The Weekly Macro Outlook

Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys, RBA & RBNZ monetary policy decisions Recap from last week US core PCE inflation continued to ease while spending and growth data reflected mostly resilient economic conditions. The elephant in the room...

Key events this week – US PCE inflation, spending, housing, and growth, Fed speeches incl Fed Chair Powell, Euro Area & Aus inflation Recap from last week There was a further shift to a pause in policy hikes from central banks last week. The FOMC kept rates on...

Key events this week – Monetary policy decisions; FOMC, BoE, SNB, & BoJ, CPI: Eurozone, UK, Canada, & Japan, Prelim PMIs Sep Recap from last week We have previously noted that central banks have been shifting to a pause in the rate hiking cycle, having...

Key events this week – US CPI & retail sales, ECB policy meeting Recap from last week A theme of slower growth emerged in central bank decisions and data last week. Central bank policy decisions continued to favor pausing at this stage of the cycle to allow time...

Key events this week – RBA & BoC policy meetings, US ISM Services, Global services PMIs Recap from last week It was an important week of US data inputs helping to assess the path of the US labor market, growth, and inflation ahead of the next FOMC meeting this...

Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, PCE Price Inflation, Euro Area CPI Recap from last week “As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” An obscure closing reference to the Jackson Hole symposium theme of structural shifts in the...

Key events this week – US Federal Reserve Annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Prelim PMIs Aug Recap from last week The FOMC minutes continued to emphasize that inflation is unacceptably high, and that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive. The...

Key events this week – FOMC minutes, RBA minutes, and RBNZ policy meeting, US growth indicators; retail sales, housing construction, and industrial production, global CPIs; UK, Canada, Euro Area (final), and Japan Recap from last week Last week we continued to fill in...

Key events this week – US CPI Recap from last week Over the next two months, the ‘totality’ of US growth, inflation, and labor market data will be central in determining the next policy steps for the FOMC. The focus last week was on the US labor market and growth...

Key events this week – BoE & RBA monetary policy meetings, US non-farm payrolls, US ISM surveys, Euro area CPI prelim for Jul, global PMIs for Jul Recap from last week Both the FOMC and ECB hiked rates last week but provided limited forward guidance. Despite...