The Weekly Macro Outlook

The most anticipated event of the week was the FOMC meeting. The FFR was increased for the fourth time this year. The statement of the decision had an unexpected hawkish tone including retaining the reference to “further hikes”. Chairman Powell’s news conference,...

Macro review for w/c 10 December 2018 - US data out this week was positive and likely supportive of another hike in Dec. JOLTS data highlighted that job openings and hires remain close to respective recent peaks, while layoffs and discharges were unchanged in the...

Macro review for w/c 3 December 2018 -  There has been a large shift in the growth narrative over the last few weeks. Increased emphasis has been placed on the likelihood of slower growth in the near-term outlook due to yield curve inversion, fading stimulus and the...

The macro review for w/c 25 November 2018 - Despite a positive assessment of current conditions, a point in Chairman Powell’s speech during the week was interpreted as a change to the view of where we are in the hiking cycle - shifting from ‘a long way from neutral’...

The macro review for w/c 19 November 2018 - Global growth remained in focus last week. In the US, the question is whether the Fed will pause rate hikes. Prelim PMI’s for Nov indicated growth had slowed across manufacturing and services. The advance durable goods...

The macro review for w/c 12 November 2018 - Slower global growth was a key focus this week across several fronts. Speeches by regional Fed Presidents and Fed Chairman Powell all acknowledged slower growth globally, although growth remains strong in the US. “Broad...

The macro review for w/c 5 November 2018 - As expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold. There was little change to the accompanying statement. US data out this week confirmed the continued strength of economic activity. Growth in services activity remains close to near...

The macro review for w/c 29 October 2018 - Data this week confirmed continued strength in the US labour market. The highlight of the labour market report was the increase in participation.  The gap between the current participation rate and that of the pre-GFC period...

The macro review for w/c 22 October 2018 - Fed speakers addressed whether it is time for a pause in interest rate increases given current market volatility, some weaker earnings outlook going into 2019 and weaker housing/auto sales. Fed outlook was always for...

The macro review for w/c 15 October 2018 - There was no agreement on Brexit at the EC meeting and not enough progress had been made on the withdrawal agreement to schedule an additional EC meeting for November. This leaves timings and options very tight. US data...