The Mars Market Update — Live Research

US equity markets continue to stall at resistance with no strong evidence of a bearish reversal. While resistance is resistance until proven otherwise, the benchmark SPX would still look best with a final wave (iv) and (v) push to new swing highs to complete blue wave C (preferred count). This would align with another wave (iv) and (v) higher for the Nasdaq indices and final wave (b) and (c) higher for the Russell. These final subdivisions should set up intermediate market tops for the US...

Risk assets continue to squeeze higher as inflation pressures ease and growth stabilises. We continue to see this equity market rally as an ending wave prior to the resumption of the big picture bear market. We expect growth and inflation risks to be overwhelmed by increasing default and credit risk in this over-levered financialised world. Equity Markets - Extend and pretend Our benchmark SPX / ES continues to squeeze higher for what we expect to be a wave (c) or C rally. There are now enough...

Last week, equities stalled at near term resistance but there is no strong evidence of a bearish reversal. The benchmark SPX continues to retest its February highs while the Russell 2000 tests its major swing lows - a bifurcated equity market (weak growth vs rate risks). The DXY weakness continued but the US$ decline was NOT broad-based. Commodity currencies and the Yen underperformed - another bifurcated market. Bonds stalled at resistance (again) while Commodities are threatening to break...

Last week, equities extended higher for what we expect to be a wave (c) or C rally with a risk-on end of quarter rally. We continue to see this rally as a correction within a bigger picture bear market - it's just a matter of degree. The DXY continues to hold support and is attempting to turn higher while CL launched higher with the help of OPEC. Equity Markets - testing near term resistance The Russell 2000 remains our tell for the bigger picture bear case as the Nasdaq drags overall risk...

Markets remain range bound and continue to churn with inter-market divergences across the board. The tech centric Nasdaq indices are pressing swing highs while the small cap Russell 2000 tests major swing lows. The benchmark SPX / ES stalled at initial resistance but there is no strong evidence of a bearish turn. We continue to see these rallies as corrections within bigger picture bear markets as traders whistle past the graveyard. NB: We finally have updated COT data!!! Equity Markets -...

Last week, equities rebounded from support despite bank runs, government intervention and financial instability culminating in the forced sale of Credit Suisse to UBS. These are NOT ordinary times. The financial system is a confidence game. Historically high leverage across governments, corporates and individuals in a rising rate environment cannot end well - the XLF (financials index) is warning of financial system failure "if" confidence is not restored. NB: FOMC this week will bring further...

Last week saw a sharp decline in global equity markets following Powell's backflip on slowing rate rises coupled with the failure of a couple of US regional banks. This decline broke key near term trend support and invalidated the near term bull case. Unfortunately, this latest decline opens the door to both bullish and bearish options - muddying the already murky outlook. Bonds rallied strongly as expected with the help of a potential bank run while the US$ faded from resistance. Commodities...

Last week, equities held layered support and rallied strongly to end the week, helping to confirm our near term bullish outlook. Last week's lows are now key support for what we expect to be a wave (iii) of C rally to new cycle highs. Bonds tagged equality support and reversed higher while the US$ may be topping or have topped to complete wave (a) of a larger degree correction. Ideally, we'd like to see US$ weakness this week to help confirm the potential bull reversals in equities and bonds....

Last week, equities extended their near term declines as expected towards respective support zones. I am not convinced that the counter-trend wave (2) rally is complete and suspect that markets are constructing a more complex correction for wave C of (2). Global rates and the US$ continue to rise while commodities remain mixed. Macro markets appear to be in a corrective phase as they search for direction. Best to tread lightly until the primary trends are re-established... NB: We are still...

Last week, equity markets traded lower for what appears to be a corrective decline. The lack of conviction in these markets is palpable as traders search for direction. This lack of conviction is evident across asset classes with mixed FX markets, rising rates and choppy commodity markets. There appears to be a lack of impulsive (trending) price activity across major macro markets. Trade lightly in these choppy whipsawing markets until a clear trend is established - equities appear to be...