The Weekly Macro Outlook

The weekly macro brief for w/c 6 January 2020 - This week, markets are likely to continue to follow geopolitical developments regarding the US and Iran. We will also hear more about a possible signing of the US-China phase one trade agreement. At this stage, there...

The weekly macro brief for w/c 30 December 2019 - Its year end this week and there will be some focus on the repo market and any potential stress in markets/rates. The Fed has ramped up liquidity support leading up to the year-end turn in order to avoid the funding...

Trade news continued to create a positive context this week. While few details are yet to emerge on the US-China deal, a deal is expected to be drafted and signed by early 2020. The USMCA was approved in Congress by a large majority and that deal now goes to the...

The weekly macro review for w/c 9 December 2019 - Several of the larger uncertainties for the global economy are now poised to be resolved positively. There were several major developments during the week. Firstly, the US and China have agreed on a phase one trade...

The weekly macro review for w/c 2 December 2019 - Global manufacturing weakness persisted into Nov across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia. But one of the main sources of recent weakness, China, was the stronger performer this month with activity rebounding into...

The weekly macro review for w/c 25 November 2019 - US data this week continued to highlight generally weaker manufacturing activity across the three regional reports for Nov. The advance Durable Goods report for Oct was mixed. Orders rebounded across most categories,...

The weekly macro review for w/c 18 November 2019 - The FOMC minutes confirmed a more “wait and see” mode, allowing some time for policy rate changes to flow through to the economy. Guidance was also changed to reflect more focus on incoming data. It was noted in the...

The weekly macro review for w/c 11 November 2019 - US manufacturing data remained weak in Sep. Total industrial production declined in Sep and manufacturing led the decline. Drilling down, auto manufacturing was a notable area of weakness. Production declined at an...

The weekly macro review for w/c 4 November 2019; There were several important highlights in the US data this week – mostly reinforcing the weaker state of growth. Factory orders for Sep indicated the continued weakening growth across several of the larger categories –...

The weekly macro review for w/c 28 October 2019 - The FOMC reduced the FFR target at the latest meeting. While there had been no notable deterioration in conditions since the last meeting, Chairman Powell spoke of this reduction as more of an insurance against ongoing...