The Weekly Macro Outlook

The weekly macro review for w/c 17 August 2020 - The prelim PMI’s for Aug were mixed. The strongest PMI among the larger economies for Aug remains UK services. Given the severe declines recorded around the world from Feb to Jun, the rebound in the UK PMI’s since Jun...

The weekly macro review for w/c 10 August 2020 - The good news in this week’s review was the continued slowdown in the pace of US initial and continuing jobless claims. The improvement/reduction in claims was uniform across the US with only four states recording...

The weekly macro review for w/c 3 August 2020 - In the US, there was a more notable improvement/reduction in the number of new and continuing claims across both state and federal programs this week. Similarly, non-farm payrolls also recorded further growth in new...

The weekly macro review for w/c 27 July 2020 - US headline consumer sentiment and sentiment around expected conditions have both fallen back to the lows reached at the start of pandemic. The Expectations Index fell back to 65.9 in July, tied with the six-year low...

The weekly macro review for w/c 20 July 2020 - The prelim PMI’s for Jul show that there have been mixed results in the pace of improvement in private sector activity and output. The important point is the context of these PMI results from Apr, May, Jun, and Jul....

The weekly macro review for w/c 13 July 2020 - One of the key themes this week is the potentially stalling/slowing recovery in jobs growth in the US. The high frequency data (initial, continuing, and PUA claims and the Household Pulse survey) is showing some signs of...

The weekly macro review for w/c 6 July 2020 - Last week we reviewed the manufacturing recovery in the US in Jun. This week we look at services/non-manufacturing activity. The easing of lock-down and trading restrictions resulted in some improvement in private sector...

The weekly macro review for w/c 29 June 2020 - Sectors within the US economy have, so far, been affected by the pandemic in different ways. US durable goods manufacturing has been most affected within transport equipment, specifically, motor vehicles and non-defense...

The weekly macro review for w/c 22 June 2020 - Global prelim PMI’s for Jun showed some further improvement since countries started to lift restrictions related to the pandemic. This month, there was a continued ‘slower pace of decline’. This means that the number of...

The weekly macro review for w/c 15 June 2020 - The current trend of initial and continuing claims indicates little progress into reducing unemployment via reopening so far. Granted, its early days in the reopening process, but this is the second week of Jun data for...