The Weekly Macro Outlook

The weekly macro review for w/c 8 June 2020 - There were no changes made to US monetary policy settings this week. The FOMC statement and press conference were more downbeat in the current assessment of conditions, but did note some positive developments as the...

The weekly macro review for w/c 1 June 2020 - The first view of May activity, via the PMI’s, showed manufacturing and service sectors beginning the recovery from widespread shut-downs and stay at home orders. The decline in activity eased across the US, Europe, UK,...

The weekly macro review for w/c 25 May 2020 - Consumer sentiment in the US barely improved in May despite most states now starting to lift stay-at-home restrictions. Consumer assessment of current conditions improved, while expectations of future conditions actually...

The weekly macro review for w/c 18 May 2020 - The prelim PMI’s for May suggest that the pace of the falls in output may have started to abate across the US, Eurozone, and UK. The ‘slower pace of decline’ in this case means that more firms are starting to record...

The weekly macro review for w/c 11 May 2020 - Data this week provided more robust confirmation of the scale of the decline in economic activity – especially in Apr. The Apr data reflects at least one full month of restrictions across most countries, except China where...

The weekly macro review for w/c 4 May 2020 - Even though it was expected, the extremely large decline in employment and increase in unemployment in the US jobs report was still alarming. The initial and continuing unemployment claims data indicate that this is likely...

The weekly macro review for w/c 27 April 2020 - Demand remains firmly in contraction. Pressure is mounting on governments and states to lift distancing restrictions in order to address/reverse the severe economic impact of those restrictions. While infection curves...

The weekly macro review for w/c 20th April 2020 - The Mar data has continued to show the first downside impacts to economic activity from the Covid-19 shutdowns. The frontline of the US durable goods manufacturing impact in Mar was motor vehicles and non-defense...

The weekly macro review for w/c 13 April 2020 - The sudden drop in output, sentiment and employment has so far been unprecedented. We expect this data to remain very weak until quarantine measures start to lift. In the US, and across many countries, stimulus is...

The weekly macro review for w/c 6 April 2020 - The sheer weight of the emerging US and global unemployment picture indicates that the demand shock from C-19 shutdowns will likely be significant. Late in the week, the US Fed announced a further $2.3t in funding for...