The Mars Market Update — Live Research

The Fed-fuelled risk asset melt-up continues. Bears fumbled the ball last week as global equities continued to rotate higher following a corrective decline. We tweeted the corrective decline that led to Friday's push higher across the board. The SPX bear count is now at risk and what stands out since the June highs is the lack of downside follow through and triangles forming in the DJIA, Russell 2000, DAX, Eurostoxx and NKD. Triangles indicate consolidations before a final thrust in the...

Note: the CFTC data was delayed due to the Independence Day holiday. We will update when available. Last week, global equities rebounded sharply from support for what we expect to be wave c of (ii) / (b) retest of the June highs. Early this week, bears need to make a stand and defend major swing highs and reverse the recent rally. Our expectation remains that this will be the final leg of a counter-trend rally before the bear trend resumes. Any push to new cycle highs invalidates our base case...

Global equity markets remain in intermediate downtrends following the early June highs. Despite the negative news cycle, the primary equity indices remain above the June 15 lows and near term 50 day sma support. Our expectation remains that the initial decline was wave (i) / (a) of a larger decline as we look for another leg lower in wave (iii) / (c). Bonds continued to push higher while the US$ reversed its recent decline calling into question the near term structure. PM's continued to push...

Our base case remains that the early June highs marked an important swing high for risk assets. The impulsive decline from the highs is likely wave (a) / (i) of a larger decline - re remain bearish / defensive. Bonds remain bullish but could see an early week corrective decline. We have no confirmed top in Crude Oil and Brent so marginal new highs remain a possibility - if so, it should be an ending wave so we are alert to a bearish reversal. It is important to note the extreme bearish...

Bulls fumble badly as markets flip to risk-off. No evidence of a tradable low as near term support breaks. Last week, global markets saw a risk-off reversal as the proposed 3rd wave momentum driven rally failed (as tweeted). Last week's decline likely confirmed an a-b-c rally which opens the door for more bearish interpretations that complicates the outlook. Bonds confirmed our bullish outlook while the US$ saw a bullish reversal above critical support. The intermediate trend for risk assets...

The global equity market melt-up continued as the Nasdaq finally made new ATH's. This latest market rally appears to be a 3rd wave of an impulse. Friday's NFP driven rally invalidated many near term bearish momentum divergences as markets gapped higher. The US$, Bonds and PM's all sold off as expected while the risk-on rally took hold. Industrial commodities continued to extend gains with no evidence of a tradable top. The market is embracing this liquidity driven rally - only a close back...

Our big picture market outlook remains unchanged - we are looking for an impulsive 5 wave rally to new ATH's to complete the post-2009 rally. Deteriorating economic fundamentals, social mood and demographics coupled with historic system-wide leverage present the worst investment environment I have witnessed - central banks are holding the markets together with duct tape and a bazooka. Party like it's 1999 but this will not end well. SPX Weekly Near term, the global equity market rally...

Last week, global equity markets rebounded strongly following a corrective 3 wave decline testing recent cycle highs. Despite the negative macro economic news, central bank liquidity continues to support this risk-on environment. Rates and the US$ remain trapped within an intermediate term wave (b) triangle as we await a wave (c) thrust. Precious metals are showing signs of fatigue as bulls embrace an equities led recovery. The central bank solution to this COVID-19 disruption as been...

Last week, equities corrected lower from recent swing highs as expected with minimum downside targets met. The question is whether the corrective decline is complete for 2/B and markets push higher in wave 3/C or just "part" of a larger corrective decline? The US dollar and Bonds remain range bound as Fed printing continues to suppress volatility. The flood of liquidity lifts all boats as commodities ripped higher late last week - investors and traders alike are chasing risk assets despite...

Equity markets rebounded strongly last week led by FAAMG as the Nasdaq indices pushed to new cycle highs. The broader indices remain below prior swing highs opening the door to a bearish non-confirmation - bears need to make a stand here to reverse last week's gains as part of the intermediate term correction. From a bigger picture perspective, equities remain largely bullish given the impulsive rally off the March lows. Bonds, PM's and DXY all remain range bound and undecided if the Fed's...