by Kim | Aug 12, 2024
Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, & retail sales, UK CPI, RBNZ meeting, Aus labour market, GDP; Eurozone, UK, & Japan
Recap from last week
The week began with heightened fears of a slowdown in US growth amid significant market turbulence. Despite a light week for major data releases, the available data still managed to ease growth concerns.
The US ISM services PMI did rebound in Jul, and the improvement was enough to calm the narrative that the US economy was suddenly slowing. The rebound in Jul was moderate at 51.4 with several bright spots including more widespread growth in new orders, output, and employment.
US initial claims data also managed to push back on concerns over US labor market softness. Initial claims came in lower than expected at +233k – and back in line with the 12-week average.
Growth in mortgage applications rebounded more notably (+6.9% over the week) as mortgage rates continued to fall. The rebound in applications was led by refinance applications for now, however, it will be important to track the effect of lower rates on a recovery in housing activity.
The latest US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey also hinted that lending standards may not have tightened to the same degree in Q2 compared to Q1;
While banks, on balance, reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in the second quarter, the net shares of banks that reported having tightened lending standards are lower than in the first quarter across almost all loan categories. Source: SLOOS Q2
A speech by BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida helped to calm markets after the BoJ had increased its policy rates and guided further possible rate increases. This was an important speech for signaling on the near-term path of Japanese rates given the volatility in markets, especially in Japan. He summed up by distinguishing the current path of the BoJ and other central banks;
“…in contrast to the process of policy interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, Japan’s economy is not in a situation where the Bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace. Therefore, the Bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable.” Source: Speech to Local leaders in Hakodate, 7 Aug 2024
The RBA kept policy settings unchanged as expected. The Board noted the increased risk that inflation in Aus will take too long to return to target. The latest CPI data “demonstrated that inflation is proving persistent” and growth expectations were revised higher. In a speech later in the week, Governor Bullock confirmed that the Board’s expectations for when inflation will come back to target have been pushed out. While the Board did discuss a rate hike at this meeting, the decision to stay on hold aligned more strongly with its dual mandate objectives as it “steers a narrow path” between keeping employment growing and inflation slowing”.
S&P Global PMIs indicated that the current expansion slowed at the start of Q3. This was led by a slowdown in global manufacturing activity as the global manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction and the manufacturing new orders index fell for the first time in six months. This was only partly offset by services output which resumed expanding at a faster pace in Jul, after a brief pause in Jun.
Outlook for the week ahead
The focus this week will likely remain on US inflation and the US growth narrative ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium next week.
The FOMC recently noted that inflation readings don’t need to be ‘better’, and that it just wants more readings around this level to increase its confidence that inflation is slowing. US headline CPI for Jul is expected to be unchanged at +3% over the year, from +3% in Jun. Over the month, inflation is expected to increase by +0.2%, up from -0.1% in Jun. Core CPI is expected to ease to +3.2% over the year, down from +3.3% in Jun. Over the month core CPI is expected to increase by +0.2%, up from +0.1% in Jun.
This week the US PPI report for Jul will be released before the CPI report. The US headline PPI for Jul is expected to be little changed at +2.6% versus +2.6% in Jun. Over the month, PPI is expected to increase by +0.2% – the same pace as Jun. Core PPI is expected to increase by +3% over the year in Jul, while monthly core PPI is expected to slow to +0.2% in Jul from +0.4% in Jun.
The broader US growth context will be in focus this week with the first comprehensive update on growth at the start of Q3 across consumption, output, and housing activity in Jul. US retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4% in Jul, after a 0% change in Jun. Despite the flat growth of headline retail sales in Jun, the increase in the retail control group sales (which feeds into GDP consumption) was notably stronger at +0.9%. This measure is expected to ease in Jul.
US industrial production is expected to ease in Jul. Output is expected to fall by -0.2%, slowing from +0.6% in Jun. This would be broadly in line with weaker output readings across US manufacturing PMIs. The first US regional manufacturing surveys for Aug will provide a guide on momentum through Q3.
The first round of housing data for Jul will be released. Given the falls in mortgage rates, it will be important to gauge the shift in the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index this week – which is expected to be unchanged at 42. New housing permits for Jul are still expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.43m, from 1.454m in Jun. New housing starts are also expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.34m in Jul from 1.353m in Jun.
Initial claims are expected to stay low at +232k for the prior week.
The calendar of Fed speeches will be light this week. A more substantial round of signaling on the path of US rates is expected next week at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Central Banking (22-24 Aug).
The RBNZ is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, but this could be another finely balanced decision. Last time, the RBNZ noted that policy restraint will be tempered over time as inflation eases further. In Q2, measures of domestically led inflation improved but remained elevated at +5.4%. The Q2 employment report last week could concern policymakers – employment growth was better than expected, but the unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.6% (just below the expectation of a 4.7% unemployment rate).
Finally, the Aus labour market data for Jul will be important for the RBA. The net change in employment is expected to slow to +20k, the participation rate is expected to be unchanged at 66.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.1%. The Wage Price Index for Q2 will also be released and is expected to increase slightly over the quarter by +0.9%, up from +0.8% in Q1.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $591bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $55bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $38bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $15bn in Notes & Bonds will be redeemed and roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Aug 5, 2024
Key events this week – US ISM services PMI, RBA monetary policy meeting
Recap from last week
The FOMC kept policy settings unchanged, however, noted that it is getting closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce the policy rate.
“…that the broad sense of the Committee is that we’re getting closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but that we’re not quite at that point yet.” US Fed Chair Powell Q&A
The Fed Chair went on to outline his test for a rate cut, which, if met, could see a cut on the table as soon as the next meeting in Sept.
The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market.
The policy decision and statement shifted back to reflect an equal balance between the dual mandate goals. This step mirrored the FOMC noting that risks around the mandates have come back into balance. The last couple of readings on inflation have added to confidence and the Fed is looking for more good data. The Fed Chair noted that the “quality” of this year’s disinflation was higher but emphasized that it is based on one quarter of data. More data is needed to be confident that the path to 2% inflation is solid. However, confidence is growing across a broader range of measures.
On the labor market, the Fed Chair noted that “what the data broadly show in the labor market is an ongoing, gradual normalization of labor market conditions”.
It’s a rough balance, but it does feel like, again, the labor market feels like it’s in a place where it’s just a process of ongoing normalization, 4.1 percent unemployment is still historically low and we’ll just have to see what the data show us. US Fed Chair Powell Q&A
Would the FOMC see the weaker-than-expected jobs report for July as still within the realm of “ongoing normalization”, or as an “unexpected weakening” in conditions? Non-farm payroll growth of +114k in Jul was notably slower than the average pace for the first half of this year. This report went against the recent trend of payroll reports that have been ‘better than expected’ when released, only to be revised lower in subsequent months. There has been a cumulative -279k in payroll revisions since Jan 2024. The question is whether the weaker Jul result will also be revised lower.
Labor demand continued to cool, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.25% as growth in the labor supply increased. Temporary layoffs contributed to this rise in unemployment (possibly reversing next month), while firms have not moved to significant job shedding, as shown by the equal series low JOLTS layoff rate in Jun. The employment-to-population ratio also increased to a post-pandemic high of 80.9% among the core working-age group in Jul, surpassing the pre-pandemic level. Despite some positive labor statistics, the unemployment rate exceeding the Fed’s year-end projection of 4.1% signals a risk of a broader negative feedback loop developing if labor demand continues to slow.
At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool has markets pricing in a 50bps rate cut in Sep.
The Bank of Japan took further steps towards normalizing its policy settings. The BoJ increased its policy rate to ‘around 0.25%’ in a 7-2 majority decision. Guidance indicated that further increases in the policy rate could be expected if the outlook presented in the July Outlook Report was to be realized. The Board also decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs by about 400bn yen each calendar quarter in principle – see details here.
The Bank of England also cut rates for the first time in this part of the cycle in a finely balanced 5-4 decision. The BoE noted that it was appropriate to begin the process of reducing policy restrictiveness as risks of persistent inflation have moderated, and the impact of external shocks has abated.
Outlook for the week ahead
There will be relatively few notable data releases this week.
The US ISM services PMI will be released this week. This is expected to rebound from a slight contraction in Jun of 48.8 to a modest expansion of 51 in Jul. Last week, the ISM manufacturing PMI for Jul came in worse than expected at 46.8 indicating a deterioration in manufacturing conditions. The more notable weakness in the ISM manufacturing employment index was not confirmed by the payroll data.
We will continue to watch the US initial claims data. Claims are expected to stay around +250k for last week.
The US Federal Reserve’s Q2 Senior Loan Officer survey will be released this week. At this stage, there are no Fed speeches scheduled on the US Federal Reserve calendar. However, with some turbulence in the markets at the time of writing, this could change.
The RBA will meet this week and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. The RBA cash rate of 4.35% remains well below the policy rate of other key central banks. The Q2 inflation report provided little evidence supporting the case for the RBA to hike rates, however, underlying inflation remained elevated, and this likely supports the case to stay on hold. Core trimmed mean inflation eased only slightly from +3.95% in Q1 to +3.9% in Q2. RBA Governor Bullock will also speak later in the week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $502bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $47bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 3-year and 10-year Notes and the 30-year Bond this week – and will settle next week.
QT this week: Approx $16bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Jul 29, 2024
Key events this week – FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, US non-farm payrolls and labor market update, Aus and Euro area CPI
Recap from last week
US inflation and growth data were consistent with keeping the “soft landing” scenario in view for the FOMC as it considers the case to start cutting rates. The June US PCE inflation result likely bolstered the FOMC’s confidence that inflation is still moving in the right direction. Recent 1-month and 3-month annualized rates have slowed below the 6-month and annual rates, indicating a decelerating trend. While core PCE inflation remained unchanged at +2.6% in June, it was still among the lowest readings since the 2022 inflation peak and below the FOMC’s median projection for the year. The Fed will focus on services inflation, which, despite remaining high at +3.9%, showed improvement with a further slowing in persistent housing inflation.
The easing in inflation was supported by stronger-than-expected US growth over Q2. US GDP grew at an annualized +2.8% in Q2 (vs. +2% expected), up from +1.4% in Q1, driven by increased private inventories (mainly retail autos), higher personal consumption, and government spending. The FOMC has recently focused on the ‘final sales to domestic purchasers’ measure of demand which excludes volatile impacts of inventories and trade. On this measure, growth accelerated from +2.4% annualized in Q1 to +2.7% in Q2 – highlighting continued robust domestic demand. The growth results will support the FOMC as it likely waits for further confidence on the path of US inflation.
The BoC cut rates for the second time in a row. The BoC noted it was carefully assessing what it sees as the ‘opposing forces of inflation’. At the press conference, BoC Governor Macklem continued to guide that if inflation keeps easing in line with forecasts, then it would be reasonable to expect further cuts in the policy rate.
The prelim PMIs for Jul were mixed. Manufacturing activity weakened across most markets in Jul – except in the UK where manufacturing activity kept expanding at a modest pace. The expansion in services activity for Jul was led by a sharp rebound in Japan, a moderating expansion in the Eurozone, and a continued strong expansion in the US.
Outlook for the week ahead
It’s a big week of central bank meetings, a broad update on the US labor market for Jul, and important inflation data for Aus and the Euro Area.
The focus will be on the FOMC this week and it is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. The FOMC is likely to continue to reiterate that its dual mandate objectives are now more in balance. It will be important to see how the FOMC is characterizing the progress on inflation – maybe noting that it is ‘getting closer to confident’. It’s unclear how much signaling for rate cuts the FOMC will provide at this meeting – possibly opting to keep its data-dependent focus given the bumpy path of inflation over the last year. Markets are currently pricing the start of the rate-cutting cycle to begin in Sept, and this would give the FOMC several more inflation reports to provide the confidence that inflation is sustainably moving to 2%. The Sept meeting for a rate cut would coincide with updated projections to guide the path of the rate-cutting cycle. Between now and Sept, the FOMC will have the opportunity to provide signaling at the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of Aug.
The BoE will meet this week. Markets are expecting the first rate cut, but it could be a finely balanced decision. There wasn’t much further progress on inflation in Jun which may keep the BoE concerned. Core CPI remained elevated at +3.5% in Jun – the same rate as in May. Services inflation remained unchanged and elevated at +5.7%.
The BoJ will meet this week and while it’s not expected to raise rates, the decision could also be finely balanced. The BoJ preferred measure of core inflation (ex-fresh food) has been firming over the first half of 2024 and continued to increase to +2.6% in Jun from +2.5% in May – above the BoJ target of +2% inflation. The BoJ is expected to outline its roadmap for cutting bond purchases and will release its latest economic and inflation forecasts.
US data this week will focus on a broad update of the labor market. US non-farm payrolls are expected to slow to +177k in Jul, from +206k in Jun. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.1%. Job openings are expected to ease from the May 8.14m result. The Q2 employment cost index is expected to ease to +1% from +1.2% in Q1.
The US ISM manufacturing survey is expected to be little changed in Jul with activity contracting slightly at 48.8. US Factory orders for Jun are expected to firm from -0.5% in May to +0.5% in Jun.
The Aus Q2 CPI report will be released. This will be an important update for the RBA, which meets next week. Recent monthly CPI reports have shown firmer inflation. At the last RBA meeting, the upside risks to inflation were highlighted and Governor Bullock noted that the June quarter CPI report will offer a more comprehensive view of the current inflation dynamic. Headline CPI is expected to stay at +1% over the quarter and increase to +3.8% over the year (from +3.6% in Q1). The trimmed mean inflation rate is expected to ease slightly to +0.9% in Q2, but remain unchanged at +4% over the year.
The Euro Area prelim CPI for Jul will be released this week. Headline inflation is expected to ease to +2.3% over the year, from +2.5% in Jun. Core inflation is also expected to slow to +2.8% in Jul, from +2.9% in Jun. Euro area Q2 growth is expected to remain at a modest +0.3% over the quarter.
The full suite of S&P global PMIs will be released this week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $696bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and FRNs, raising approx. $117bn in new money. This includes TIPs, Notes, Bonds, and FRNs auctioned over the two prior weeks.
QT this week: Approx $29bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $10bn in Notes & Bonds will roll off the balance sheet.
The US Treasury will release its latest quarterly refunding and financing requirements for Q3 and Q4.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Jul 22, 2024
Key events this week – US PCE inflation & Q2 GDP, Bank of Canada policy meeting, S&P prelim PMIs Jul
Recap from last week
Both US Fed Chair Powell and Fed Governor Waller continued to reiterate the shift to a more balanced focus of the Fed’s dual mandate. Neither signaled a timing on rate cuts. However, Fed Governor Waller noted that data is getting closer to a point where he can be confident to start cutting rates;
So, while I don’t believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted. Source: Fed Governor Waller
Governor Waller outlined several possible paths of inflation and the implications for the timing of rate cuts. Between the two likely outcomes, the difference lies in whether a rate cut will occur “in the not too distant future” or if “a rate cut in the near future is more uncertain”. Markets continued to price in the first US rate cut in Sept, with a roughly 50% probability of follow-up cuts in both Nov and Dec (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool). The FOMC meets next week and is likely to provide a signal for the start of the cutting cycle.
US data provided some upside for Q2 growth last week, which included positive revisions for May data. US nominal retail sales for Jun came in as expected at 0% change. The retail control group measure – which feeds into GDP consumption was much stronger than expected at +0.9% growth in Jun. Retail sales growth in May was revised higher, indicating that spending had not been as weak as previously thought. New housing starts were slightly better than expected in Jun (led by multi-family starts), however overall growth in housing starts remains subdued. Growth in industrial production for Jun was higher than expected at +0.6%, with May also revised higher. Initial claims data jumped in the prior week with half of the increase coming from Texas, likely the result of Hurricane Beryl. The Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for real GDP growth in Q2 increased to +2.7% by the end of last week – led by a higher contribution from spending and change in private inventories. The official advance measure of US Q2 GDP is out this week and is expected to show growth increasing to +1.9% (annualized) in Q2, up from +1.4% in Q1.
The ECB kept its policy rates on hold, as expected, after delivering its first rate cut at the previous meeting. In Jun, inflation measures were either stable or just edged down and inflation is expected to fluctuate around current levels for the rest of the year. The question of a rate cut at the Sept meeting is ‘wide open’, with the Governing Council adhering to its data-dependent approach. After the meeting, a Bloomberg article indicated some caution over the path of follow-up rate cuts this year;
With inflation pressures still lingering, officials are becoming less confident that a path for two further reductions is realistic, and don’t want investors to assume that a move in September is a done deal, said the people, who declined to be identified because deliberations are private. (Bloomberg)
Outlook for the week ahead
The focus this week will be on the US Fed-preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price deflator. This will be an important release, looking to confirm the improving inflation picture ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Headline PCE inflation is expected to increase by +0.1% in Jun, after 0% change in May. The annual rate is expected to slow to +2.5% from +2.56% in May. Core PCE inflation is expected to increase by +0.2% in Jun after increasing by +0.1% in May. Core PCE inflation is expected to increase by +2.6% over the year in Jun, slightly above the +2.57% rate in May.
It is the blackout period for US Fed speeches this week, ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
The Bank of Canada meets this week and is expected to cut rates again by 25bps. Canadian inflation continued to ease in Jun and the unemployment rate drifted higher. The latest (albeit lagging) May retail sales fell more than expected. The Q2 BoC Outlook Survey maintained the subdued tone from Q1 as firms continued to be pessimistic about discretionary spending and business investment. Despite the lackluster outlook, “few firms plan to reduce headcounts”. At the press conference in Jun, Gov Macklem noted that “if inflation continues to ease, and our confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the 2% target continues to increase, it is reasonable to expect further cuts to our policy interest rate. But we are taking our interest rate decisions one meeting at a time”.
Finally, the S&P prelim PMIs for the key G4 (plus Aus) economies will be released this week for Jul. This will provide the first view of momentum across services and manufacturing activity at the start of Q3.
This week, the US Treasury will auction approx. $696bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and FRNs, raising approx. $117bn in new money. This includes the 10-year TIPS and 20-year Bond auctioned last week.
QT this week: Approx $8.9bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Jul 15, 2024
Key events this week – US retail sales, Fed speeches; Powell & Waller, ECB meeting, global CPI reports; UK, Canada, Euro Area final, Japan, and NZ, Aus labor market
Recap from last week
US Fed Chair Powell delivered his semi-annual testimony to the US Congress before the release of the latest inflation reports. In his testimony, Fed Chair Powell reiterated recent messages that the FOMC still needs greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably to the 2% target. More ‘good data’ on inflation would strengthen that confidence. Finally, the focus on the two elements of the dual mandate is now more in balance than they have been in a long time. While most of the focus has been on inflation in recent years, the labor market is “pretty much in balance to where it needs to be” (source: Financial Services Committee).
The US CPI for Jun came in lower than expected and likely qualifies as another good inflation report for the Fed, indicating further progress along the disinflationary path. The headline CPI rate slowed from +3.3% in May to +3% in Jun. The core inflation rate provided some further good news, easing from +3.4% in May to +3.3% in Jun – with most of the deceleration coming from core services and some easing in more persistent shelter price inflation.
The US PPI report for Jun was higher than expected. The headline PPI rate increased to +2.7% in Jun from +2.4% in May. While final demand goods prices fell, led mostly by the fall in energy prices, final demand services price growth accelerated, led by the rising trade services index (wholesale & retail margins). Some of these pressures are not likely to feed into the Fed-preferred PCE inflation gauge (due 26 Jul).
It was overall a quiet week for other US data. The update to the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 resulted in the GDP run rate lifting to +2% growth from +1.5% at the end of the prior week. Also, after the US inflation data, markets started pricing a 50% chance of a third cut in rates this year (source: CME FedWatch).
The RBNZ met last week and kept rates on hold as expected. The tone of the decision shifted to dovish with guidance acknowledging that while policy will need to stay restrictive, the extent of restraint will be tempered over time as inflation eases. This was a change from the May meeting which indicated that interest rate cuts continued to be delayed. The RBNZ noted a growing body of evidence that excess capacity in the domestic economy is emerging, providing greater certainty that domestic-led price pressures will sustainably decline. The latest NZ Q2 inflation data will be released this week, and this will be an important update for the near-term outlook on NZ rates.
Outlook for the week ahead
Our focus this week shifts to a broader update on US growth for Q2. With the Fed now emphasizing greater balance in achieving its dual mandate, changes in growth momentum will be important for understanding the broader risk to employment outcomes while the Fed seeks greater confidence in reaching its inflation target.
US data this week will start to incorporate the final month of Q2 across consumer spending, housing investment, and industrial output. US retail sales growth in Jun is expected to be flat at 0% change after increasing by +0.1% in May. US industrial production is expected to increase by +0.3% in Jun after rising by +0.9% in May. US housing starts are expected to increase from 1.277m (annualized rate) in May to 1.39m in Jun. New housing permits are expected to be little changed at 1.39m (annualized rate) in Jun.
Two important US Fed speeches will be in focus this week. US Fed Chair Powell will speak on Monday 15 Jul and Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook on Wed 17 Jul. Next week, the Fed will be in the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on 30-31Jul.
The US election landscape remains in focus. The Republican National Convention will be held this week and is expected to confirm President Trump as the official nominee for President. The Republican Vice President candidate is also expected to be announced at the convention. Uncertainty over the candidacy of President Biden remains elevated.
The ECB will meet this week and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. The ECB cut rates at the last meeting, noting that the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission supported increased confidence that inflation was converging to target. The ECB continues to reiterate a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Since the Jun meeting, progress on inflation has slowed somewhat. This week, the final Euro Area CPI reading for Jun is expected to be confirmed at +2.5% and core CPI at +2.9% over the year.
There will be several inflation reports this week and they will be important for upcoming central bank meetings. UK headline CPI is expected to slow to +1.9% in Jun from +2% in May. Core CPI is expected to be little changed at +3.5% in Jun from +3.5% in May. The next BoE meeting will be on 1 Aug.
Canada’s CPI is expected to ease further. The BoC trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation is expected to slow further to +2.8% in Jun from +2.9% in May. Headline inflation is expected to slow to +0.1% over the month (slowing from +0.6% in May) and to be little changed at +2.9% over the year in Jun. The next meeting of the BoC will be next week on 24 Jul.
The BoJ preferred measure of Japanese inflation ex fresh food is expected to increase slightly from +2.5% in May to +2.7% in Jun.
NZ CPI for Q2 is expected to slow slightly to +0.5% over the quarter from +0.6% in Q1. Annual inflation is expected to stay little changed around +4%.
The Aus labour market update for Jun will be released this week. Employment growth is expected to moderate slightly, while the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4%. The next RBA meeting will be on 6 Aug and questions remain over whether the RBA may hike again. The more important Q2 CPI will be released before the next RBA meeting on 31 Jul.
Finally, a range of Chinese data was released over the weekend, showing a further moderation in growth over Q2 as domestic demand growth slowed. This supported the view from the Jun trade data last week showing imports falling while export growth remained robust. China’s third plenum will be held this week and is usually a forum for announcing longer-term policy initiatives.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $570bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds raising approx. $74bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 20-year Bond and 10-year TIPS this week – both will settle at the end of the month.
QT this week: Approx $28.5bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $14.7bn in Notes, Bonds, and TIPS will be redeemed and roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Jul 8, 2024
Key events this week – US CPI & PPI, US Fed Chair Powell testimony, RBNZ monetary policy meeting
Recap from last week
At the Sintra forum last week, Fed Chair Powell noted that the US had experienced solid growth in the first half, a robust but rebalancing labor market, and inflation showing signs of resuming a disinflationary trend after modest progress in Q1. His message was consistent; the FOMC wants more inflation data to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before starting the process of loosening policy.
Because the US economy and labour market is strong, we have the ability to take our time and get this right and that what we’re planning to do. US Fed Chair Powell, SINTRA Panel Discussion, Jul 2024
Going into last week, the FOMC view of the US labor market was that the recovery was now mostly back to its pre-pandemic condition of ‘relatively tight, but not overheating’ and a better balance in labor market conditions had been observed.
We see gradual cooling, gradual moving toward better balance. We’re monitoring it carefully for signs of something more than that, but we really don’t see that. US Fed Chair Powell, FOMC press conference, Jun 2024
The Jun labor market data showed more of those balanced conditions; labor demand continued to ease, but there was little evidence that firms were reducing staffing. Non-farm payroll growth has slowed back to around pre-pandemic rates. Employment growth in the household survey has slowed to well below its pre-pandemic rate of growth. The lagging JOLTS survey for May showed job openings remaining firmer – with the vacancy rate increasing slightly to 4.9% – still above the 4.5% rate before the pandemic. The hiring rate slowed to 3.6% in May, and this is now below the 3.9% rate before the onset of the pandemic.
While these indicators suggest labor demand has eased, other data suggest little shift to firms actively reducing employment. The layoff and discharge rate for May stayed at a low of 1.0% (it was 1.3% on the eve of the pandemic). Initial jobless claims have increased through Jun, but have not accelerated, but continuing claims are rising. Despite this, the unemployment rate has continued to drift higher – employment growth has not kept pace with the growth of the labor force since around Nov last year. The unemployment rate increased from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in Jun. The FOMC projection for the unemployment rate is 4.1% at the end of 2024. Fed Chair Powell has referenced the core working age group of 25-54yrs in several speeches – and the unemployment rate for this group increased more notably to 3.5% in Jun from 3.3% in May, and above the 3% unemployment rate recorded just before the pandemic.
The FOMC minutes suggest growing awareness among Committee members that the unemployment rate could increase further now that labor demand has mostly normalized;
Several participants specifically emphasized that with the labor market normalizing, a further weakening of demand may now generate a larger unemployment response than in the recent past when lower demand for labor was felt relatively more through fewer job openings. FOMC Minutes, Jun 2024
In the context of already rising unemployment, the slowdown in the growth run rate for Q2 is important for what it means to the risk of further increases in unemployment while the Fed waits for more confidence on inflation. The latest Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for US Q2 GDP growth stepped down further to +1.5% annualized, after starting the week at +2.2%. Weaker ISM surveys for Jun, factory output, construction spending, and vehicle sales data contributed to the lowered growth run rate.
Outlook for the week ahead
With growth slowing and unemployment drifting higher, June’s updated inflation data will be an important input for the FOMC’s policy rate assessment at the end of the month. A continued slowdown in inflation would likely add to the case for the FOMC to consider plans to start cutting rates. The current target rate probabilities have been firming around Sept for the FOMC to commence its rate-cutting cycle (Source; CME FedWatch).
Before the CPI release this week, US Fed Chair Powell will give two days of testimony in his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. There will also be several other Fed speeches throughout the week.
This will be followed by the US CPI and PPI reports for Jun. Headline CPI is expected to slow to +3.1% over the year in Jun from +3.3% in May. Monthly headline inflation is expected to be +0.1% in Jun, up from 0% in May. However, core CPI is expected to stay at +3.4% in Jun, unchanged from +3.4% in May. The monthly core inflation reading is also expected to be unchanged at +0.2% in Jun.
US headline PPI inflation is expected to be unchanged at +2.2% in Jun, while the monthly rate is expected to increase to +0.1% in Jun, up from -0.2% in May. Core PPI is expected to rise slightly to +2.5% in Jun, up from +2.3% in May. The monthly core rate is expected to increase to +0.2% in Jun, up from 0% in May.
The Fed-preferred PCE inflation gauge will be released on 26 Jul, just before the next FOMC meeting.
The RBNZ will meet on monetary policy this week and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $487bn in ST Bills, raising approx. $36bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 30-year Bond, 10-year Note, and 3-year Note this week to settle next week.
QT this week: Approx $11.4bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
