The Weekly Macro Outlook

The macro review for w/c 5 November 2018 - As expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold. There was little change to the accompanying statement. US data out this week confirmed the continued strength of economic activity. Growth in services activity remains close to near...

The macro review for w/c 29 October 2018 - Data this week confirmed continued strength in the US labour market. The highlight of the labour market report was the increase in participation.  The gap between the current participation rate and that of the pre-GFC period...

The macro review for w/c 22 October 2018 - Fed speakers addressed whether it is time for a pause in interest rate increases given current market volatility, some weaker earnings outlook going into 2019 and weaker housing/auto sales. Fed outlook was always for...

The macro review for w/c 15 October 2018 - There was no agreement on Brexit at the EC meeting and not enough progress had been made on the withdrawal agreement to schedule an additional EC meeting for November. This leaves timings and options very tight. US data...

The macro review for w/c 8 October 2018 -  Inflation reports in the US were somewhat mixed. Growth in producer prices in Aug was higher, due to transport and warehouse prices. The annual core PPI growth remains at its highest level of the last 12months at +2.9%. In...

Macro review for w/c 1 October 2018 - “Stalling export trade” was a key theme from the latest round of PMI’s for September. This was evident in the manufacturing PMI’s for the Eurozone, including Germany, Japan, China and Canada. There was ‘modest’ improvement in the...

Macro review for w/c 24 September 2018 - As expected the US Federal Reserve increased the FFR by 25bps last week. A key change to the statement was the removal of “stance remains accommodative” but this did not signal a change in the path of policy. Projections for...

Macro review for w/c 17 Sept 2018 - Trade and Brexit negotiations took a negative turn this week. The US-China trade dispute escalated with further tariffs implemented by both sides. The next round of trade talks was cancelled by China. Negotiations between US and...

Macro review for w/c 10 September 2018 - The week ended with threats of escalation in the trade dispute between US and China. Reports of possible retaliation from China amounts to what would be a major disruption to US supply chains in China. Escalation from China...

Macro review for w/c 3 September 2018 - US growth momentum continues into Q3. Employment and non-farm payrolls continue to grow and the annual avg hourly earnings growth accelerated. ISM’s for August show business activity expanding at a faster rate, but PMI’s more...