The Weekly Macro Outlook

The weekly macro review for w/c 11 May 2020 - Data this week provided more robust confirmation of the scale of the decline in economic activity – especially in Apr. The Apr data reflects at least one full month of restrictions across most countries, except China where...

The weekly macro review for w/c 4 May 2020 - Even though it was expected, the extremely large decline in employment and increase in unemployment in the US jobs report was still alarming. The initial and continuing unemployment claims data indicate that this is likely...

The weekly macro review for w/c 27 April 2020 - Demand remains firmly in contraction. Pressure is mounting on governments and states to lift distancing restrictions in order to address/reverse the severe economic impact of those restrictions. While infection curves...

The weekly macro review for w/c 20th April 2020 - The Mar data has continued to show the first downside impacts to economic activity from the Covid-19 shutdowns. The frontline of the US durable goods manufacturing impact in Mar was motor vehicles and non-defense...

The weekly macro review for w/c 13 April 2020 - The sudden drop in output, sentiment and employment has so far been unprecedented. We expect this data to remain very weak until quarantine measures start to lift. In the US, and across many countries, stimulus is...

The weekly macro review for w/c 6 April 2020 - The sheer weight of the emerging US and global unemployment picture indicates that the demand shock from C-19 shutdowns will likely be significant. Late in the week, the US Fed announced a further $2.3t in funding for...

The weekly macro review for w/c 30 March 2020 - Data this week showed that services, especially consumer facing service industries, have so far been most heavily impacted by the pandemic. That said, across the US, Asia and Europe private sector activity across both...

UPDATE TO THE WEEKLY MACRO BRIEF 31 Mar 2020 - After posting the briefing document, the US Treasury added two Cash Management Bills (CMB) for the week - a 42-Day and 69-Day CMB. Together, this increased the total of Bills and Coupons settling this week by $105bn....

The weekly macro review for w/c 16 March 2020 - More countries, as well as individual US states, have tightened quarantine measures in an effort to slow the spread of the Coronavirus. This is having significant impacts on economic activity – not to mention enormous...

Disruptions to financial markets continued last week. Central banks have responded with emergency rate cuts and further measures to ease financial conditions. The RBNZ cut rates by 75bps to +0.25% and the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 100bps to 0-0.25% ahead of its...