The Weekly Macro Outlook

The macro review for w/c 8 October 2018 -  Inflation reports in the US were somewhat mixed. Growth in producer prices in Aug was higher, due to transport and warehouse prices. The annual core PPI growth remains at its highest level of the last 12months at +2.9%. In...

Macro review for w/c 1 October 2018 - “Stalling export trade” was a key theme from the latest round of PMI’s for September. This was evident in the manufacturing PMI’s for the Eurozone, including Germany, Japan, China and Canada. There was ‘modest’ improvement in the...

Macro review for w/c 24 September 2018 - As expected the US Federal Reserve increased the FFR by 25bps last week. A key change to the statement was the removal of “stance remains accommodative” but this did not signal a change in the path of policy. Projections for...

Macro review for w/c 17 Sept 2018 - Trade and Brexit negotiations took a negative turn this week. The US-China trade dispute escalated with further tariffs implemented by both sides. The next round of trade talks was cancelled by China. Negotiations between US and...

Macro review for w/c 10 September 2018 - The week ended with threats of escalation in the trade dispute between US and China. Reports of possible retaliation from China amounts to what would be a major disruption to US supply chains in China. Escalation from China...

Macro review for w/c 3 September 2018 - US growth momentum continues into Q3. Employment and non-farm payrolls continue to grow and the annual avg hourly earnings growth accelerated. ISM’s for August show business activity expanding at a faster rate, but PMI’s more...

Macro review w/c 27 August 2018 - A preliminary agreement on NAFTA was reached between the US and Mexico, with President Trump notifying Congress of his intention “to sign a trade agreement with Mexico – and Canada, if it is willing, 90 days from now”. Talks between...

Macro review w/c 20 Aug 2018 - From Jackson Hole, the US Fed Chairman reiterated his key principal that rate hikes that are too fast or too slow are undesirable. The path for interest rate increases will continue to be gradual and based on the incoming data. The data...

Macro review for w/c 13 August 2018 - Positive developments on trade this week. NAFTA talks between the US and Mexico continued possibly with some breakthroughs on new rules on auto trade and agricultural trade. Canada is yet to re-join talks. Talks are set to resume...

Macro Review for w/c 6 August 2018 - Starting with central bank meetings – the RBA and RBNZ both kept rates on hold last week. The BoJ summary of opinions report highlighted little differences of opinion on recent MP implementation changes. One opinion stood out –...