by Kim | Dec 15, 2025
The key events for the w/c 15 December 2025: Central Bank Decisions – ECB, BoE, and BoJ, US Fed Waller speech, US data: employment situation, retail sales, & CPI, Global CPI reports, S&P prelim PMIs (Dec)
The Recap from Last Week: Central Banks Find Their Own Path
The central bank decisions last week by the FOMC, the RBA, and the BoC continued to highlight policy divergence in response to local pressures. While a broad theme of caution and pause underlies all three decisions, each bank is responding more to specific national nuances as they approach, and now pause at, respective “neutral” policy levels. With its latest rate cut to further mitigate downside risks to employment, the FOMC signalled a pause after hitting a “plausible” neutral range. In contrast, the RBA stayed on hold, while sounding a warning on upside inflation risks. Finally, the BoC remained on hold, reaffirming that its policy rate was “at about the right level” as it manages the complex structural trade adjustment. These three decisions set the stage for the final key meetings of the year from the BoE, ECB, and BoJ this week.
FOMC: Rate Cut Arrives at a Plausible Neutral Range
SUMMARY: The FOMC cut the FFR by 25bps as expected to 3.5% – 3.75%, and now judges policy as within a range of “plausible estimates of neutral”. Chair Powell confirmed that “we’ve been sort of moving in the direction of neutral”, setting up the shift in guidance to signal a pause here “to see how the economy evolves”. The primary risk leading up to the next meeting is a deterioration in the labor market. While key US labor market data continues to catch up after the shutdown – and with Oct & Nov data due this week, Fed Chair Powell has warned over the challenge of data distortions.
DETAIL: The Fed decision was split 9-3 in favour of a cut (one member preferred a 50bps cut, and two preferred to hold (citing inflation and data uncertainty), highlighting the still divided nature of the policy debate.
Given the arrival at a more neutral setting, the cumulative cuts in the cycle so far, and a more constructive outlook for 2026, the key shift was the signal of a pause: “We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves”. Guidance shifted to a more neutral bias, while keeping the door open to modest easing over the next two to three years. This marked a shift from the risk management bias (“considering additional adjustments”) to more of a data-dependent approach, “judging the extent and timing of additional adjustments” – reflecting less certainty over how many cuts and when.
With the cut, the FOMC continued to manage its dual mandate trade-off by prioritizing the “further cooling” in the labor market over inflation that had come in a “touch lower”. Chair Powell noted that he expects unemployment might “kick up one or two more tenths,” but that the cuts to date would help to stabilize unemployment, and that he isn’t expecting a sharper downturn. This suggests that an unemployment rate exceeding the projected year-end rate of 4.5% by more than two tenths could be a trigger for another cut leading up to the Jan meeting.
While risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside for unemployment, the projections for 2026 were somewhat more constructive: solid growth, inflation easing, and unemployment easing. Powell stated, “So it looks like the baseline would be solid growth next year.”
The outlook for the FFR in the dot plot projects modest easing over the next two to three years, with the long-term (LT) neutral rate unchanged at 3%. Near-term dispersion is notable: the median projection for the FFR in 2026 suggests at least one rate cut, but there are twelve members projecting a lower FFR (by between one and six rate cuts), four see a hold through 2026, and three see potential for a hike. Powell firmly ruled out a hike being on the table at this point.
RBA: Hold With Inflation Risks Tilted to the Upside
SUMMARY: The RBA stayed on hold at this meeting as expected, and it was a unanimous decision. The Board elevated its concern over inflation, noting that recent data suggests “inflation risks have tilted to the upside” – a key shift at this meeting. The primary risk remains the Q4 trimmed mean inflation rate and domestic capacity pressures that could position the Feb meeting as live for a hike.
DETAIL: Stronger-than-expected inflation, combined with stronger-than-expected activity in Q3, has fuelled concerns over the inflation outlook. The Board noted “uncertainty over the extent to which monetary policy remains restrictive”, with the RBA Governor adding that the effects of recent cuts are still to be fully transmitted through the economy, potentially adding further to demand.
The Board did not consider a rate cut at this meeting, “given what’s happening with underlying momentum in the economy that it does look like additional cuts are not needed”. While the case for a rate rise was not explicitly considered, the Board did discuss how conditions would need to evolve if rates “had to rise again at some point next year” – we’ll await the Minutes for details on this discussion.
Guidance shifted to a more near-term, cautious bias, given that it would take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. The Q4 CPI was explicitly noted as a key report leading up to the next meeting, to help answer whether the larger-than-expected Q3 trimmed mean was “due to unrelated, one-off factors, or was it demonstrating some underlying capacity pressures in the economy”? The latest SoMP has the trimmed mean inflation rate lifting to +3.2% in Q4 (from +3% in Q3 – which was higher than the SoMP forecast of +2.7%). A reading above the projected Q4 QoQ trimmed mean inflation of +0.8% could trigger concerns for the RBA, suggesting Feb could be a live meeting for a hike. Current market pricing (12 Dec) has a rate hike priced by around Jul 2026. While the RBA is waiting on the Q4 CPI report, its assessment of inflationary pressure will incorporate broader measures of capacity pressures, labour market tightness, and financial conditions. The latest Nov labor market report was published after the meeting with mixed results, even though the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.
BOC: Holding at “About the Right Level”
SUMMARY: The BoC kept policy settings unchanged at this meeting as expected. The decision was unanimous. The key signalling was that the Bank continues to see the current policy rate “at about the right level” to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Holding the policy rate unchanged at the lower end of the neutral range was seen as appropriate, having already delivered significant policy easing. However, the key risk remains supporting the economy, balancing growth and inflation, through the structural trade adjustment.
DETAIL: The Bank suggests economic slack, caused by the structural reconfiguration of trade, is acting to “offset” the cost pressures associated with that reconfiguration. The BoC emphasized that “this is more than a cyclical downturn—it’s a structural transition. Monetary policy cannot restore lost supply. But it can help the economy adjust as long as inflation is well controlled”. The current stickiness of core inflation, despite the economic slack, creates some caution for the Bank while it balances support for the Canadian economy amid nascent signs of stabilization. Despite several upside surprises in recent GDP and unemployment data, there remains a great deal of uncertainty over the path of the economy.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank Decisions – ECB, BoE, and BoJ, US Fed Waller speech, US data: employment situation, retail sales, & CPI, Global CPI reports, S&P prelim PMIs (Dec)
To close out the year, it’s going to be a big week of central bank decisions, important US data beginning to catch up (non-farm payrolls, CPI, retail sales), global inflation reports (UK, Canada, Euro-area, and Japan), and the prelim S&P PMIs for Dec.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Key central bank decisions part 2 and speeches
Bank of England (BoE)
- Expected Action: Markets are expecting the BoE to cut rates by 25bps.
- Decision Focus: After the extremely divided decision at the last meeting, the focus will be on the assessment of the balance of risks (less pronounced inflation risks versus slack building in the economy), as well as any shift in the assessment of policy restrictiveness. The BoE was waiting on additional evidence on the inflation outlook, as well as the budget release, before assessing further rate cuts.
- A further CPI (Nov) and labour market report (3-mth Oct) will be released before the meeting.
European Central Bank (ECB)
- Expected Action: The ECB is expected to keep the Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) unchanged at 2% at this meeting.
- Guidance focus: remains meeting by meeting. ECB President Lagarde recently reaffirmed that “we are in a good place” in regard to activity and policy settings in the Euro area. However, there could be some shift in signalling related to the balance of risks and the inflation and growth outlook, with the release of the latest forecasts.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ)
- Expected Action: Based on speeches over the last several weeks, there is some expectation that the BoJ could hike rates by 25bps as early as this meeting.
- The latest National CPI report for Nov will be released around the time of the meeting.
The US Federal Reserve
- There will be several speeches this week; however, the key speech will be Fed Governor Waller on the Economic Outlook. This will be an important speech outlining Waller’s view on the US economy and the appropriate policy approach.
US labor market data catch-up
This week will feature the key employment situation report for Oct & Nov as well as weekly claims data. Note that the US labor market data for Oct & Nov will be released earlier in the week than usual, on Tue 16 Dec. Most of this data will still likely reflect the effects of the US govt shutdown.
- Non-farm payrolls for Nov are expected to increase by 35k, after +119k in Sept.
- The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.4%.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 Dec are expected to be little changed at 230k (from 236k in the week prior). The trend of continuing claims fell notably in the week ending 29 Nov – likely reflecting the short holiday week as well as normalization after the end of the shutdown.
US Inflation and spending data
- US retail sales for Oct are expected to increase by +0.2%, little changed from +0.2% in Sep. The control group (feeds into the GDP calculation) is expected to increase by +0.2% after falling in Sep. Data is likely to remain subdued as a result of the shutdown.
- US CPI for Nov is expected to increase to +3.2% over the year, up from +3% in Oct. Core CPI is also expected to increase to +3.2% in Nov, from +3% in Oct.
Global CPI reports – Nov
- Canada: headline CPI for Nov is expected to lift back up to +2.4% from +2.2% in Oct. Headline CPI ex gasoline was unchanged at +2.6% in Oct and is expected to remain little changed in Nov. The BoC measures of underlying inflation have shifted lower again and are expected to be unchanged at +2.9% and +3% for the median and trimmed mean, respectively.
- UK CPI core CPI for Nov is expected to be unchanged at +3.4%.
- Euro area CPI (final) for Nov is expected to be confirmed at +2.2% for headline inflation and at +2.4% for core inflation.
- Japan National CPI is expected to be unchanged, with the main BoJ measure of core CPI ex fresh food expected to be +3% in Nov, the same as Oct.
NZ Q3 GDP is expected to increase by +0.9% QoQ, reversing the sharp fall of -0.9% QoQ in Q2.
The prelim S&P PMIs for Dec will be released early this week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $591bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $36bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 20-year Bond and 5-year TIPS this week, to settle on 31 Dec.
Approx $9.1bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Reserve Management Purchase (RPM) operations recommenced last week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Dec 8, 2025
The key events for w/c 8 December 2025: Central Bank Decisions: FOMC, RBA, BoC, Aus Labour Market for Nov, US data: ECI Q3, JOLTS Oct.
The Recap from Last Week – US Data Supports Risk Management Bias
The market widely expects the FOMC to deliver a further rate cut this week, despite the previous decision revealing “strongly differing views” for the Dec meeting. Despite the presence of two-sided risks and “no risk-free path” for the Fed, the risks from cooling labor market conditions have underpinned the recent decisions to ease policy. The data flow leading up to the meeting this week is still likely to support the Fed’s risk management bias, highlighting a backdrop characterized by resilient, albeit sluggish growth, stalled progress on inflation, and evidence that the labor market continues to cool and remains “susceptible to negative shocks”.
Cooling Labor Market Conditions Persist
Cooling conditions in the US labor market have been the key area of concern for the FOMC. Despite a lack of government data since the last meeting, private sector reports likely provide enough direction to maintain that risk management bias.
- The ADP report showed another 32k jobs shed in Nov, particularly in manufacturing and professional services. This contrasted with the recent Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey, which did see a fall in Nov after the elevated number of job cuts announced in Oct.
- The Fed will lean heavily on the most recent Beige Book survey, which showed a slight decline in employment and weaker labor demand, with firms relying on hiring freezes, attrition, and adjusted hours rather than mass layoffs.
- The most recent initial and continuing claims data continue to normalize after the shutdown. Crucially, continuing claims have drifted lower post-shutdown, but remain at an elevated level, highlighting the susceptibility of the labor market to a negative shock.
- The latest Nov S&P PMIs showed some resilience (employment growth steepest in three months in manufacturing and services). But this was countered by the still downbeat view of employment from the ISM surveys – especially in manufacturing.
- The latest JOLTS data for Oct is due this week, with the full Employment Situation report for Nov to be released next week as part of the data catch-up.
Inflation Momentum Contained by Margin Compression
While lagging data suggests progress on inflation has stalled above the 2% target, more recent survey data suggests momentum may be contained by firm-level caution over pricing and competitive pressures.
- PCE Inflation – catch-up release: The Sep report is a significantly lagging datapoint, but it did confirm the concern that inflation progress has stalled: headline PCE inflation hit a YTD high of +2.8%, moving well above the +2.3% recorded a year ago. Core PCE edged down from its Aug YTD high to +2.8% in Sep, and is on par with the rate recorded a year ago, strengthening concerns that inflation progress has stalled.
- The Beige Book: However, surveys suggest some weakness in pricing power. The latest Beige Book showed input prices still increased moderately and were not limited to tariffs. However, there were “multiple reports” that firms had absorbed these increases for now. The outlook for plans to raise prices in the near term was mixed.
- The latest S&P PMIs showed manufacturing firms continued to absorb rising input prices. While services sector inflation increased to “the greatest degree since May”, increases in selling prices remained below recent peaks. The ISM surveys showed price increases remained broadly elevated, but little changed in the manufacturing sector and became less widespread in the services sector.
Activity: Downshifted but Resilient
Amidst persistent cost pressures and the government shutdown, activity has remained resilient, though downshifted to a more sluggish pace.
- The Beige Book reported that economic activity was ‘little changed’ across most districts, noting weakness in consumer spending, resilient manufacturing activity, and “flat-to-down” revenue in the services sector.
- The latest S&P PMIs for Nov showed growth momentum had remained broadly moderate and unchanged from Oct, as solid services sector activity helped to offset some weakness in manufacturing demand.
Central Bank Previews – Focus on Policy Outlook
- The FOMC: While a further rate cut is expected by the FOMC this week, the decision will be important for its signalling on the outlook. There was a notable division at the last meeting on the current policy stance, between those who thought policy was still restrictive and needed to move toward neutral and those who thought policy was “not clearly restrictive”, supporting a slower cadence of cuts. The latest projections should reflect how policymakers have shifted their views on the path of rates, as well as expectations for the economy.
- The RBA meets this week – and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. This will also be an important meeting, not so much for the decision, but for the parsing of recent data (firmer inflation, stronger labour market, and solid growth) and the implications for the outlook. At the last meeting, the RBA Governor noted that the recent data flow has led to increased uncertainty over the assessment that monetary policy remains a “little restrictive”. Based on the data flow since then, markets have removed rate cuts from the outlook and even started to price in the chances of a hike. The signalling in this decision will be important for the outlook.
- Finally, the BoC will also meet this week and is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. At the last meeting, the BoC signalled that it saw its policy rate of 2.25% as “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%”. The latest Canadian labor market report for Nov confirmed a firming trend in employment growth, while the unemployment rate stepped notably lower from 6.9% to 6.5%.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank Decisions: FOMC, RBA, BoC, Aus Labour Market for Nov, US data: ECI Q3, JOLTS Oct.
The focus shifts firmly to central bank decisions this week, including the FOMC, RBA, and BoC. While the decisions are widely expected to be clear-cut, the signalling on policy stance and the implications for the outlook will be in focus for markets.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Key central bank decisions
US Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC)
- Expected Action: Markets are expecting the FOMC to cut rates again this week to: 3.5% – 3.75%
- Decision Focus: Details of the decision will be in focus – the status of the decision (still a risk management cut?), the balance of risks to the outlook (labor market versus inflation bias?), and changes to the degree of dissent/division among committee members on the policy stance compared to the previous meeting.
- Forward Guidance: The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released. In focus will be any change to the cadence of policy easing as well as updates to the outlook for growth, inflation, and the labor market. Expect uncertainty to be elevated given the lack of data, effects of post-shutdown normalization on the economy, and fiscal impacts in early 2026.
- Post-meeting speeches will also be in focus.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
- Expected Action: The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting this week.
- Signalling Focus: Details of the decision will be a key focus – especially around how recent firmer data may change the Board’s view on the current policy stance (previously, “increased uncertainty” over whether policy was a “little restrictive”).
- Domestic Data: The Nov labour market survey is expected to show continued growth in employment of +20k, down from +42k in Oct. The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up to 4.4% from 4.3% in Oct.
The Bank of Canada (BoC)
- Expected Action: The BoC is expected to keep policy settings unchanged at this meeting at 2.25%.
US labor market data
- Ahead of the release next week of the up-to-date Employment Situation report for Nov, the latest JOLTS data for Oct will be released this week. Job openings for Oct are expected to be 7.2m in Oct, little changed from 7.22m in Sep. This report will provide our first read on any shift to the low-hiring/low-firing dynamic of the US labor market.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 6 Dec are expected to increase slightly to 221k from 191k wk ending 29 Nov, which reflected the short week for Thanksgiving. The trend of continuing claims will be in focus for the wk ending 29 Nov, given the recent downshift post-shutdown.
- Data catch-up: US Employment Cost Index Q3: QoQ expecting +0.9%, unchanged from +0.9% in Q2.
- The catch-up international trade data for Sept will be released this week (BEA), with the release of the initial estimate of US Q3 GDP growth pushed out to 23 Dec.
Updated US data release schedules
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) schedule page can be found here.
- The US Census Bureau page can be found here.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $502bn in ST Bills, with a net paydown of $38bn. The US Treasury will also auction the 30-year Bond, 3-year, and 10-year Notes this week – all will settle next week on 15 Dec.
Approx $11bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Dec 1, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 1 December 2025: Fed Chair Powell speech, ISM PMIs, Global S&P PMIs, catch-up US data: personal spending, income & PCE inflation for Sep.
The Recap from Last Week
At its meeting next week, the Fed faces the challenge of assessing a still incomplete set of data while disentangling the shutdown’s noise from the underlying signal of economic activity. While the end of the government shutdown suggests a rebound in activity is expected, the underlying narrative from last week’s US data was negative: sluggish activity, pockets of inflation, weakening sentiment, and continued cooling in the labor market. For the Fed, this confluence of distorted data and negative underlying signals likely builds the case for another risk management cut. Market pricing is now clearly reflecting an increased probability of a cut next week.
Surveys & Data – Sluggish Activity
The Fed’s Beige Book provided a broad backdrop of sluggish activity over the last six weeks. The report noted that most Fed districts had recorded little change in economic activity since the last report (reported before the Oct FOMC meeting). Overall retail spending had declined further, reflecting some cautious discretionary spending. Some districts noted a negative impact on consumers from the government shutdown, and community organizations saw increased demand for food assistance due to disrupted benefits during the shutdown. Furthermore, the catch-up retail sales report for Sep showed nominal retail sales growth had already slowed leading into the government shutdown, with real retail sales falling in the month.
The Beige Book reported some optimism among manufacturers in the outlook. However, this optimism was countered by the two regional activity surveys for Chicago and Dallas, which showed manufacturing activity had slipped further into contraction in Nov. The Beige Book also reported that “revenues in the nonfinancial services sector were mostly flat to down” – a finding that contrasts with the more recent services PMI reports.
Input Price Inflation Persisted
The absence of official government inflation data leading up to the next Fed meeting has complicated the assessment of the dual mandate risks. Nevertheless, the Beige Book highlighted widespread rising input prices affecting both retail and manufacturing firms. While some of these costs were tariff-related, firms also cited rising prices for insurance, utilities, technology, and healthcare. These inflationary impulses seemed to be countered by a lack of firms’ pricing power. Although firms expect “upward cost pressures to persist,” plans to raise prices in the near-term were mixed. Critically, “margin compression” was noted multiple times, indicating that the extent of pass-through of these higher input costs was limited by competitive pressures, demand, and client pushback.
Sentiment Weakened
The sluggish activity and cautious outlook of firms in the Beige Book was mirrored by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey for Nov. The headline measures of confidence all fell in Nov, with the report reflecting ongoing consumer concerns over inflation, tariffs, and politics, with an increase in mentions of the government shutdown. Since the survey cut-off was just days after the shutdown ended, some rebound in sentiment is possible in the Dec report.
Aside from the temporary nature of the shutdown concern, there were enduring themes leading to weaker sentiment in Nov. The report highlighted weakening labor market conditions (with another fall in the key labor market differential), weakening expectations in the outlook for the labor market and household income, and enduring concerns related to prices, inflation, and tariffs in the write-in responses.
Weakening Labor Market Conditions
For the Fed, one of the more important insights concerns weakening labor market conditions. At this stage, this factor is likely to influence the Fed’s decision calculus regarding another risk management cut to a greater degree than the persistence of inflation.
The Beige Book clearly highlighted that employment had declined, albeit slightly, during the inter-meeting period. The labor market dynamic still seemed little changed from the recent low/cautious hiring, but low firing environment, despite the recent increase in layoff announcements. Firms have adapted to the more sluggish and uncertain conditions by adjusting hours worked and managing headcount via hiring freezes, attrition, and replacement-only appointments.
This low-hiring/low-firing dynamic is also still reflected in the most recent initial and continuing claims data, though the latter remains distorted by the government shutdown. Initial claims have continued to ease, including a notable slowdown in initial claims from Federal government employees. At the same time, continuing claims have remained elevated, near cycle highs, keeping the labor market susceptible to a negative shock. The latest week of data for continuing claims (wk ending 15 Nov) still reflects the government shutdown and includes a notable number of furloughed Federal workers, which should begin to revert after next week’s report.
Outside of the US
The inaugural Aus monthly CPI for Oct came in higher than expected – and continued to reinforce the RBA’s on-hold status. Headline CPI increased by +3.9% in Oct, up from +3.6%, while the trimmed mean inflation rate increased by +3.3% in Oct, also up from +3.2% in Sept.
The Tokyo CPI remained firm for Nov (a leading indicator for the National CPI in Nov), while retail spending growth and industrial production also increased.
The RBNZ cut rates by 25bps as expected. The decision highlighted that a further cut would help support an enduring recovery, underpin consumer and business confidence, and still meet the inflation goal. The outgoing head of the RBNZ noted that there was now a “high hurdle” for further rate cuts (source: Bloomberg)
Outlook for the week ahead: Fed Chair Powell speech, ISM PMIs, Global S&P PMIs, catch-up US data: personal spending, income & PCE inflation for Sep.
The week ahead will continue to focus on the catch-up of US data. One of the key reports will be the US PCE inflation data for Sep as a part of the personal spending and income report. While a lagging report, its importance is heightened because consistent inflation data has largely been absent from the broader economic narrative over the last six weeks. Amid the focus on weakening activity and a cooling labor market, the inflation side of the dual mandate has felt like a missing piece of the assessment. Other US catch-up reports for Sep will include factory orders and import/export prices.
This would usually have been the week for official US jobs data; however, the updated Employment Situation data is still several weeks away. This week, we will instead receive the monthly ADP as well as the Challenger Job Cut Announcements for Nov. Other US reports that will be in focus this week will be the ISM surveys for Nov.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Fed Chair “brief remarks” within the blackout period
- There are several speeches noted in the official calendar despite this being the blackout period ahead of the Fed meeting next week – see the official Fed calendar.
- Fed Chair Powell is expected to give “brief remarks” and take part in a panel discussion. It’s unlikely he’ll cover the economic outlook given the blackout conditions.
- Vice Chair (Supervision), Bowman, will also give testimony this week.
US catch-up data and partial Nov labor market data
- Data catch-up: US headline PCE inflation for Sep is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month, up slightly from +0.26% in Aug. The annual rate is expected to increase to +2.8% from +2.7% in Aug. Core PCE inflation is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month, unchanged from Aug. The annual core PCE inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at +2.9% in Sep.
- Data catch-up: Personal income is expected to increase by +0.4% in Sep, unchanged from +0.4% in Aug. Personal spending is expected to increase by +0.2% in Sep, down from +0.6% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: Factory Orders for Sep are expected to increase by +0.2%, down from +1.4% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: US import and export prices for Sep.
- The ISM PMIs: the headline manufacturing PMI is expected to be little changed at 48.6, while the services PMI is expected to slow slightly to 52.1.
- US labor market data: the ADP monthly employment change is expected to slow to +20k in Nov, from +42k in Oct. The Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey for Nov is expected to fall after the notable increase to 153k in Oct.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 29 Nov are expected to remain little changed at 218k, after falling to 216k in the prior week. The continuing claims will be in focus for the wk ending 22 Nov – and could start to see furloughed Federal workers roll off the claims data. Continuing claims came in at 1.960m in the week ending 15 Nov.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment – the prelim read for Dec should highlight the degree of any rebound from the end of the government shutdown.
Updated US data release schedules
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) schedule page can be found here.
- The US Census Bureau page can be found here.
European inflation and growth data
- The prelim Euro area CPI for Nov is expected to firm. Headline CPI is expected to increase to +2.2% in Nov, up from +2.1% in Oct. Core CPI is also expected to increase to +2.5% in Nov, up from +2.4% in Oct.
- Euro area GDP for Q3 is expected to be confirmed at +0.2% over the quarter, and employment growth at +0.1% over the quarter.
Canada’s labour market survey for Nov is expected to show stalled employment growth of -7k after a notable increase of +66k in Oct. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 7% in Nov from 6.9% in Oct.
Australian GDP for Q3 is expected to increase by +0.7% over the quarter (QoQ), up from +0.6% in Q2.
The full suite of global S&P PMIs for Nov will be released this week, providing an update on activity and momentum midway through Q4.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $691bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $66bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $30bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $2.7bn in Notes and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and be redeemed (from Nov). The QT program will end as of 1 Dec.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Nov 24, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 24 November 2025: US retail sales and PPI catch-up data for Sept, US Thanksgiving Holiday, Aus CPI, and RBNZ meeting
The Recap from Last Week: FOMC Minutes and the Catch-Up US Employment Data for Sept
FOMC Minutes – Risk Framing
The FOMC minutes confirmed the risk management nature of the October rate cut – based on the judgment of rising downside risks to employment, leaving “the labor market more susceptible to any negative shock”. This appeared to be a broadly supported decision (minus two dissents) as ‘most’ participants suggested the cut would help “to forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions”. However, there were still ‘some’ participants who noted that they could have supported a decision to stay on hold at this meeting also.
A key development was the divided outlook on the Dec meeting and the risks around a third consecutive rate cut. The minutes revealed the nature of that division along several lines, including the degree of policy restriction and risks around inflation. It’s worth noting that ‘most’ participants were pro-rate cuts “over time”, but it was a question of the cadence of those cuts, with ‘several’ of those participants noting a further cut as “not likely” appropriate in Dec.
The pro-hold camp noted concerns that inflation progress had stalled above the 2% target, while the policy stance was “not clearly restrictive”. They were concerned that a further reduction could add to the risk that still above-target inflation could “become entrenched” or the risk that another follow-up cut could signal a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2% target.
The pro-cut camp believes that the policy stance is still restrictive, even after the cut in Oct, and that further easing is needed to move towards a more ‘neutral’ policy stance to ensure against further downside risks to employment and aligning with the risk management or insurance cut rationale. This group believes that underlying inflation, removing tariff effects, is close to the 2% target, giving the Fed room to ease.
The immediate challenge for the Fed’s Dec meeting will still be a lack of US federal government data to help inform the assessment of the balance of risks.
The Missing US Data Hurdle & Policy Rhetoric
It was announced last week that the Oct jobs report would not be released and that data would be rolled into the Nov report, to be released on 16 December – six days after the Dec FOMC meeting. Market expectations for a cut in Dec fell notably after that announcement (assuming the Fed would take a cautious approach and stay on hold). More timely inflation data will also be delayed.
However, speeches last week emphasised that, despite the lack of government data, the Fed is not flying blind. This point was made in several speeches last week, including by Governor Waller early last week. Gov. Waller’s speech was made before the catch-up release of the US Employment data for Sept. He clearly supports another cut in Dec, “as a matter of risk management,” given that the labor market remains at stall speed. He believes policy is restrictive and is weighing on the economy, and a further cut in Dec will ensure against an acceleration in the weakening labor market. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson was a little more non-committal in his outlook. He also spoke about other useful data sources for the Fed and specifically mentioned the Fed Beige Book due out this week. He believed the policy stance is “somewhat restrictive”, but has moved closer to its neutral level. He emphasized the need to “proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate”. Later in the week, the speech by NY Fed President Williams was credited as the reason for a subsequent increase in rate-cut odds at the Dec meeting. He views monetary policy as still “modestly restrictive”, although somewhat less so after recent cuts, but still sees room for further adjustment “in the near term” to move the policy stance closer to the neutral range.
By the end of the week, rate cut odds had moved up from a 50-50 chance at the start of the week to approx. 70-30 in favour of a cut at Dec (Source: CME FedWatch Tool). This will continue to be a fluid situation.
Data to Assess the Balance of Risks
The catch-up US Employment Situation report for Sept delivered mixed messages, but its overall composition likely fails to negate the rising downside risks noted at the Fed’s Oct meeting. The unemployment rate increased notably to 4.4% (+0.12%pts in the month), yet this rise was not due to falling employment. Employment growth was positive, albeit modest, over Aug and Sept. The employment to population ratio for both 16yrs+ and the core working age group remained steady and elevated, also confirming a still low firing environment. The rise in unemployment over Aug and Sept was due to labor supply, including an increase in participation, growing at a faster pace than employment growth. Notwithstanding the stronger NFP print in Sept of +119k, this supply/demand imbalance, resulting in higher unemployment, is where the labor market risks remain.
More recent labor market signals also suggest that underlying risks remain. Up-to-date continuing claims data has moved back up to cycle highs, but is not providing a clear signal as it includes an elevated number of federal workers on furlough. While this rise may not signal a cyclical downturn, we still end up in the same place: labor market conditions that remain susceptible to a downturn. When layering on the rising Challenger job cuts announced in Oct, the overall picture suggests US labor market conditions may not have materially improved since Sept, but rather steadied at an elevated risk level.
On the activity front, the more recent news was still one of resilience. The most recent US prelim PMI for Nov shows some modest to moderate growth momentum. However, risks remain in the manufacturing sector, while services momentum remains moderate. US existing home sales remained steady at around 4.1m in Oct, while home builder sentiment remained little changed at subdued levels. Headline consumer sentiment in the Michigan survey fell within the margin of error, but sentiment around current conditions fell more notably amid “persistent high prices and weakening incomes” (source: Michigan Survey).
Global Signals on Inflation
The picture from global CPI reports was also mixed, with better news on inflation for both Canada and the UK. Canada’s lower-than-expected headline and underlying CPI for Oct confirmed the latest BoC comments on inflation that “upward momentum has dissipated.” The UK CPI was also lower than expected across headline, core, and services measures – also supporting the BoE assertion that inflation was deemed to have peaked. Inflation in Japan, however, is proving to be more persistent with headline and core measures moving back up to +3% in Oct.
Outlook for the week ahead: US retail sales & PPI catch-up data for Sept, US Thanksgiving Holiday, Aus CPI, and RBNZ meeting
The week ahead continues to focus on the catch-up of delayed US government data, specifically Sept retail sales and PPI, ahead of the Fed meeting on 10 Dec. A crucial hurdle for the Dec meeting will be the lack of up-to-date government inflation figures. Consequently, the Fed will rely heavily on anecdotal indicators like the Fed Beige Book, private sector reports, as well as some limited government data such as weekly Initial/Continuing Claims to frame its assessment of the balance of risks. This is the last week for Fed officials to offer policy guidance before the pre-meeting blackout period begins next week. Globally, watch for the Aus monthly CPI and the RBNZ policy decision.
It’s also a short week in the US with the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Federal Reserve speeches & data
- There are no official Fed speeches scheduled for this shortened week – see the official Fed calendar. Next week will be the blackout week for speeches ahead of the 10 Dec meeting.
- There will be one key Fed release this week – the Beige Book of anecdotes from regional contacts for the last six weeks. This will cover activity, prices, and labor market conditions. Last week, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson specifically noted this as a key release to watch in the absence of US government data.
US Data
- Data catch-up: US retail sales for Sept are expected to increase by +0.4% over the month versus +0.6% in Aug. The control group retail sales (what feeds into GDP expenditure) is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month from +0.7% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: US headline PPI for Sep is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month, up from -0.1% in Aug. Over the year, headline PPI is expected to increase to +2.7%, up from +2.6% in Aug.
- Data catch-up: Durable Goods orders Sept are expected to increase by +0.2% over the month, from +2.9% in Aug
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov is expected to edge lower to 93.4 from 94.6.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 22 Nov are expected to remain around the 220k level.
Updated US data release schedules
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) schedule page can be found here. The US Q3 GDP report, which was originally slated for release this week, will be rescheduled. There is also no date yet on the PCE inflation report for Sept, though the catch-up PPI for Sept is only being released this week.
- The US Census Bureau has yet to update its schedule, but the page can be found here.
Aus monthly CPI for Oct – this will be the first release of the full monthly inflation report. For now, though, the RBA will continue to focus on the quarterly data. The headline CPI is expected to increase by +3.5% over the year in Oct, unchanged from +3.5% in Sept. The monthly trimmed mean inflation is expected to increase to +3% in Oct, up from +2.8% in Sept.
The RBNZ will meet this week and is expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut.
The UK government budget is scheduled for release this week on 26 Nov. The budget is expected to contain measures that could impact the BoE’s decision-making, which was anticipated at its last meeting. That recent BoE decision was extremely divided, resulting in a 5-4 vote in favor of a pause while the committee awaited more economic evidence and the details of the budget measures.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $619bn in ST Bills, TIPS, and FRNs, raising approx. $66bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes early this week – and all will settle on 1 Dec, next week.
QT this week: Approx $14.5bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Nov 17, 2025
The key events shaping the w/c 17 November 2025: FOMC Minutes & Speeches, US Employment Situation for Sept, Prelim PMIs Nov, global CPI reports
Recap from last week: Data Catch-Up Begins
The US government shutdown has officially ended, shifting the focus from political gridlock to the messy process of data catch-up. The first major release confirmed by the BLS is the Sept Employment Situation Report, due late this week, which is important, but now a significantly lagging report.
This will also put the spotlight squarely back on the incoming economic releases, potentially enabling the Fed to address its internal division on the policy outlook. This week, timely, yet soft, data points may contrast with the “stale” US catch-up data, but could start to provide some direction for the Fed ahead of Dec.
US Activity and the Data Vacuum
Last week was a particularly quiet week for any US economic data. The NFIB small business optimism index for Oct was consistent with several other business surveys showing some weakening in optimism in the outlook. Small business optimism fell slightly in Oct – reflecting reports of “lower sales and reduced profits”. However, the uncertainty index fell notably, to its lowest level of the year.
Preliminary private sector labor data suggested a weakening in job growth through the latter part of Oct. The new weekly ADP payrolls series (The NER Pulse) shows the preliminary estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. This week’s data reflects the week ending 25 Oct and shows the change in the 4-weekly average at -11k for private job creation. This preliminary data is two weeks advanced from the prior monthly ADP report (+42k) and suggests job creation may have slowed.
In a separate policy development, the ongoing impact of inflation on households and consumer sentiment appears to have registered with the US government. Late last week, an announcement was made to reduce tariffs on key imported food items and implement other measures aimed at addressing consumer inflation (source: Bloomberg).
Policy Implications: The Divided FOMC
Fed speeches from some of the more hawkish members underscored the division within the FOMC ahead of their next meeting, reinforcing the importance of the incoming data catch-up. Boston Fed President Collins, though supporting the Oct cut as “prudent,” is comfortable being on hold in Dec, citing the risk that “providing further monetary support risks slowing or stalling the return of inflation to target” (source: Bloomberg). Conversely, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (an Oct dissenter) argued that further cuts are unlikely to fix structural labor market issues but could jeopardize the 2% inflation objective.
At this point, rate cut probabilities reflect the divided Fed, with now only approximately a 50% probability of a cut priced in for Dec (source: CME FedWatch). This is a highly fluid situation, and forthcoming data and Fed speeches from some of the doves this week could easily shift these probabilities again.
Global Central Banks and Data Implications
Outside of the US, key data releases in Aus and the UK offered fresh insights following their recent respective central bank meetings.
In Aus, the Oct labour market report was solid, reversing some of the recent increase in the unemployment rate. Employment growth increased, while participation stayed unchanged (after notably rising last month), causing the unemployment rate to fall back to 4.3%. For the RBA, this strong report, coupled with easing financial conditions and a lift in mortgage commitments, and the recent return of underlying inflation to above the target band, casts further doubt over whether policy is still “a little restrictive.” Market pricing currently reflects the likelihood of an extended pause.
Meanwhile, the UK labor market continued to show signs of slowing, with both the employment rate falling and the unemployment rate rising to 5.0%, alongside slower wage growth. GDP growth also decelerated more than expected, slowing to +0.1% in Q3 (from +0.3% in Q2). These slowing growth and labor market metrics play directly into concerns over slack building in the UK economy, supporting the dovish case for a rate cut at the last BoE meeting. However, the immediate focus remains on next week’s (26 Nov) UK budget measures.
Outlook for the week ahead: FOMC Minutes & Speeches, US Employment Situation for Sept, Prelim PMIs Nov, global CPI data
The focus this week is on a mix of data catch-up and a busy week of current data releases and US Fed speeches. US statistical agencies will provide broader guidance on when and how the official US government data flow will normalize. Crucially, the recommencement of US data releases begins this week with the important, albeit lagging, Sept Employment Situation Report (expected Thursday). This will contrast with a busy calendar of timelier (albeit softer) US data releases, as well as the FOMC minutes, a notable number of Fed speeches, the S&P preliminary PMIs for Nov, and global CPI reports.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Updated US data release schedules.
- So far, we have confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of two reports this week: The Employment Situation for Sept – this will be released on Thursday, 20 Nov. The second is Real Earnings for Sept – to be released on Friday, 21 Nov.
- Link to the BLS page for the revised news release is here.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Aug International Trade in Goods & Services this week. The schedule will continue to be updated, and its page can be found here. So far, there is no update on a PCE inflation data due date.
- The US Census Bureau has yet to update its schedule, but the page can be found here.
US Federal Reserve: Minutes & Speeches.
The focus of speeches remains on the division among FOMC members about the policy outlook for Dec.
- The FOMC minutes of the Oct meeting will be released this week. While the Oct decision to cut was broadly consensus (two dissents), the outlook for Dec reflected ”strongly differing views”. The minutes should provide some insight into the discussion for the short-term policy outlook, as well as the decision to end QT.
- There will be numerous Fed speeches through the week – see the official Fed calendar. There are two key speeches this week that will focus on ‘the economic outlook’ – with at least one of those speeches likely to support a more dovish outlook for Dec. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Fed Governor Waller will both give speeches on the ‘economic outlook’ this week – though these two speeches are not likely to incorporate any updated data.
US Data
Private sector reports for housing, Fed manufacturing surveys for Nov, and the US employment situation for Sept.
- The Employment Situation for Sept – this will be released on Thursday, 20 Nov. There are no estimates for the release. For comparison: the last payroll change for Aug was +22k, while the unemployment rate had edged up to 4.32% from 4.25%. The market will be parsing this report not just for the Sept context, but for any directional clues it might offer for the outlook.
- Also part of the data catch-up will be: Real Earnings for Sept and International Trade for Aug.
- Initial jobless claims for the wk ending 15 Nov are a TBC from the Dept of Labor.
- Housing data will be a combination of existing home sales (expecting 4.06m annualized in Oct) and home builder sentiment (NAHB Housing Market Index).
- There will be a range of US Fed Manufacturing Surveys for Nov – providing the first view of manufacturing activity mid-way through Q4.
- This will be supplemented by the release this week of the S&P prelim PMIs for Nov. One of the key points from the PMIs last month was the notable downshift in optimism in the outlook for Oct – so it will be important to see if this resolved.
- The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Nov will also be important to see whether sentiment rebounded; however, it’s likely to be too early to see a broad impact from the resolution of the shutdown.
Global CPI Reports – Oct
- UK CPI for Oct is expected to be 0% over the month, after 0% in Sep. The annual rate is expected to ease slightly from last month’s +3.8% rate. Core inflation is expected to ease to +3.4% in Oct from +3.5% in Sept. The services inflation rate will also be in focus – and is expected to be little changed again at +4.7%.
- Canada CPI for Oct is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month, up from +0.1% in Sept. The annual rate is expected to be little changed at +2.4%. Measures of core inflation are expected to ease. Trimmed mean inflation is expected to increase by +3% over the year in Oct, down from +3.1% in Sept, while the median CPI is expected to increase by +3.1% in Oct, down from +3.2% in Sept.
- The focus of Japan’s National CPI for Oct will be the key BoJ core CPI measure ex fresh food, which is expected to accelerate slightly to +3% in Oct from +2.9% in Sept. The earlier Tokyo CPI inflation for Oct had been a little hotter over the month across all headline measures.
- Euro area – final for Oct is expected to confirm headline inflation at +2.1% and core inflation at +2.4% over the year.
Aus – Wages and RBA Minutes
- The latest RBA Minutes will be released this week. While the decision to stay on hold was unanimous, the minutes may provide insight into the discussion around how restrictive policy settings are, as well as the rationale for the change in guidance to include “in both directions”.
- The Wage Price Index for Q3 is expected to increase by +0.8% over the quarter and remain unchanged at +3.4% over the year.
S&P Prelim PMIs for Nov.
S&P Prelim PMIs for Nov will be released for key developed markets. There were several themes and similarities in the reports in Oct – weakening global demand, especially across manufacturing sectors, and weaker sentiment in the outlook.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $657bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $59bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 10-year TIPS and 20-year Bond – both will settle at the end of the month.
QT this week: Approx $33bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $2.3bn in Notes & Bonds will mature and be redeemed and roll off the Fed balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
