The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The everything bubble continues to inflate risk assets until it doesn't. We see no evidence of weakness in the bullish market trends as primary equity markets subdivide higher. We continue to look for a major market top in 2021 but we're not there yet. Global risk remains supported by excess liquidity, low rates and a weaker US$ - until these trends change, the story remains the same. Commodity markets continue to rally impulsively from the 2020 lows signalling a bigger picture change in...

The risk-on sentiment continued last week as global equities continued to rally, the US$ declined, rates stabilised and commodities caught a bid. Bitcoin broke sharply lower from our ending diagonal over the weekend but is yet to confirm a change in trend. While global risk is extended near term, the everything bubble fuelled by low rates and excess liquidity remains in force until proven otherwise. It's always risky blowing bubbles so buyer beware. The SPX / ES continued to extend gains and...

Last week saw a continuation of the bullish equity market rally. The SPX and DJIA led the way breaking clear of new ATH's while the Nasdaq rallied to retest its ATH's. The Russell continued to lag as it remains trapped within a 4th wave correction. The DXY turned sharply lower from resistance while rates and Gold turned down from resistance. This week's CPI data will be instructive for the near term outlook for rates. Equity Markets The clearest equity market structure remains the Russell 2000...

The bull market rally continued as the series of corrective declines and impulsive rallies remain intact. Yes, the equity markets are extended, but as long as we continue to see higher highs and higher lows, the bulls remain in control. Despite the strong NFP on Friday, long bonds held support while the US$ weakened across the board. Commodities remain mixed with CL and RBOB leading the declines while Dr Copper rallied. Last week I tweeted a SPY chart showing the potential for an ending...

Last week saw another corrective decline in US equity markets within the bigger picture uptrend. The US$ pushed higher across the board in this risk off environment while rates were stable. Crude Oil confirmed its impulsive decline in 5 waves before recovering later in the week potentially setting up the next wave lower. This will likely have near term bearish implications for broader risk assets. This will be a holiday shortened week with NFP's so we are on alert for some near term...

Last week saw most equity indices push to marginal new highs before reversing lower. Markets may have topped in primary wave 3 but we do NOT have confirmation of a change in trend. Only the decline in ES appears impulsive while the RTY appears corrective. The Nasdaq was unable to break back above resistance as the Fed's "status quo" meeting saw rates continue to rise as markets call the Fed's bluff. We also saw a sharp reversal in Crude Oil that may be signalling more risk off ahead if we see...

Global equities extended gains last week as the risk-on environment continued. The reflation trade remains the focus as rates rise alongside commodities, helping push the Russell 2000 and DJIA through new ATH's as expected. The Nasdaq indices continue to lag with rates rising in the US. The US$ churned sideways in what is likely to be a 4th wave correction. All eyes will be on the Fed this week as bonds continued their impulsive decline. Rates and Gold are at important corrective inflection...

Last week started with a sharp corrective rally and continued wave (c) decline that met our downside targets. We have enough waves in place to complete the latest corrective decline. The question is whether the market pushes to new ATH's in a 5th wave or continues sideways to down for a larger degree wave 4. The nature of this rally (corrective or impulsive) will help answer that question. We see no evidence of a longer term top in global equities as bulls remain in control. Bond markets...

Last week we got the correction we were looking for after completion of another impulsive rally in equities. Importantly, while the decline in ES and RTY is clearly corrective, the decline in the Nasdaq indices appears impulsive. The bond market rout continued, dragging long duration risk assets lower with the TLT capitulating into structured support. The US$ reversed sharply higher late in the week, invalidating the near term bearish outlook - this resulted in a coincident topping in...

Last week we got the SPX / ES small degree 5th wave triangle thrust to marginal new highs as expected then a subsequent corrective decline that appears incomplete. The US$ turned lower as expected with the exception of the USDJPY that rallied from support to potentially complete an impulsive 5 waves up (potential change in trend). Bonds extended lower as expected with rates rising across the board while industrial commodities rallied. The Crypto buying frenzy continued. Equity Markets So far,...