The weekly macro brief for w/c 25 February 2019 – Several key events will be in focus this week;
1.US President Trump will meet with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Vietnam. While not directly related to the markets, headlines could impact sentiment.
2. US Fed Chairman Powell will provide testimony on monetary policy to the US Senate over two days.
3. USTR Lighthizer will also provide testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee on the progress of trade talks. Progress on US-China talks will be of interest as well as any possible commentary regarding the s.232 investigation.
4. Brexit – although the meaningful vote was postponed until 12 Mar, there could still be a vote this week that results in a delay to Brexit if an amended deal is not completed by 13 Mar 2019.
It will be a big week of data for the US. Of most interest will be Q4 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure and price data. Housing data will also be released including house prices, pending home sales and housing starts. US manufacturing will remain in focus – ISM manufacturing PMI for Feb, final Markit manufacturing PMI for Feb, durable goods orders (full report) and regional manufacturing surveys.
US Fed speeches will feature heavily throughout the week including a further speech by Chairman Powell later in the week.
There will be heavier supply of treasuries settling this week with the US Treasury settling approx. $319bn in bills, notes and TIP’s. Its also month end and approx. $12.3bn in securities on the Fed balance sheet will mature of which $5.82bn will be reinvested.
There will several other important data releases this week, as we continue to track slower manufacturing and production activity;
PMI’s for China, Canada and UK manufacturing for Feb as well as the final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone for Feb.
Japan industrial production data for Jan and final manufacturing PMI for Feb.
More detail is provided in the full briefing document – you can download the file here;
Key releases from w/c 18 February will be incorporated into the Macro Review for w/c 25 February.
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
