The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginMCP Market Update: July 9th, 2018 – Bears Fumble
Last week, despite (and perhaps because of) the negativity surrounding the trade wars, the bears dropped the ball. We failed to get the downside follow through we were looking for as the global equity indices closed strongly higher for the week. SPY / DIA / QQQ / IWM all had bullish engulfing candles for the week which calls into question the near term bearish counts. The question is whether this is the start of a new wave higher or a deeper counter-trend rally. As noted last week.... "What we...
MCP Market Update: July 1st, 2018 – Calm before the Storm
Last week we discussed our thesis for a potential market top in risk assets in "Has the Music Stopped?". In Part 2 - "Calm before the storm" we examine in more detail the potential market structures unfolding in global equity markets. We remain tactically bearish equities as we start to see more evidence of a potential change in trend. Last week, equity markets declined as expected with the market leaders (Nasdaq / Russell 2000) declining impulsively from new ATH's providing further evidence...
MCP Market Update: June 25th, 2018 – Has the Music Stopped?
Last week we warned of an impending equity market top as we moved tactically bearish. We now have a number of warning signs of a potential market top but we DO NOT yet have price confirmation of a change in trend (decline below the critical February low support). Our primary thesis remains that the bullish macro tailwinds that supported this post-GFC rally are turning into headwinds as liquidity is drainied from the system, global debt is peaking while global growth is slowing. All the while,...
MCP Market Update: June 17th, 2018 – Equities Topping?
As warned last week, the global central banks took centre stage with the Fed confirming its rate rising path, the ECB confirming an end to QE but no rate rises for the next 12 months and the BOJ only moderating QE. The expectation of rising US rates versus the rest of the world drove the US$ higher across the board causing commodities to finally crack as the hopium gave way to reality. As market participants adjust to new interest rate outlooks, they will now turn their focus to trade wars...
MCP Market Update: June 11th, 2018 – Resistance ahead
Last week, US equities pushed higher as expected with the Nasdaq indices joining the Russell in making new ATH's with only the SPX and Dow lagging. The European equities continue to struggle due to trade war concerns while the US$ corrected lower as expected. Later this week we have key market risk events including the FOMC (expected to hike), ECB and BOJ - couple that with significant liquidity settlements due at the end of the week and the risk-on rally will face significant headwinds from...
Brief Commodity Update: June 6th, 2018
Crude Oil may have formed a near term low with multiple momentum divergences, Fib support and impulsive rally off today's lows. Watching for a re-test of the red trend line break and then confluence of resistance in the 68.50-69.60 area. We are expecting near term US$ weakness so that will likely support CL. Dr Copper spiked above trend resistance but was rejected at 3.25 - trying to figure out if this is a triangle thrust higher or a H&S top - this is potentially an asymmetric setup right...
MCP Market Update: June 4th, 2018 – Bulls have the ball
US equity markets continue to look constructive with the Nasdaq now attempting to follow the Russell to new ATH's while the broader indices remain relatively weak. Bonds achieved our near term targets then sold off while the US$ may have topped near term. Crude continued its slide. If the bullish count is correct, the equity markets are primed for a strong push higher. The question is whether the broader markets can push to new ATH's in what is expected to be a 5th and final wave for this...
MCP Market Update: May 28th, 2018 – Crude and Bonds!
Last week we got the turns we had been looking for in Crude and Bonds. US equities held resistance but there are no signs of a bearish reversal so the jury is still out. Global equities reversed lower sharply. The US$ is showing signs of topping near term. US equity markets remain range bound from a bigger picture perspective with only the Russell 2000 pushing to new 2018 cycle highs. Market participants appear to be very complacent as shorts remain near cycle lows. I may sound like a broken...
Brief Market Update: May 24th, 2018 – Fractured Markets
US equity markets continue to hold resistance with the Dow and Russell declining impulsively from recent highs (most bearish). The Nasdaq and SPX are a little less clear and have more near term bullish options. Trade above this week's highs would invalidate the near term bear counts. Importantly, global equity indices such as the DAX and NKD declined impulsively from recent highs implying the near term trend is now down. This initial decline is either wave (a) down of a correction with wave...
MCP Market Update: May 21st, 2018 – Bull / Bear fight continues
Last week US equities stalled at resistance and corrected lower while global equities continued their respective rallies due to weaker domestic currencies. Bonds and Gold made new cycle lows while Crude Oil continued its rally. The US$ extended gains across the board. With Bond trader sentiment at extreme bearishness and downside targets met, we are looking for signs of a bullish turn. This weekend's narrative of "the trade war is over" has caused an early Sunday night spike in equity futures....
