The Mars Market Update — Live Research
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FXStreet Interview with Dale Pinkert - April 7th, 2016
Market Update: April 4th, 2016 – Fractured Markets
Since my last market update where I reiterated my bullish stance, the US markets have continued grinding higher (direct result of Yellen's flipflop and deliberate weakening of the US$) at the expense of exporting countries like Germany (Dax) and Japan (Nikkei). The weaker US$ is the key here as Yellen has clearly signaled her intention to bail out China by joining the currency wars albeit belatedly. Unfortunately, the same folks that were bearish at 1800, 1950, 2000 and 2050 are still bearish...
Market Update: March 22nd, 2016 – Squeeeeze!
The equity market rally continues unabated confirming our base case bullish wave count. Yellen's FOMC flipflop added more fuel to the bullish fire in an attempt to weaken the US$ and bail out China. The primary flashpoint for this decline was the concern that China and the emerging markets would wilt under the pressure of a rising US$. While everyone was calling for a crash and panicking at 1800, we had a clear trading plan to get long. That is the advantage of understanding market structure -...
Market Update: March 14th, 2016 – No “Mission Accomplished” Yet
Our outstanding market run for 2016 continued last week as equity markets dropped into our 1960-65 ES support zone (LOD 1958) and rallied another 50pts to reclaim the 200 sma. Our emphasis on focusing on price structure and staying on the long side of the trade continues to pay off while the bears got crushed. This week is likely to be critical for the longer term direction of the market with another FOMC meeting. While some bulls are now pronouncing "mission accomplished" in the manner of...
Market Update: March 7th, 2016 – Hold the fish loosely
Hold the fish loosely, Jed, or it's gonna flop right out of your hands Abby Bartlet - WestWing That's how I feel about these markets right now. Mars be nimble, Mars be quick... "Play the wedge" - Pattern recognition and acute awareness of correlated markets helps us stay on the right side of the trade. We are now at an important inflection point with a significant cluster of resistance overhead. Price does appear extended as we approach some significant technical resistance but there are NO...
Market Update: February 29th, 2016
So far so good. Since my last update, we have seen a strong rally in equities and the US$ coupled with weaker bonds and gold all representing my expected "risk-on" trade. We have now arrived at a key juncture and first real test for the markets. While I expect near-term weakness in global equity markets I remain longer term bullish while the February lows hold. A strong CLOSE below that and all bets are off. That is my line in the sand. The equity markets have run head-long into overhanging...
Market Update: February 15th, 2016 – The lows are in
Last week's market update highlighted the need for a final 5th wave to marginal new lows across the broad equity market indices. With downside targets met and enough waves in place for a completed structure we are now long against last week's lows. What we need to see now is an impulsive rally from the lows. So far so good. Now that we appear to have a completed pattern to the downside, the next big question is whether or not the correction is complete and we head to new ATH's for a large...
Market Update: February 9th, 2016
Well, since my last update the US Equity markets have continued their C wave declines into pre-defined support. The US 30yr Bond triangle broke to the upside as expected and the US$ continues to whipsaw within its 4th wave structure. Meanwhile, my live tweeting of key support and resistance levels have held well for counter-trend trading opportunities. So far a solid start to 2016. To the global equity markets and risk-off continues to be the theme. While my initial downside targets have been...
Market Update: January 13th, 2016 – Happy New Year!
Happy New Year and welcome to 2016. If the first week is any indication, it should be a wild ride this year. My focus for the early part of 2016 is on the big picture structure of equities, US Treasuries, US$ and commodities. The Macro environment surrounding this remains weak global demand as total debt continues to expand post-GFC, excess supply of base commodities, currency competition between nations amidst a global deflationary backdrop. 2015 heralded the top of wave 3 and onset of a big...
Market Update: November 30th, 2015 – Approaching key US$ and commodity turn
Global equity markets continue to be range bound throughout 2015 with the driving factor the "corrective" decline from ATH's. This presumes that we will ultimately see new ATH's before this multi-year rally is over. My base case (blue count) was the initial decline from 2134 to 1867 was wave A of (4) but we must respect the seasonal patterns and near term market structure which has kept the door open to new ATH's for the Santa rally (red count). Either way, I expect new ATH's to represent wave...
