The Mars Market Update — Live Research

US equity markets continue to be defined by impulsive rallies and corrective declines. This week's FOMC meeting will be important (key risk) as the market expects the Fed to reiterate its dovish bias. Keep an eye on Gold and the Yen as they approach major range resistance - breakout or fakeout? Equities reversed higher after completing a corrective 3 waves down of equality spurred on by the Fed's "we've got your back" comments early in the prior week. US equities completed a strong bullish...

Last week, equity markets confirmed our immediately bearish case as the SPX and DJIA confirmed the Nasdaq and Russell's break of support. The Yen, Bonds and Crude also confirmed the bearish market break as expected. Tariff man appears intent on dragging the world into a global recession. The reason we could expect the risk-off environment to continue despite equities achieving minimum downside objectives is the rally in Yen and Bonds. Both have broken up and appear incomplete. The Yen broke...

The bears remain in control - US equity markets declined last week into strong near term support while Crude Oil finally broke lower from targeted resistance. The bond markets pushed to new cycle highs as expected and the US dollar rally may have ended. Be aware of heavy Treasury issuance at the end of this week ($50bln new money raised). The SPX and DJIA declined to retest the weekly lows and held while the higher beta indices (Nasdaq and Russell) made new cycle lows. Hope springs eternal but...

Last week, global equity markets staged a recovery from the Trump tariff decline as expected. US equity markets remain most at risk given the direct conflict with China (unless Trump retreats). So far, the rally has met the minimum expected targets in the 50% - 61.8% Fib retracement range. This is a key week for risk assets as the bears need to make a stand - the immediate bear case is invalidated at new ATH's. Our key risk metric, the USDCNH, remains below key 7.0 resistance - the dividing...

From our last Realvision report on 4th Feb 2019 Tactical Traders Market - "Despite the bearish fundamentals, the most likely outlook is for an eventual push to marginal new ATH's". Since that report, the Nasdaq and S&P500 have indeed made marginal new ATH's while the DJIA and Russell 2000 have lagged. Inter-market divergences at market extremes provide early warning signs for market momentum. We view markets through the prism of fundamentals, technicals and market sentiment. Trump's...

Risk markets were rocked this morning as Trump rolled a hand grenade into the China trade negotiations. The timing couldn't have been worse as traders pressed VIX shorts and equity longs pushed new ATH's. Traders are not positioned for an escalation in the tariff wars. This is the first test for equity market bulls. Last week we tweeted the ES / SPX likely completed wave iii of (v) as we looked for a corrective decline into the 2890 support area. The immediate bull trend remains in tact while...

The global risk-on environment continued with the SPX and DJIA on the cusp of following the Nasdaq to new ATH's (minimum expectations given the 2018 corrective decline). The Russell 2000 is at an important juncture with a strong close over 1600 potentially triggering a chase higher. The US Bonds impulsed higher after completing a corrective 3 waves down so the bearish case for rates continues. The US dollar pushed to marginal new cycle highs as expected but this week is important for follow...

The risk-on rally continued last week with global equity indices pushing higher. The US dollar remains well bid as it approaches key resistance while US bonds are at a key inflection point. The SPX / ES continues to impulse higher as it approaches new ATH's. The bull trend remains in tact until we see a change in character of the market. We continue to see this latest move higher as a 5th wave extension but there is no evidence of a tradable top. Only trade back below 2858 would weaken the...

Last week, we highlighted opportunities in the Bond, Gold and Yen markets and all appear to be playing out well. Global equities continue to trend higher towards new ATH's. Volatility and volume across ALL asset classes are near historical lows - complacency is extreme. The SPX / ES continues to impulse higher in what is expected to be wave (iii) of an extended 5th wave. The series of higher highs and lows continues - the very definition of a bullish trend as the market looks for new ATH's. ES...

Last week, equity market bulls held the opening gap and pushed to new cycle highs extending the series of higher highs and higher lows since the December 2018 lows. The bull trend continues to extend globally. The most important market event last week was the impulsive decline in US bond markets from their non-confirmation highs. This signals a near term change in trend for the bond markets confirmed by the impulsive decline in Gold. Bonds trended impulsively lower last week from recent swing...