The Mars Market Update — Live Research

We are now approaching a near term risk inflection point for global markets (for the bear case highlighted last week). The key equity markets appear to be in the process of completing an ending diagonal wave (c) which should lead to a bearish reversal on Friday or early next week. We have already entered the sell zone in some indices but the wave structure would look more complete with one more push higher on Friday (not required). The bond markets, equities and USDJPY all appear aligned for a...

We continue to track the evolving 4th wave triangle in the DXY. As we look for wave (d) and (e) to complete, this should set up a sharp move lower for the US$ - We are looking at this as an important inflection point for commodities and rates as we expect this final decline to be terminal before a multi-month recovery in the US$. A sharp decline for wave 5 will likely see commodities spike higher in what is likely to be an ending wave. This has many cross-market implications so we will...

We continue to track the USDJPY for a near term top. IF this count is correct we should have one more final push higher towards our 108 target where we should see a reversal lower. Trade above 108.50 likely means this structure is wrong (as wave iii would be the shortest wave which is not allowed under Elliott Wave). The question then arises whether this is: an Ending Diagonal (bearish) to complete wave (iv) and we decline impulsively to new lows for (v) of C (targets 103.00-104.20) a Leading...

CL and Brent have both tagged initial upside targets where we would look for a turn lower - The Brent chart shows a cleaner a-b-c retracement of equality after the initial decline.

ES failure to push higher towards our sell zone as per the latest update complicates matters. Either we are in a complex wave (b) which holds support then rallies up in wave (c) of 2 as per the update OR we just puke directly from here targeting new cycle lows towards 2450-60. Triangles are usually penultimate waves (4th or B waves) so the move out of the triangle is usually an ending move. Ideally, bulls hold key support and rally back to our targets for the wave (c) short setup. This is a...

Update April 10th, 2018 With Crude Oil and Brent potentially topping here, USDCAD tagged 50% retracement is approaching equality and the 200 day sma with a potentially completed 5 waves down - remaining shorts here are risky as we look for a wave 2/B counter-trend bounce.   April 6th, 2018 Friday is an important day for this pair with NFP and Canadian employment on deck. Prices are currently holding at the 50 day sma support with the 200 day coming in around 1.2640. Bears don't want...

I thought it would be helpful to understand this market volatility in the context of the big picture SPX wave counts. I see three primary counts and there remains the risk that this entire post-gfc rally is over as highlighted by the Bear count. Bear Case - Market top is in and we now trend lower. Requires a strong break of the 200 day sma and trend support to help confirm. 2. Bull Case - this case presumes that we are in a larger wave (4) correction with wave (5) up to new ATH's still to...