The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginMarket Update April 26th, 2016 – See the Whole Board
"A friend asked how I have become so patient in my trading - Macro Trading is like chess... you need to stand back and see the whole board" This week I'm going to focus on the big picture and likely paths forward in global markets. The global macro backdrop has not changed so this week's FOMC will be critical in determining the near term path for risk assets. I would expect Janet Yellen to continue the theme of lower interest rates (higher liquidity) for longer. We are at an inflection point...
Market Update: April 18th, 2016 – So Far So Good
So far so good on our bigger picture themes. US equities made new cycle highs as expected while the European and Asia indices played catch-up and rallied strongly as the US$ finally found some buyers at support. My thesis remains that while CB's around the world remain dovish there is no reason to fight liquidity. Equity markets around the world have only declined in 3 big picture CORRECTIVE waves since the 2015 highs. As long as these cycle lows hold I will remain bullish. I sound like a...
Market Update: April 11th, 2016 – Risk On or Risk Off?
The simple answer is I don't know but the markets are losing correlations across the board. Nothing much has changed in equities since my last update. The bull base case remains on track for new ATH's as markets squeeze the shorts and bears and the only pullback so far is in 3 waves. I have spent a lot of time reviewing equity markets over the weekend and my only conclusion is to stick with the trend until we see EVIDENCE of a reversal. There is no need to top tick the turn. The desire to be...
FXStreet Interview with Dale Pinkert – April 7th, 2016
FXStreet Interview with Dale Pinkert - April 7th, 2016
Market Update: April 4th, 2016 – Fractured Markets
Since my last market update where I reiterated my bullish stance, the US markets have continued grinding higher (direct result of Yellen's flipflop and deliberate weakening of the US$) at the expense of exporting countries like Germany (Dax) and Japan (Nikkei). The weaker US$ is the key here as Yellen has clearly signaled her intention to bail out China by joining the currency wars albeit belatedly. Unfortunately, the same folks that were bearish at 1800, 1950, 2000 and 2050 are still bearish...
Market Update: March 22nd, 2016 – Squeeeeze!
The equity market rally continues unabated confirming our base case bullish wave count. Yellen's FOMC flipflop added more fuel to the bullish fire in an attempt to weaken the US$ and bail out China. The primary flashpoint for this decline was the concern that China and the emerging markets would wilt under the pressure of a rising US$. While everyone was calling for a crash and panicking at 1800, we had a clear trading plan to get long. That is the advantage of understanding market structure -...
Market Update: March 14th, 2016 – No “Mission Accomplished” Yet
Our outstanding market run for 2016 continued last week as equity markets dropped into our 1960-65 ES support zone (LOD 1958) and rallied another 50pts to reclaim the 200 sma. Our emphasis on focusing on price structure and staying on the long side of the trade continues to pay off while the bears got crushed. This week is likely to be critical for the longer term direction of the market with another FOMC meeting. While some bulls are now pronouncing "mission accomplished" in the manner of...
Market Update: March 7th, 2016 – Hold the fish loosely
Hold the fish loosely, Jed, or it's gonna flop right out of your hands Abby Bartlet - WestWing That's how I feel about these markets right now. Mars be nimble, Mars be quick... "Play the wedge" - Pattern recognition and acute awareness of correlated markets helps us stay on the right side of the trade. We are now at an important inflection point with a significant cluster of resistance overhead. Price does appear extended as we approach some significant technical resistance but there are NO...
Market Update: February 29th, 2016
So far so good. Since my last update, we have seen a strong rally in equities and the US$ coupled with weaker bonds and gold all representing my expected "risk-on" trade. We have now arrived at a key juncture and first real test for the markets. While I expect near-term weakness in global equity markets I remain longer term bullish while the February lows hold. A strong CLOSE below that and all bets are off. That is my line in the sand. The equity markets have run head-long into overhanging...
Market Update: February 15th, 2016 – The lows are in
Last week's market update highlighted the need for a final 5th wave to marginal new lows across the broad equity market indices. With downside targets met and enough waves in place for a completed structure we are now long against last week's lows. What we need to see now is an impulsive rally from the lows. So far so good. Now that we appear to have a completed pattern to the downside, the next big question is whether or not the correction is complete and we head to new ATH's for a large...
