The Weekly Macro Outlook

The macro review for w/c 14 January 2019; A much quieter week on the central bank front. Both key speeches this week by ECB President Mario Draghi and NY Fed President John Williams reiterated the central banks’ commitment to deploy their policy tools “if and when” it...

The macro review for w/c 7 January 2019 - The stance of several key central banks has now shifted from removing policy accommodations to a ‘wait and see’ approach as growth concerns increase. Fed speeches throughout the week and the FOMC minutes, continued to...

The macro review for w/c 31 December 2018 - Several central banks stepped in to calm the markets last week. First, US Fed Chairman Powell made it explicit that the Fed will be flexible and will adjust policy, and significantly, if required. Chairman Powell referenced...

We pick up the new year with a full schedule of data, heavy treasury issuance, Fed speeches and ongoing trade negotiations. Heavy supply of US treasuries to be settled this week with the US Treasury settling approx. $298bn in bill and note auctions throughout the...

The most anticipated event of the week was the FOMC meeting. The FFR was increased for the fourth time this year. The statement of the decision had an unexpected hawkish tone including retaining the reference to “further hikes”. Chairman Powell’s news conference,...

Macro review for w/c 10 December 2018 - US data out this week was positive and likely supportive of another hike in Dec. JOLTS data highlighted that job openings and hires remain close to respective recent peaks, while layoffs and discharges were unchanged in the...

Macro review for w/c 3 December 2018 -  There has been a large shift in the growth narrative over the last few weeks. Increased emphasis has been placed on the likelihood of slower growth in the near-term outlook due to yield curve inversion, fading stimulus and the...

The macro review for w/c 25 November 2018 - Despite a positive assessment of current conditions, a point in Chairman Powell’s speech during the week was interpreted as a change to the view of where we are in the hiking cycle - shifting from ‘a long way from neutral’...

The macro review for w/c 19 November 2018 - Global growth remained in focus last week. In the US, the question is whether the Fed will pause rate hikes. Prelim PMI’s for Nov indicated growth had slowed across manufacturing and services. The advance durable goods...

The macro review for w/c 12 November 2018 - Slower global growth was a key focus this week across several fronts. Speeches by regional Fed Presidents and Fed Chairman Powell all acknowledged slower growth globally, although growth remains strong in the US. “Broad...