The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equities continue to extend higher towards wave C initial Fib targets with little evidence of trend exhaustion. US dollar weakness continued with commodity currencies leading the way amid hopes of the reflation trade. Bonds remain in corrective declines and are attempting to rotate higher in wave 5. The PM's rallied from support in what is expected to be a 5th and final wave into the new year. Note that due to the holidays, the CFTC commitment of traders data is unavailable. Parabolic...

Please Note: I am travelling next week so may not be able to provide a formal update over the holiday period. I will continue to post important charts as time allows. Have a happy and safe holiday season! Last week, equities pushed to new ATH's as expected in what is potentially a 5th and final wave to this rally leading into the holidays. The wave C of (B) breakout remains in tact and there is no evidence of a tradable top. We will continue to track the internal subdivisions to try and...

Last week, equities fell sharply into support and reversed higher. We expect this decline was wave (iv) of an ongoing bull market trend with new highs likely on deck. Bonds failed to follow through to the upside complicating the near term structure. From a big picture perspective, we still see bonds in a larger 4th wave correction prior to a 5th wave push to new highs. US equities appear to have completed a small degree wave (iv) with wave (v) to marginal new ATH's on deck. Our analysis...

Please note: due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the CFTC has not yet published the COT data. We will update when the data is released. Last week we saw equities continue to grind higher in what we believe to be wave C of (B). Bonds continued to correct in what is likely wave (ii) of the larger wave 5 uptrend. PM's continue to hold support while Crude Oil, Natty Gas and Dr Copper all reversed lower. Deflationary real economy despite strong financial assets bid up by herding and Fed liquidity....

The global market melt-up continues unabated. The Fed's force feeding of liquidity continues to push asset prices to new ATH's - this, at a time when global economic growth continues to weaken. See our Macro Briefing Notes for details... The SPX / ES continues to thrust higher in what is likely to be a wave C of (B) rally. There has been no indication of weakness as the series of higher highs and lows continues - the very definition of a bullish trend. The fact that this rally is being fuelled...

Last week saw the continuation of the risk on theme as equities continued to push higher while bonds and PM's fell. The Fed's aggressive buying of short term securities has artificially steepened the yield curve and increased liquidity. The market is all-in with hope the Fed can keep this Ponzi scheme going despite deteriorating economic fundamentals. From a technical perspective, we continue to see this rally as part of a fake-out wave C of (B) high. The bulls have managed to maintain their...

Central banks continue to press lower interest rates and force-feed liquidity into the financial system in the "hope" that it makes its way into the real economy. It hasn't worked before and this time is no different. Do not confuse rising asset prices with economic wealth... it's an illusion of leverage. Last week, equities extended gains as expected and are now testing key resistance. Bonds failed to achieve our downside targets before rallying thus complicating the near term structural...

Last week, equities pushed higher to test new ATH's while bonds drifted lower but short of ideal targets. The US$ failed to confirm our bearish reversal (so far) and commodities remain range bound. This week has many potentially market moving events with the FOMC on deck (dovish expectations), Non Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing and heavy Treasury funding. The Fed will likely be key to whether markets can truly break higher this week or fail. Bitcoin was the biggest mover this week as it...

Global equities extended gains last week as the risk-on environment continued. US equities are testing triangle resistance and new ATH's. US bonds declined impulsively but the decline does not appear over. The US dollar finally broke lower impulsively to confirm a bigger picture change in trend. US equity markets are testing cycle highs with no evidence of a tradable top. We are currently testing near term resistance with 3 likely options: 1. Blue count: wave (B) has already topped as we look...