The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginBrief Equity Market Update: Triangles
Elliott Wave Triangles usually occur in 4th waves. They occur when a market has rallied too far too fast and the market needs to correct time and price in a primary trend. The exponential SPX rally from August 2017 through to end January highlighted below is a perfect example of this structure. At this point we should explore more bearish potential structures in case we lose the February lows. It is concerning that good earnings are not being rewarded by the market - they are more often than...
MCP Market Update: April 30th, 2018 – Triangles
Last week, the US equity indices rallied after finding support highlighted in our most recent update. So far so good for the bulls as they remain in control while last week's lows hold. Remember Triangles can break both ways so stay nimble! Sometimes when the market speaks we should listen - last week we saw a series of very strong earnings reports but these stocks sold off after strong opens. When good news is sold on market darlings (eg; CAT, FANG, INTC, ETC) it is often an indicator of...
SPX / NDX Update
Today we got the down-draft we were looking for. So far, the decline is in 3 waves into support as anticipated by the Triangle count. The important thing now is what happens next - a strong SPX rally from the 2600-20 support zone likely sees our next upside target in the 2750 area which will once again act as a key inflection / resistance zone. An extended impulsive 5 wave decline here that is able to break the February lows will imply the bear case has taken hold. The Triangle is invalidated...
Nasdaq Update
Nasdaq appears to have formed an impulsive decline from last week's highs. Trade above last week's highs invalidates these near term counts and likely sees a push higher towards our next sell zone around 7000. Triangle - wave (a) likely complete with waves (b) up and (c) down to complete wave E of the bullish Triangle Bear - the bear count is wave (i) down likely complete now in wave (ii) up before a large selloff for wave (iii) that needs to break the 200 day sma and major trend support....
MCP Market Update: April 23rd, 2018 – Yields breaking out
Global equity markets continue to recover from the February lows and yields are breaking out while the US$ is threatening to reverse higher. This will have important implications for equities and commodities. I am not convinced that equities can continue to rally while yields are rising strongly... Late last week I posted SPX updated alternate structures (SPX Update) and key levels to watch following its reversal from our 2700-20 inflection zone. So far last week's decline appears to be in 3...
SPX Update
SPX turned lower from our 2700-20 resistance zone but held near term 2680 support. The rally from the April lows does not look impulsive so our primary counts remain the Bear and Triangle (both requiring further downside). The question is whether Wednesday marked the pivotal high or we have one more push higher towards 2750 (78.6% Fib and open gap). The Nasdaq and SPX look most likely to have topped but one day doesn't necessarily make a trend change although today's decline does look...
MCP Market Update: April 16th, 2018 – Risk Inflection Point
Following on from last week's interim update, neither the bulls nor bears have proven anything yet as we continue to wedge higher. We have not yet seen an impulsive decline to confirm a bearish reversal. All setups and structures remain unchanged. This update is an extension of what I posted on Thursday. Remember NO MAJOR SUPPORT has been broken so the alternative bullish scenario of a larger wave (4) triangle remains absolutely possible. I just wanted to make folks aware of the potential bear...
Risk Inflection Point
We are now approaching a near term risk inflection point for global markets (for the bear case highlighted last week). The key equity markets appear to be in the process of completing an ending diagonal wave (c) which should lead to a bearish reversal on Friday or early next week. We have already entered the sell zone in some indices but the wave structure would look more complete with one more push higher on Friday (not required). The bond markets, equities and USDJPY all appear aligned for a...
DXY update
We continue to track the evolving 4th wave triangle in the DXY. As we look for wave (d) and (e) to complete, this should set up a sharp move lower for the US$ - We are looking at this as an important inflection point for commodities and rates as we expect this final decline to be terminal before a multi-month recovery in the US$. A sharp decline for wave 5 will likely see commodities spike higher in what is likely to be an ending wave. This has many cross-market implications so we will...
USDJPY Update
We continue to track the USDJPY for a near term top. IF this count is correct we should have one more final push higher towards our 108 target where we should see a reversal lower. Trade above 108.50 likely means this structure is wrong (as wave iii would be the shortest wave which is not allowed under Elliott Wave). The question then arises whether this is: an Ending Diagonal (bearish) to complete wave (iv) and we decline impulsively to new lows for (v) of C (targets 103.00-104.20) a Leading...
