The Weekly Macro Outlook

The weekly macro review for w/c 12 August 2019 - Economic and sentiment data, as well as US-China trade tariffs, was the main focus of the week. The US softened its stance on the next 10% of tariffs on the remaining $300bn of US imports from China. Some tariffs will...

The weekly macro review for w/c 5 August 2019 - Tensions between the US and China escalated at the start of the week after the US announced plans to implement a further 10% tariff on imports from China. The USD/CNY moved above 7.00 for the first time in ten years –...

The weekly macro review for w/c 29 July 2019 - The US Fed and the BoJ made changes to policy and guidance citing downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty. The US Fed cut the FFR by 25bps and has ended quantitative tightening. The BoJ added...

The weekly macro review for w/c 22 July 2019 - Data out this week confirmed lower US growth momentum. The Q2 advance GDP release showed that annual growth slowed to 2.1% (SAAR). Revisions to annual GDP growth had several impacts; the annual growth by quarter was...

The weekly macro review for w/c 15 July 2019 - Speeches by US Fed officials created confusion over signalling this week. Chairman Powell signalled the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting. An expectation for a 50bp cut had somehow become embedded and the...

The weekly macro review for w/c 8 July 2019 - In a speech during the week, Fed Chairman Powell was widely seen as signalling that a rate cut for Jul was likely. The minutes of the prior meeting provided the broader context and outlined the reasons behind the increase...

The macro review for w/c 1 July 2019; The manufacturing slow-down in the US and abroad is continuing to evolve. The ongoing lack of growth in new orders is manifesting now as falling order backlogs and, anecdotally, reduced input buying. In some cases, finished goods...

The macro review for w/c 24 June 2019 - The G20 delivered over the weekend. From our review last week; “The G20 is a perfect venue for these gestures, with its traditionally grand shows of diplomatic pleasantries. If Trump and Xi appear together, shake hands and...

The macro review for w/c 17 June 2019 - Central banks were the main focus during the week – mostly signalling that more policy accommodation is to be expected. The FOMC, RBA, and ECB indicated that further accommodations were required in order to reach inflation...

The macro review for w/c 10 June 2019 - Data out of China this week was mixed but suggests little in the way of accelerating growth. Industrial production continued to grow at a slower pace while consumers/households face higher prices with CPI growth accelerating on...