by Kim | Nov 21, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC & ECB Minutes, Flash PMIs Nov, RBNZ policy decision, US Thanksgiving Holiday
Recap from last week
US Fed speeches hinted at the possibility to slow the pace of policy tightening from the Dec meeting. Markets are pricing a step down to +50bps. But as noted at the last FOMC meeting, it is the level of rates that is important now. Bullard sees the FFR higher, 5-5.25% at a minimum to get into the restrictive zone. Market probabilities are currently pricing up to that level and peaking in mid-2023. The US 2-10yr spread reached a YTD low of -0.69, as the resulting growth expectations fell.
So far, US consumer spending remains robust. Retail sales growth was higher than expected in Oct and spending was stronger across most categories. High-frequency initial claims also remain low. But there was further weakness in regional manufacturing surveys. Weaker/declining new orders became more widespread in Nov. Output growth stayed positive as firms worked through backlogs and supply chains adjusted. US housing market conditions and sales deteriorated further as credit tightens and mortgage rates stay elevated.
Inflation outside of the US showed little sign of easing in Oct. Euro area inflation was confirmed at +10.6% with price growth accelerating across most categories. Inflation in the UK came in higher than expected at +11.1% and core was also up to +6.5%. Inflation in Canada stalled with the headline rate remaining at +6.9%. Japanese inflation came in higher than expected and core ex-fresh food accelerated to +3.6% (from +3% in Sep). The BoJ has previously noted that the weakening Yen has been a driver of higher import costs for commodities, thereby driving up consumer inflation. This is not the kind of inflation the BoJ is looking for. Japanese GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q3 as personal consumption growth slowed and net exports declined.
The RBA minutes covered the policy debate and included details of the review of forward guidance. The 25bps increase was favoured given how fast the RBA had already hiked and the uncertainty over how household spending would react to the rapid tightening of conditions. Wage growth came in higher than expected in Q3 at +3.1% over the year with a notable acceleration in private sector wages to +3.4% (also linked to annual wage reviews). The labour market tightened further in Oct as employment increased by more than expected and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.4%. With inflation remaining high, this is likely supportive of further tightening.
Outlook for the week ahead
It’s a short week for the US Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
FOMC minutes will be released. This will likely include the debate for taking into account the ‘cumulative tightening of monetary policy’ (slowing the pace) amid significant uncertainty around the level of interest rates required for what might be deemed as ‘sufficiently restrictive’. Expecting the minutes to reinforce that there is “still some ways to go” on rates.
The lead-up to the next FOMC meeting could be interesting as markets digest Fed signaling and important data for rates just prior to the next FOMC meeting. Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at a Brookings event on Wed 30 Nov – the week before the blackout week for the 13-14 Dec FOMC meeting. Signaling from Chair Powell on the pace of hikes is likely at this event. The Brookings speech will be two days before the Nov non-farm payrolls (the last day before the blackout period), while the important Nov CPI will be released on 13 Dec, the day before the Dec FOMC announcement.
The flash PMIs will be released this week for Nov. Expectations are for continued moderate contraction in the Eurozone, UK, and US (services). Momentum is expected to slow in Aus and be little changed in Japan.
The RBNZ will meet this week on policy. The RBNZ stepped up the pace of hikes to 50bps back in Apr 2022 and there is an expectation that it may step up the pace to a +75bps increase this week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $314bn in ST Bills, Cash Management Bills, and FRNs raising approx. $78bn in new money.
The US Treasury will also auction the 2yr, 5yr, and 7yr Notes this week. These will settle on 30 Nov.
Approx $16bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Nov 14, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US retail sales, US Fed speeches, CPI for Oct; Japan, UK, Canada, and the Euro area, China data, G20
Recap from last week
US CPI growth slowed more than expected in Oct increasing expectations that the FOMC will slow the pace of hikes and pause tightening earlier. Fed speeches supported a likely shift to a slower pace of hikes, but emphasized that “a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy” (Lorie Logan – Dallas Fed President). By the end of the week, the target rate probability for the Dec Fed meeting was pricing a +50bps increase, from an even split between 50 and 75bps increase. On Sunday, Governor Waller said that “It’s really not so much about the pace anymore, it’s where we’re going (to) end up. And where we end is going to be driven solely by what happens with inflation.” (Source: Bloomberg).
Headline US CPI slowed from +8.2% in Sep to +7.7% in Oct. The areas of disinflation suggest that the commodity price and demand shocks from the pandemic and the Ukraine invasion appear to be easing. Monthly food price growth has slowed further, but this is not yet visible in the annual change. Energy price growth has eased but remains volatile.
Core CPI slowed from +6.6% in Sep to +6.3% in Oct. Slower core CPI was mostly the result of a further fall in used car prices (falling for the fourth month and up only +2% on a year ago) – with demand across autos (and durables) likely impacted by higher rates and some tightening of lending standards. This was partly offset by faster growth in core services led by shelter price growth (no sign of rolling over yet). Other measures of underlying CPI remained elevated while the monthly trend may be rolling over. Sticky prices stalled at the current peak of +6.5%.
The bigger picture is that slowing CPI is yet to coincide with a weaker labour market or slower wage growth. So while the impact of price and demand shocks might be starting to fade, the inflation story may not be over. The Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker for Oct recorded a further acceleration in wages (overall measures) from +6.3% in Sep to +6.5% in Oct, and wage growth acceleration was recorded across most indicators. US consumer sentiment indicators weakened at the start of Nov as consumer inflation expectations edged higher again. This likely means the Fed stays the course on tightening for now. Early this week, Fed Governor Waller noted that “So it’s good, finally, that we saw some evidence of inflation starting to come down, but I just cannot stress [enough] this is one data point. We’re going to need to see a continued run of this kind of behaviour and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here.”
Outlook for the week ahead
US data and Fed speeches will be prominent. US retail sales for Oct are expected to increase by +0.9%. Housing data is expected to remain weak with existing home sales expected to slow to 4.4m (SAAR basis). A substantial number of FOMC members will speak this week, including Vice Chair Brainard.
More inflation data is due this week. The UK CPI for Oct is expected to accelerate to +10.6% (also UK labour market data and the budget release on 17 Nov). Canada CPI is expected to increase to +7% in Oct. Japanese CPI is expected to slow to +2.7%, but ex-fresh food to increase to +3%. Euro area final CPI for Oct is expected to be +10.7%.
The RBA minutes will be released. Aus data is expected to show that the labour market remains robust amid policy tightening. The Aus Q3 wage price index is expected to increase by +3% year on year, up from +2.6%. Aus employment is expected to increase by +15k, the participation rate to remain at 66.6%, and the unemployment rate to remain at a low 3.5%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $351bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds raising approx. $65bn in new money.
The US Treasury will also auction the 20-year Bond and 10-year TIPS this week. These will settle on 30 Nov.
Approx $93bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week. Of this, approx. $40.4bn in Notes and Bonds will mature and roll-off the Fed balance sheet (as a part of the $60bn cap). The remaining $52.7bn of ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds that will mature this week will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Nov 7, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US CPI and the US midterm election
Recap from last week
Last week the FOMC opened the door to changing the pace of rate hikes. This allows the FOMC to consider the “cumulative tightening of monetary policy” and its effects. The decision gives the FOMC the optionality to adjust the size of the next hike which will be decided “on the totality of incoming data”. This decision comes against the backdrop of higher-than-expected inflation and significant uncertainty around the path of rates. But there is no reason to pivot policy right now – and Chair Powell noted that we “still have some ways to go” on rates and that “the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected”. By the end of the week though, and after the payrolls beat on Friday, the somewhat steeper yield curve (higher long rates) may be indicating that it’s too early to be slowing. This will be something to watch. This also sets the scene for the important US CPI report this week – and inflation is expected to ease only slightly from +8.2% in Sep to +8% in Oct, with an acceleration in monthly CPI expected from +0.4% in Sep to +0.7% in Oct.
US labour market momentum was still robust. Non-farm payrolls for Oct beat expectations at +261k and Sep was revised higher to +315k. Payroll growth is slowing but is well ahead of the pre-pandemic trend. The household survey had some divergence as monthly employment declined and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (from 3.5% in Sep). JOLTS for Sep showed hires may have peaked, but are still elevated. Layoffs & discharges are at near-series lows. Openings rebounded after the fall last month. Quits are also within 10% of the series high but did fall further this month. This softening suggests an increasing reluctance to shift jobs.
Last week, the BoE also increased rates by a further 75bps. The statement highlighted the considerable uncertainty around inflation, the path of rates, and growth. Inflation stands at 10.1% and is expected to peak at 11%. Guidance was that further increases in the Bank rate may be needed for a sustainable return of inflation to target “albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets”. The press conference placed more emphasis on the assertion that the Bank Rate will need to go up by less than what markets are currently pricing.
The RBA increased the cash rate target by 25bps as expected. Inflation is now expected to peak higher at +8% (from +7.8%). The RBA noted that it had “increased rates materially since May to help return inflation to target”. There remains high uncertainty around how households will respond to higher mortgage rates. Further increases in rates are expected and the timing and size are to be determined by incoming data.
Global PMI momentum continued to slow into Oct. Both the global manufacturing and services PMIs slipped into slight contraction. G7 manufacturing was weaker, especially in Europe, the UK, and Canada. There was a notable slowdown in US and ASEAN manufacturing (both still expanding). The slowdown in services momentum was also noted this month – especially in the US, UK, Eurozone, China, and Aus. Japan was the only G7 economy where both manufacturing and service activity was expanding.
Outlook for the week ahead
The US CPI for Oct and the US midterm election are the main focus this week. US CPI is expected to ease only slightly from +8.2% in Sep to +8% in Oct, with an acceleration in monthly CPI expected from +0.4% in Sep to +0.7% in Oct.
There will also be a number of US Fed (and other CB) speakers– and this may start to add to headline risk with speeches fluctuating between dovish and hawkish sentiment ahead of the next Fed meeting.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $255bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $34bn in new money.
The US Treasury will also auction the 30yr Bond and the 10yr and 3yr Notes this week. These will settle on 15 Nov.
Approx $16.5bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested/rolled over.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 31, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC, BoE, & RBA policy decisions, US non-farm payrolls
Recap from last week
Despite high and persistent inflation, more CBs may be signaling an intention to slow the pace of policy tightening after front-loading hikes. The most important signal on this front may come from the FOMC this week.
Last week, the BoC increased rates by 50bps (some were expecting 75bps). Governor Macklem noted that the tightening phase will draw to a close – the bank is getting closer, but not there yet. The BoC expects that the policy rate will still need to increase further.
The ECB raised rates by 75bps. The ECB has likely reached the end of its frontloading transition and is moving towards a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach. Rates are still expected to increase further. Inflation in the Euro area is yet to peak, and growth concerns are elevated. Euro area prelim CPI in Oct is expected to increase again, reaching +10.2%.
The BoJ kept policy unchanged and doubled down on its dovish rhetoric; “We don’t plan to raise interest rates or head for an exit (from easy policy) any time soon. But if achievement of 2% inflation comes into sight, the board will of course debate an exit policy” (source: Reuters). Inflation forecasts were revised higher, but Governor Kuroda noted that the bank is looking for wage increases to accompany higher inflation.
Inflation is still broadly persistent. The US PCE inflation rate was higher than expected but stalled at +6.2%. European country-level CPI (prelim Oct) was higher than expected and continued to accelerate in Germany (+10.4%), Italy (+11.9%), and France (+7.1%). Aus CPI for Q3 was also higher than expected and accelerated to +7.3%. Aus core CPI similarly accelerated to +6.1% in Q3 from +4.9% in Q2.
Growth and output momentum continued to weaken. Global prelim PMIs for Oct show momentum is slowing, if not contracting. Only Aus and Japan manufacturing expanded in Oct. The US manufacturing expansion slowed to neutral. Services weakened further – except in Japan.
Outlook for the week ahead
The focus will be on the FOMC this week. While a 75bps increase is expected, the FOMC is also expected to signal whether/when it will slow the pace of policy tightening. If it does, then balanced communication will be crucial; that fighting inflation still is a priority despite reducing the size of rate hikes.
An important US barometer will come out after the FOMC this week; US non-farm payrolls for Oct are expected to increase by +200k (after +263k last month). Participation is expected to remain at 62.3% and the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 3.6%. Job openings for Sep are expected to slow further to 10m after a notable fall in Aug. The US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to show a slowdown in growth momentum.
The BoE is expected to increase its policy rate by 75bps this week after unprecedented political and market turmoil. Most fiscal measures have now been reversed, so the BoE outlook for tightening, inflation, and growth will be important.
The RBA is expected to increase its policy rate by 25bps – after having already reduced the size of hikes last month.
The full suite of global PMIs will be released this week for Oct.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $466bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, and FRNs raising approx. $42bn in new money.
QT for Oct; Approx. $32bn in Notes, Bonds, & FRNs will be redeemed/roll off the balance sheet on 31 Oct.
Approx $26bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested/rolled over.
The next quarterly Treasury financing update will be on 2 Nov 2022.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 24, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – BoC, ECB, and BoJ policy decisions, Inflation (US PCE inflation Sep, prelim Euro-area CPIs Oct, Aus CPI Q3), prelim PMIs for Oct, US GDP Q3
Recap from last week
While the FOMC looks set to raise rates by 75bps again next week, the focus shifted to the timing of when the Fed will start to slow the pace/size of rate hikes. The likelihood of changing to smaller hikes “at some point” has been well-telegraphed in the FOMC minutes. Two articles came out last week. The NYT article suggested that any “serious discussion” on smaller hikes would be delayed by at least a month as inflation remained high and the labour market tight. “The conversation about whether to scale back is now more likely to happen in December”. (Source: NYT Jeanna Smialek). The WSJ article received more traction as a signal from the Fed. The article suggested that the Fed may start to prepare markets for smaller hikes after the Nov meeting and “are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December”. (Source: WSJ Nick Timiraos). Both articles highlight how smaller hikes could conflict with the Fed’s goal of tightening monetary policy. The Fed’s problem will be whether it can slow the pace/size of rate increases while still appearing to be hawkish, and not undo the work it has done to tighten financial conditions.
We are now in the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
The RBA minutes noted that the Board was also worried about market reactions to slowing the pace of hikes. Aus inflation is expected to peak at over 7% (currently 6.1%). The pace of hikes was slowed to assess the impact on households amid high mortgage debt and variable mortgage rates; “The full effects of higher interest rates were yet to be felt in mortgage payments and the increases in the cash rate were close to the interest rate buffer applied when many current borrowers took out their loans” (source: RBA). The RBA is concerned with the cash rate at 2.6% – while futures markets currently expect the cash rate to peak higher at around 4% late next year (unless inflation eases faster). Aus labour market data last week was weaker than expected as employment growth slowed. The CPI release this week will be important leading up to the RBA meeting next week. Aus CPI is expected to increase to +6.9% in Q3. The Aus government budget will be released this week.
Outlook for the week ahead
Central bank policy decisions this week; The BoC is expected to increase by 50bps to 3.75% as inflation data last week remained elevated at +6.9% for Sep.
The ECB is expected to increase rates by 75bps to 1.5%. last week Euro area CPI for Sep was confirmed at +9.9% in Sep from +9.1% in Aug. This week, the prelim CPIs for Oct will be released for Germany, Italy, France, and Spain.
The BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged. The policy rate differential will keep pressure on the currency amid unconfirmed interventions. Japanese headline CPI remained at +3% in Sep while core CPI ex fresh food accelerated to +3% and has been above +2% now for six months. CPI growth ex-energy and fresh food is accelerating and reached +1.8% in Sep – still below the BoJ +2% threshold.
US PCE inflation for Sep expected to ease to +5.8% from +6.2% in Aug. Core PCE is expected to increase to +5.2% from +4.9% in Aug. The US employment cost index for Q3 is expected to remain elevated at +1.3% (QoQ). US GDP growth in Q3 is expected to increase to +2.1% (SAAR basis) from -0.6%. The contribution of domestic versus external demand will be important.
Prelim global PMIs for Oct will provide insight into changes in growth momentum amid high inflation and rising rates.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $255bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $26bn in new money.
The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-yr Notes and 2-year FRN – to settle on 31 Oct.
QT; approx. $19.4bn of ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week. Of this total, approx. $3.2bn in ST Bills will be redeemed/roll-off the balance sheet and approx. $16.2bn in ST Bills will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 17, 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US earnings, housing and production data, inflation for the UK, Canada, NZ, Eurozone, and Japan, RBA minutes
Recap from last week
US CPI growth was higher than expected adding to the uncertainty around the path of inflation and keeping pressure on the FOMC to hike.
The headline inflation rate has moderated from a peak of +9% in Jun to +8.2% in Sep. But the deceleration stalled between Aug and Sep. This month, falling gasoline and used/new car prices (and core commodity prices generally) was offset by an acceleration in core services price growth (broad). Annual food price growth is still extremely elevated but did not accelerate between Aug and Sep. Core CPI growth has continued to accelerate across most measures. Even excluding the well-known categories adding to/detracting from inflation – food, energy, shelter, and used cars, shows that price growth continued to accelerate in the remaining categories. This measure of core CPI increased to a new cycle high of +6.7% in Sep versus +6.3% in Aug. US consumer inflation expectations increased in the prelim University of Michigan sentiment report for Oct (after falling for several months) – due to a shift in gasoline price expectations. It will concern the FOMC to see inflation expectations increase again.
US nominal retail sales were flat at a total level, or -0.4% in real terms for the month. Initial claims (wk of 7 Oct) increased again to +228k. One third of the increase in the NSA claims was recorded in Florida (likely due to Hurricane Ian), but some of the other bigger states also recorded an uptick. A further increase in initial claims is expected this week to +235k.
The FOMC minutes maintained a hawkish stance. The 75bps increase at that meeting was seen as “another step towards sufficiently restrictive”. Since the last meeting though, concerns over financial stability risks have increased. Some FOMC members have highlighted the two-sided risks from the rapid tightening of global financial conditions. The minutes also note that “…it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation”.
While US inflation has eased, it is not yet on a clear downward trajectory, and there are both upside and downside risks. The pace of further tightening will continue to be data dependant. After the stronger-than-expected CPI last week, the target FFR probability for Nov indicates another +75bps hike is likely.
Outlook for the week ahead
US Q3 earnings will continue to be in focus. Data will focus on housing and output. US existing home sales are expected to slow to 4.69m (SAAR) in Sep from 4.8m in Aug. Industrial production is expected to increase by +0.1% in Sep (from 0% in Aug). The first of the regional manufacturing surveys for Oct will be released.
Global inflation data will be in focus; UK CPI (expecting ↑ +10%), Canada (↓ +6.8%), NZ (↓ +6.6%), and Japan (↑ +3.1%). The final Eurozone CPI result for Sep will be released and is expected to increase by +10%.
China data for Sep and Q3 GDP is expected to rebound amid rolling covid lockdowns.
The RBA minutes will be released and of interest will be the decision to shift to a slower pace of rate hikes. The market reaction has been to push out the peak in the cash rate later into 2023 (now Nov rather than Jul), while the peak rate has fluctuated with global market volatility (now back up to 4%). The Aus labour market survey for Sep will be released and employment is expected to increase by +25k, the participation rate to remain at 66.6%, and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $335bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $80bn in new money.
The US Treasury will also auction the 5-year TIPS and 20-year Bond – to settle on 31 Oct.
QT; approx. $19.78bn of ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week. Of this total, approx. $3.3bn in ST Bills will be redeemed/roll-off the balance sheet and approx. $16.5bn in ST Bills will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
