% Expectations, 2% Rates) baseline. However, risks have diverged, with forecast revisions for higher inflation and lower growth due to energy prices. Europe is at the forefront of this unfolding energy price shock, and uncertainty remains elevated. The ECB outlined two key scenarios for action and signalled greater agility and preparedness in the face of this latest shock.
“I think we are both well positioned and well equipped to deal with the development of a major shock that is unfolding, and we will continue doing that.” ECB President Lagarde
BoC: Dovish Hold
The decision to stay on hold primarily cited recent weaker activity and downside growth risks, while remaining alert to the inflationary risks from rising energy prices. The BoC has been lowering rates (now at the lower floor of ‘neutral’) to support the economy through structural trade and tariff adjustments; inflation slowed to +1.8% in Feb. While the Bank would look through the immediate impact on inflation, it remains committed to preventing those effects from broadening and becoming persistent. The BoC appears alert to a policy error – hiking into weakening economy in early 2026 – and shifted guidance, removing “the policy rate remains appropriate”.
“With inflation close to target and the economy in excess supply, the risk that higher energy prices quickly spread to the prices of other goods and serviceslooks contained.” BoC Governor Macklem
Outlook for the week ahead: Prelim S&P PMIs March, global CPI reports: Japan, Aus, and the UK.
The week ahead is relatively light on data, but the macro backdrop remains dominated by geopolitical developments and their implications for energy prices and inflation.
Geopolitical risks will remain elevated, as the start of the week remains within the US 48-hour ultimatum window for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Headline risks remain elevated in both directions.
Of most interest on the data front this week will be the S&P preliminary PMIs for key developed markets at the start of March. These releases may provide some of the first indications of how the conflict is beginning to impact business activity, pricing, and sentiment.
There will also be several important CPI reports for Japan, Aus, and the UK for Feb.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
S&P Prelim PMI’s for March
- While it may be too early for a broad view, the PMI reports may provide some of the first insights into business impacts as the conflict began. Specifically: prices, business outlook sentiment, and supply chain impacts.
FOMC speeches
There will be several Fed speeches this week. Of note will be Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on the Economic Outlook and Energy Effects on 26 Mar. Governor Barr will also speak on the Economy on the same day. Other scheduled speeches will be noted in the calendar.
Global CPI reports – Feb
- Japan: National Core CPI ex fresh food is expected to slow to +1.7% in Feb, from +2% in Jan.
- Australia: Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at +3.8% in Feb.
- UK: Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at +3% in Feb, while core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at +3.1% in Feb.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $518bn in ST Bills & FRNs, raising approx. $1bn in new money. Approx $14bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes this week – to settle on 31 Mar/next week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 16, 2026
The key events for the w/c 16 March 2026: Central Bank meetings: RBA, BoC, FOMC, BoJ, SNB, BoE, and ECB; US PPI; Aus Labour market; Canada CPI
Macro Recap: The Threat of a Persistent Conflict
Geopolitical Risks
The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary drivers of sentiment. The drift back up in oil prices through the end of last week suggests “conflict duration risk” remains a primary concern. If the conflict becomes more entrenched (and the Strait remains closed), the structural threat to global energy distribution and production may become harder for markets to “look through.” The current uncertainty over the duration of this conflict presents a difficult trade-off for key central bank meetings this week: the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the risk that elevated energy prices un-anchor inflation expectations, squeeze real incomes, and weigh on global growth.
U.S. Macro: A Slower Starting Block
Last week, the US GDP revision for Q4 suggested that growth in 2025 ended on a softer-than-expected note. However, growth was expected to slow in Q4 (despite the much higher tracking of growth ahead of official results), due to the effects of the US government shutdown. The “second estimate” of US GDP growth in Q4 was revised notably lower from 1.4% to 0.7% annualized. While most areas of expenditure contributed to the growth downgrade in Q4, the largest contributions were from personal spending and net exports. Overall in Q4, the largest contributors to the slowdown in growth in Q4 versus Q3 were from slower personal consumption expenditure growth, a contraction in net exports, and the decline in government expenditure.
US Q1 Momentum and the Consumer
Looking ahead, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q1 2026 growth remains at a resilient +2.7%. However, momentum cooled following last week’s data releases. While a negative Feb labor report weighed on personal spending estimates, this was partially offset by constructive data in housing starts and existing home sales. Personal income growth strengthened in Jan, but growth in real spending remained low. This suggests that softer personal consumption growth has so far persisted into the current quarter, just as higher energy prices threaten a further squeeze on real incomes.
The Inflation Baseline
Importantly for the outlook, the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation data provided a mixed baseline. Headline inflation edged lower to +2.8% over the year, but core PCE ticked up to 3.1% in Jan. Both headline and core PCE inflation are higher than a year ago – reflecting a stickier inflation profile leading into a period of potentially higher energy prices. While the firming trend in core goods and core services inflation remains a concern, the median and the trimmed mean, to a lesser extent, suggest that underlying price pressures likely did not broaden out this month. The more current CPI report for Feb came in as expected, remaining lower at +2.4% for headline and +2.5% for core, and the upcoming PPI for Feb this week will help gauge the read-through to the Feb PCE result.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank meetings: RBA, BoC, FOMC, BoJ, SNB, BoE, and ECB; US PPI; Aus Labour market; Canada CPI
The week ahead is defined by an unusual calendar alignment among central bank meetings, with at least seven key institutions scheduled to meet. These banks are facing elevated uncertainty over the duration of the current conflict and its subsequent impact on energy prices and inflation. Consequently, policymakers will need to reconcile these global pressures with their respective domestic policy nuances as they navigate yet another shock in this cycle of elevated uncertainty.
There will also be several key data releases, and markets are likely to remain firmly focused on the conflict and energy markets. Headline risks remain elevated in both directions.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Central Bank Meetings
Most central banks are expected to stay on hold in a “wait-and-see” approach for now, due to uncertainty over the duration and scope of the conflict and its resulting impact on energy prices and inflation. Many markets were expecting policy easing through the remainder of the year; however, policymakers will be cognizant of the shift in market pricing for the path of ST rates – in some cases, shifting toward the prospect of hikes this year, as the risk of a prolonged conflict could see higher energy prices derail inflation progress. For most central banks, it will be too early to tell. However, signalling their commitment to inflation mandates may be an important part of central bank decisions this week to keep inflation expectations anchored amid the uncertainty. We will continue to track the signalling by central banks on the outlook and for shifts in guidance.
RBA
- Not all central banks are expected to stay on hold. The RBA will be first cab off the rank this week, and markets are expecting the chance of another hike (back-to-back), taking the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.1%.
- Inflation was (already) the immediate policy risk at its meeting in Feb leading the RBA to hike rates by 25bps.
- Guidance had been suspended at the last meeting in Feb due to the uncertainty over the persistence of domestic inflation pressures.
BoC
- The BoC is expected to stay on hold. The Bank is expected to remain cautious over inflation pressures as the economy adjusts through this period of ‘structural change’.
- Similarly, given the uncertainty facing the Canadian economy over the impacts from tariffs and especially the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA, guidance had been suspended at the last meeting to provide the Bank with maximum optionality.
FOMC
- The FOMC is expected to stay on hold at this meeting. Market pricing for the path of rates has shifted notably in the last two weeks, now pricing in one cut through the next year.
- The FOMC faces a challenge over balancing its dual mandate – with PCE inflation remaining stickier, and concerns over the labor market rising after the Feb labor report.
- Fed communication will be in focus.
- Updated projections (SEP) will be released at this meeting, and the path of rates and the shift in the projections for growth, inflation, and unemployment will be important signalling.
- Changes to dissents will show how aligned members are – there were two last time.
- The press conference will enable Chair Powell to expand on how they are thinking about this latest shock, and he’ll have to walk a fine line about ‘looking through’ another inflation shock.
BoJ
- The BoJ is expected to stay on hold at this meeting.
- Bank communication will be important for the outlook for hikes – prior guidance was signalling an expectation for further hikes, and markets are still (potentially) expecting a hike in Apr.
BoE
- The BoE is now also expected to stay on hold, shifting from an expectation for a cut at this meeting.
- Recent data continues to reflect easing in growth and labour market conditions, while inflation, although still elevated, has continued to ease. At the last meeting, the BoE noted that “the risk of greater inflation persistence is now less pronounced”. At the same time, concerns emerged over slower inflation risks from weakening demand and a looser labour market.
- The decision to stay on hold, and any changes to the inflation outlook, will need to be reconciled with the prior guidance that “Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further”.
ECB
- The ECB is also expected to stay on hold at this meeting.
- Guidance is unlikely to be changed from the current ‘meeting by meeting’ approach – although the timeframe for the outlook is likely to be shortened, given the elevated uncertainty over energy prices, especially for Europe.
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical risks are expected to remain elevated as markets grapple with the uncertain trajectory and scope of the conflict.
Global Data
- US: headline PPI for Feb is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month in Feb (from +0.5% in Jan), and increase to +3% over the year (from +2.8% in Jan). Core PPI is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month in Feb (from +0.8% in Jan), but also accelerate to +3.7% in Feb (from +3.6% in Jan).
- Canada: CPI for Feb is expected to firm over the month for headline inflation (+0.7% in Feb from 0% in Jan) and remain little changed at around +2.3% over the year. The median inflation rate is expected to continue easing to +2.4% in Feb from +2.5% in Jan.
- Australia: Labour Market Survey for Feb is expected to remain fairly stable with +20k employment growth in Feb (up from +17k in Jan) while the unemployment rate ticks slightly higher to 4.2% (from 4.1% in Jan).
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $679bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $96bn in new money. Approx $26bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. The US Treasury will also auction the 10-year TIPS and 20-year Bond this week – both to settle at the end of the month.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 9, 2026
The key events for the w/c 9 March 2026: US CPI (Feb) & PCE Inflation (Jan), Geopolitical Risks
Macro Recap: From Escalation to Shock
Through last week, markets continued to recalibrate the assessment of the Middle East conflict as hopes for a swift de-escalation faded. The situation has transitioned into a broader and potentially more sustained engagement, shifting investor focus from temporary volatility toward the structural risks of a genuine energy price shock – driven by the threat of prolonged production curbs and disruptions to global distribution. With no clear “off-ramp” currently visible (though one remains a strategic possibility), concern is firming over the capacity of an emerging price-shock to de-anchor global inflation expectations, while dealing a blow to global growth.
The FOMC Dilemma: Balancing a Cooling Labor Market
An energy price shock has arrived at a complex moment for the U.S. economy. Last week’s payrolls report for Feb provided a stark counter to the stronger job creation reflected in the Jan report, adding to fears of a weakening labor market. In Feb, payroll jobs fell by -92k jobs, which was well below expectations for a +58k increase. The prior two months were also revised lower by -69k jobs; however, the stronger increase in Jan was mostly preserved at +126k after revisions (from +130k). Although the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.4%, the data casts doubt on whether the labor market is “stabilizing” or beginning to trend lower.
The FOMC could face a policy dilemma if there is no meaningful de-escalation in the conflict over the coming week. This dilemma centres on the trade-off between its dual mandate risks: assessing the degree to which it can ‘look through’ an energy-led inflation spike to support a cooling labor market or whether it needs to adopt a more hawkish stance to keep inflation expectations anchored. As of Monday morning, 9 Mar 2026, following a weekend of escalating tensions, markets are now considering the potential for a “stagflationary” mix of rising costs and falling employment. At its meeting next week, the Fed’s messaging will be important in signaling which side of its dual mandate carries the greater weight. This assessment will depend on how the conflict and markets evolve over the coming week.
Outlook for the week ahead: US CPI (Feb) & PCE Inflation (Jan)
Market reaction to the unfolding conflict with Iran will remain at the forefront this week. Let’s hope there is a meaningful de-escalation (or, better yet, steps towards a resolution) this week. Both positive and negative headline risks abound.
From a data perspective, US data will be in focus with a mix of inflation and key inputs for the growth backdrop. It’s also the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical risks remain elevated as markets grapple with the uncertain trajectory and broadening scope of the conflict.
US inflation data – CPI & PCE
There will be several inflation reports this week, continuing to catch up after the government shutdown last year and from the brief partial shutdown earlier this year. While the inflation reports may seem redundant in the face of >$100 oil, the reports will still be important for providing context ahead of the FOMC next week.
US CPI for Feb
- Headline CPI is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month in Feb (unchanged from +0.2% in Jan), while annual headline CPI is expected to increase to +2.5% in Feb, from +2.4% in Jan.
- Core CPI is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month in Feb, down from +0.3% in Jan. Core CPI is expected to increase by +2.5% over the year in Feb (also unchanged from +2.5% in Jan).
US PCE Price Index for Jan
- Headline PCE inflation for Jan is expected to increase by +0.3% in Jan (from +0.4% in Dec). Headline PCE inflation is expected to be unchanged at +2.9% over the year in Jan.
- Core PCE inflation for Jan is expected to remain firm at +0.4% over the month, while annual core PCE inflation is expected to increase to +3.1% in Jan.
US Growth Inputs
After last week’s ISM, retail sales, and labor market data, the US growth run-rate tracked by the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast slowed from +3% to +2.1% so far in Q1. This week, personal spending, income, durable goods orders, and housing data will help to update the broader growth backdrop.
- Growth in US personal spending is expected to be little changed in Jan from +0.4% in Dec.
- Personal income growth is expected to increase by +0.4% in Jan, up from +0.3% in Dec.
- Durable goods orders are expected to increase by +1.2% in Jan, after +1.4% in Dec.
- The second estimate for US GDP in Q4 2025 is expected to remain at +1.4% annualized.
- US building permits are expected to edge lower in Jan to a 1.41m annualized pace (from 1.455m in Dec).
- Housing starts are expected to slow to a 1.34m annualized pace in Jan, from 1.404m in Dec.
US labor market
There will be several data points this week to help round out the labor market view.
- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Feb is expected to fall from the 105.06 level recorded in Jan.
- The JOLTS report for Jan is expected to show a small rebound in Job Openings to 6.8m in Jan, from 6.5m in Dec.
Global Data
- Canada: Labor market survey for Feb ahead of its meeting next week, also on 18 Mar. Employment growth is expected to rebound from -24k to +9k; however, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 6.6% in Feb, from 6.5% in Jan.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $525bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $26bn in new money. Approx $15.4bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 2, 2026
The key events for the w/c 2 March 2026: US: payrolls Feb, retail sales, ISM surveys, & Fed Beige Book, Aus GDP Q4, S&P Global PMIs Feb
Macro Recap: Escalation
Events over the past week reinforced the economic and geopolitical crosscurrents facing markets right now. While we noted that broader uncertainty was being shaped by trade policy upheaval and structural technological change, the weekend’s developments have seen heightened geopolitical risk move to the forefront. Beyond the headlines in Washington and the Middle East, the economic backdrop remains caught between “signal and noise” while market sentiment continues to grapple with the structural implications of AI and the continued uncertainty over trade policy.
Geopolitical Risks Shift from Ultimatum to Action
With the transition to active engagement marking a new phase in regional tensions, focus has shifted to the immediate energy and security implications. Markets will need to assess the risk of a prolonged disruption against the possibility of Iran returning to talks with US President Trump (Bloomberg). US and Iranian envoys are expected to continue talks this week on the sidelines of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna – in other words, the diplomatic window remains open.
The US Domestic Outlook: Trade Uncertainty and the Economy
Amid the geopolitical tension, several factors are clouding the view of the US domestic outlook. Firstly, US trade policy remains in a state of flux following the successful challenge to emergency tariff powers. For now, the administration’s pivot to a temporary 15% blanket tariff has left businesses navigating an unsettled regulatory landscape.
This policy uncertainty adds a layer of complexity to the broader economic question currently facing the Fed: is the U.S. labor market beginning to stabilize, or was the strength in Jan just “noise”? Last week, Gov Waller was cautious over the Jan labor market ‘signal’ of a stronger labor market (given low hiring, weak JOLTS, narrow payroll breadth, likelihood of downward revisions to Jan data), highlighting the risk of ‘noisy’ data. Gov Waller dissented at the last FOMC meeting, preferring another rate cut – due to still elevated risks of a ‘substantial’ downturn in the labor market, combined with a ‘limited’ risk of higher inflation. His latest assessment still sees this balance. The US labor market data this week will be crucial to whether he’ll shift his outlook; if this week’s Feb report confirms the Jan labor market strength, then he could be more comfortable with a hold in March. However, he said that he could support further cuts even if the labor market improves, due to what he has described in the past as “good news” rate cuts, if inflation continues to make progress toward the 2% target.
Last week, US PPI data for Jan was firmer than expected, but remained below a year ago. While the headline monthly rate increased by more than expected to +0.5% in Jan (from +0.4%), the annual rate fell to +2.8% (from +3% in Dec). Food and energy producer prices were notably lower this month, helping to offset firmer core goods and services producer prices. Core PPI increased by +0.8% over the month, up from +0.6% in Dec. While annual core PPI continued its recent acceleration to +3.6% in Jan (from +3.3% in Dec), it remains below a year ago. Most important is how some of the PPI prices ‘map’ into the Fed-preferred PCE inflation measure. For now, the Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast for Jan (as of 27/2) remains somewhat subdued, with headline PCE at +0.2% over the month in Jan and core PCE rising by +0.27% over the month in Jan. Both estimates are below Dec and below (or just below) the monthly PCE rates in Jan a year ago.
Australia CPI: Headline vs. Underlying Divergence
Aus CPI continued to firm as headline CPI increased to +3.8% in Jan (from +3.7% in Dec), while the monthly pace also increased to +0.5% in Jan (from +0.2% in Dec). Both measures of core inflation (trimmed mean and median) edged higher over the year to +3.4% and +3.6%, respectively. However, the median and trimmed mean inflation rates are now below the headline (SA) rate. So while the headline inflation rate has increased over the last several months, underlying inflation, while still elevated, has not worsened to the same degree, suggesting that the increase in the headline rate has likely been influenced by outlier effects rather than a further broadening of inflation pressures. However, inflation through the centre of the distribution remains persistent. Over the week, market expectations for further rate hikes remained little changed.
Outlook for the week ahead
While markets will continue to assess the unfolding conflict in Iran, it will be a busy week of important US data.
The key focus this week is US labor market data including non-farm payroll growth for Feb. This will be an important release to assess whether the Jan strength was a genuine “signal” of a labor market on firmer footing or merely statistical noise.
Beyond the labor market, several key indicators will provide an early read on Q1 momentum: the Feb ISM surveys, the Jan retail sales report, and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book ahead of its meeting in the middle of this month.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Geopolitical Risks
- Iran: Now that military action has commenced, uncertainty over the outlook and scope of this conflict remains elevated. Early reporting indicated that US President Trump was “open to dropping sanctions on Iran if its new leader was “pragmatic”. Iran also made a fresh push to resume talks with the US, the Wall Street Journal reported” (source: Bloomberg).
US Labor Market Data – Feb
The broad suite of US labor market data will be released this week, providing the Fed with a comprehensive update on labor market conditions.
- Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 58k in Feb, a notable step down from +130k in Jan, but still above the weaker trajectory through to the end of 2025. The direction of revisions to the Jan growth will also be important.
- Early in the week, the ADP employment change is expected to increase by +49k, up from +22k in Jan.
- The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.3%, while the participation rate is also expected to be little changed.
- Average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.3 hours/week.
- Average weekly earnings are expected to slow to +0.3% over the month (from +0.4% in Jan).
- The Challenger Job Cut Announcements survey will also remain in focus after the notable increase in Jan to 108k announcements, while hiring announcements had remained subdued.
- The JOLTS report for Jan is due out on 13 Mar 2026.
- The non-farm productivity for Q4 is expected to increase by +1.7% in Q4, down from +4.9% in Q3. Unit labor costs for Q4 are expected to increase by +2.1% after falling by 1.9% in Q3.
- Initial claims are expected to remain lower at 215k in the wk ended 28 Feb (from 212k in the prior week).
US growth momentum for Q1
The employment, ISM, and retail trade data will provide an early update for the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast for Q1. The current nowcast (based on limited data) shows the US GDP growth run rate at +3%.
- The ISM PMIs for Feb are expected to move somewhat lower for manufacturing to 51.7, while the ISM services PMI is expected to be little changed at 53.5.
- Retail sales for Jan are expected to fall by -0.3% after a flat result in Dec. The retail control measure, which feeds into the GDP calculation, will be important, and fell marginally in Dec by -0.1%.
Fed speeches & data
- The latest Fed Beige Book will be released this week and will provide an anecdotal update on changes in activity over the last six weeks. This is usually an important input into the FOMC meeting. Fed speeches will be limited this week.
Global Data
- Australia: Q4 GDP is expected to increase by +0.7%, up from +0.4% in Q3. Annual growth is expected to be unchanged at +2.1%.
- Euro area CPI (prelim) for Feb is expected to be unchanged at +1.7% for headline CPI and +2.2% for core CPI.
- The full suite of S&P Global PMIs for Feb will be released through the early part of the week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
